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by Menaka Doshi

Welcome to India Edition, I’m Menaka Doshi. Join me each week for a ringside view of the billionaires, businesses and policy decisions behind India’s rise as an emerging economic powerhouse.

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This week: Why diamonds are no longer India’s best friend, a mega private-credit deal in the making and can Kapil Chopra succeed where other hoteliers have failed?

Losing Shine

Even a last-minute scramble against Trump’s tariffs has failed to stem the decline in the fortunes of a sector that employs several million and contributes 15% of India’s exports.

In the first week of April, hundreds of diamantaires in one of the world’s largest diamond bourses, located in downtown Mumbai, rushed to ship extra loads of their precious cargo, some despite the lack of firm orders, to beat Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement on April 2. 

From April 1-4, India’s gem and jewelry exports to the US, its biggest market, rose fivefold to $512 million over the same period last year.

The industry council worked in tandem with exporters and customs officials to ensure quick passage of diamonds and jewelry. “It took us less effort than Apple,” quipped Sabyasachi Ray, secretary of the Gems and Jewelry Export Promotion Council (GJEPC), referring to news reports on how the tech giant chartered cargo planes to export Indian-made phones before tariff-hour struck.

Despite the frontloading, April exports came in 4.6% lower than last year, extending a yearslong trend of declining overseas sales. Average annual exports are down to about $33 billion in the last five years versus over $40 billion in the decade before that.

“In the 70s, when I came to Mumbai from Calcutta, the diamond business was the most glamorous in the country and money was easy to make. Now it is not like that,” Mehul Shah, vice president of the Bharat Diamond Bourse, said to me in his cubbyhole office about 25 feet away from where his sorters were examining a small fortune in shiny stones.

Shah recalls heady days of over 100% profit margins in diamond manufacturing that are now down to less than 10% because of “overtrading, overcompetition and super saturation.”

But jewelry, which he also exports, is faring somewhat better.

Mehul Shah, vice president of the Bharat Diamond Bourse and chairman of the Gemmological Institute of India. Photographer: Menaka Doshi

India has for long been the largest exporter of cut and polished diamonds in the world, making up over 80% by volume and 65% by value globally. In jewelry, where China leads, India is now climbing the value-addition ladder — from wholesale supplies for American retailers to top Indian brands like Zoya and Joyalukkas setting up stores in Chicago, Houston and New Jersey.

Both segments though have been hit hard by the soaring popularity of ever-cheaper lab-grown diamonds, which has weighed on natural diamond prices, and a demand slump in key markets like China and the US amid currency volatility and rising gold prices.

This year, Trump’s tariffs may push exports significantly lower.

A reciprocal tariff of 26% (paused at 10%) will raise product prices and dent a US demand recovery. India’s sales there may slump by up to 50%, estimates Ray, though American jewelry manufacturers and retailers will also hurt.

While the GJEPC is lobbying the US to exempt diamonds like some precious metals, Indian exporters are examining other options — including shifting jewelry production, especially low-value machine-made items like chains, to countries facing lower tariffs.

Even as trade with the US is up in the air, India’s deals with the UAE and UK may provide some relief, making it tough to estimate how the year will end. 

Diamond sorting in Mehul Shah’s office in Bharat Diamond Bourse, Mumbai. Photographer: Menaka Doshi

External headwinds aside, the gems and jewelry sector has several internal challenges to overcome, from industry fragmentation to manufacturing technology. Shah is working on standardized quality certification of natural diamonds to revive consumer confidence and a graduate-level skilling program to draw more talent to a craft that hasn’t quite got its due.

If he was 17 all over again and just arrived in Mumbai he would rather start a tech business than diamonds, he tells me. Luckily he didn’t, and I spent time this week in the company of sparklers rather than code.

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On the Spot: Can Chopra Build India’s Aman?

There are two things most of us detest when on holiday — waiting for hours because of inflexible check-in or check-out times and waking up early to catch breakfast. Kapil Chopra’s Postcard Hotel chain has fixed both those pain points.

Its 11 properties, mostly small and in secluded locations, offer palatial rooms with magnificent views, as well check-ins, check-outs and breakfast at any time. For loyalty club members there’s also free laundry. “For 32 years no one has attempted to build a luxury hotel brand in India. We thought it was time,” Chopra said.

It’s a tough business where funding constraints have resulted in a high founder-exit rate, from Aman’s Adrian Zecha to Leela’s CP Krishnan Nair. Even the vaunted Oberoi Group needed an Ambani rescue. Luckily Chopra’s got market timing on his side with India’s burgeoning millionaire class looking for more than just legacy palace hotels

He says the lack of exceptional new properties is the biggest challenge facing India’s luxury hotel market. “If you’re waking up in Dallas or London, why would you choose to visit India? How many times can you visit the Taj Mahal?” he said. 

Kapil Chopra founded The Postcard Hotel in 2018. Source: The Postcard Hotel

This interview has been condensed from video and email conversations and lightly edited for clarity.

Besides a unique service approach, how are you disrupting product strategy?

The first pillar is to build fast to minimize cost of construction. We built our Leh hotel in 11 months. And to build for the future with sustainable materials from that region like basalt and kadapa over Italian marble. Our Assam hotel has mud walls, which are six degrees cooler, and lower energy costs.

The second is to double the room size and build intergenerational hotels. The standard luxury hotel room is 400 square feet, ours is 800 square feet. In our Ranthambore hotel it is 1,950 square feet. Jeff Bezos of Amazon says focus on what’s not going to change in the next 10 years. Well, 10, 20, 30 years later people are not going to say I don’t need a bigger room.

And the final part of the product disruption is to build in five key locations — mountains, forests, beaches, palaces and wine/tea/coffee estates. The destination itself is the story. 

How does a new brand compete with established luxury brands in the country?

A lot of hotels fail for one reason and that is if you don’t have distribution sorted out. So 33% of your hotel’s success is product, 33% is service and 34% is distribution. We’ve partnered with banks and cards like Citi, American Express, Axis Burgundy, HSBC, and airlines. We are Singapore Airlines’ only hotel partner in India. Do you know the Tata-owned Vistara Airlines’ first hotel partner was Postcard Hotels? When I met their chief commercial officer I asked how come the group’s hotel business was not a partner. He said they never asked. I got Vistara to sign a one-year exclusivity with me.

The Postcard Hotel’s property in Assam has 12 chalets located in a 1,400-acre tea estate. Source: The Postcard Hotel

What’s your financial model to succeed when so many before you have failed or sold out?

Most hotel companies now work on management contracts or asset-lite strategies. Postcard is among the few luxury chains to also do revenue-share leases, especially for smaller properties. This gives me skin in the game and I can operate the hotel to my standards. The property owner gets the first cut of revenue, but if the hotel succeeds my return is higher than just a management fee. We also charge a technical services fee for project development and that gives us some cushion for the first few months when a new hotel launches. We are a profitable business with a portfolio occupancy of 54% at 32,092 rupees ($376) per night average room rate. 

You are adding more than 20 new hotels in the next three years. What about capital requirements beyond the 200 million rupees you raised a few years ago?

That was raised by just one project company. The Postcard Hotel currently has 22 such special purpose vehicles. Each SPV either involves a family office that owns the asset or an institutional fund. For instance, we have DMI Alternative Investment Fund-Special Opportunities Scheme as our partner in Ranthambore. Similarly, other institutional funds, including real estate and sovereign funds, are now investing in both single hotel projects and multiple hotel portfolios. We expect to make an official announcement on this very soon. 

Our structure is intentionally complex. Unlike a traditional company, we have structured ourselves asset-wise and at an operational level. Even at the operational level, we have raised significant capital. This approach keeps us debt-free, prevents balance sheet leverage, and allows us to make long-term strategic decisions to build the company for the next 20 to 30 years. This structure is, in many ways, our secret sauce.

What’s the one brand you hope to outdo over time?

Aman Resorts. I’m not building just for India. Where is that Indian hotel brand in Barcelona, in Madrid, in Paris? One very large Indian hotel group with deep pockets went international and failed spectacularly. They had to sell some of those properties. Because you don’t go to the US to build hotels. US is the Waterloo.

I’ve been trying to do a whisky hotel in the Scottish Highlands for the last three years. I’ve been trying to do a hotel in the Greek islands. I have ambitions for Asia. Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand get a lot of Indian tourists. There are no Indian hotel brands there. India will be the fifth-largest outbound travel economy by 2027 but there are no Indian hotels outside India. At Postcard our mission for the first seven years was to focus on India. Our next seven-year mission is India and the world.

Any summer vacation plans? What’s on your travel bucket list? Email me at indiaedition@bloomberg.net. Thanks for reading. — Menaka

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