Balance of Power

Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up here.

For years, Donald Trump has boasted that only he has the talent and cunning to stare down the world’s strongmen. Where his predecessors failed, he would succeed.

In Trump’s telling on the campaign trail, the negotiating skills he honed in the rough and tumble of New York’s real estate sector meant he was uniquely suited to end conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza and seal a trade deal with China.

Now Trump’s “Art of the Deal” reputation — puffed up by administration officials who call him the best negotiator to serve as president to date — is taking fresh hits.

Vladimir Putin isn’t backing down in Ukraine, Iran won’t give up its nuclear program, and China isn’t playing ball on trade. Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas have largely ignored Trump’s entreaties to stop air strikes or release hostages.

“I like President XI of China, always have, and always will, but he is VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH!!!” Trump wrote in a social-media post yesterday, a surprise admission and a stark contrast to his usual braggadocio.

WATCH: Ashton Analytics founder Anna Ashton speaks on Bloomberg TV about US-China ties.

Hours later, he held a call with Putin and conceded it was “not a conversation that will lead to immediate Peace.”

That too marked a major reversal. Just recently, Trump’s secretary of state, Marco Rubio, said only a direct call between the two leaders would bring the war to an end. But Putin has repeatedly made clear he’s in no mood to give Trump the ceasefire he’s demanded.

The US president’s pattern of backing down on tariffs meanwhile spawned the now-famous Taco Trade — Trump Always Chickens Out.

Leaders like Putin and Xi — not to mention those in Iran and Venezuela — appear to have come up with their own way of handling Trump. He may not chicken out, but waiting him out seems to work just as well. — Nick Wadhams

Xi shakes hands with Putin at the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing in October 2023. Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

Global Must Reads

Trump said that Putin told him on their call that he’ll retaliate against Ukraine for its recent drone strikes on military airfields deep inside Russian territory. Trump, who’s due to host German Chancellor Friedrich Merz today, didn’t say if he tried to dissuade Putin and made no reference to additional sanctions or his repeated calls for a ceasefire.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, in a meeting with a top security aide to Putin, reiterated his pledge to unconditionally support the Russian president, as the sanctions-defying alliance between the two countries stokes international security concerns. Kim has sent troops to assist Russia’s war on Ukraine and has highlighted the military experience his forces are gaining in modern combat theaters.

In this photo provided by the North Korean government, Kim Jong Un meets with Putin aide Sergei Shoigu, left, in Pyongyang yesterday. Source: Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service/AP Photo

Trump signed a proclamation banning individuals from 12 countries from entering the US, reinstating one of the most controversial measures from his first term. The president has blamed the immigration policies of his predecessor for the presence of the suspect in an attack in Colorado that targeted Israeli-hostage supporters. He also suspended the visas of foreign students applying for exchange programs at Harvard University.

Elon Musk is on a mission to block Trump’s tax bill after he tried — and failed — to convince Republican lawmakers to preserve valuable tax credits for electric vehicles, sources say. The world’s richest person and Tesla CEO ratcheted up his offensive against the legislation, urging Americans to contact their lawmakers to “KILL” the bill.

China is intensifying efforts to collect taxes on citizens’ overseas income, expanding its scrutiny to less wealthy individuals after targeting the ultra-rich last year, sources say. Officials are now assessing a broad range of offshore income, including investment returns, dividends and employee stock options.

China has placed a bounty on cyberwarriors working for Taiwan’s defense ministry, extending its campaign to squeeze President Lai Ching-te.

Netanyahu’s ruling coalition faced the possibility of collapse and early elections after his ultra-Orthodox partners threatened to quit and bring down the government.

Turkish authorities removed five local opposition mayors from office and launched an investigation into their party leader in a widening judicial crackdown.

The Netherlands may hold a general election as early as Oct. 29, after far-right leader Geert Wilders pulled his Freedom Party out of the Dutch government when his coalition partners rejected his proposals to curb immigration.

Europe’s defense sector is in the middle of major upheaval as nations race to ramp up military spending in the face of Russian aggression and pressure from Trump. Join us for a Live Q&A today at 1 p.m. London/8 a.m. ET.

Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter for news from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television.

Chart of the Day

The European Central Bank is set to lower interest rates for an eighth time today as Trump’s jolts to global trade complicate the outlook for inflation and the economy. The deposit rate will be cut by a quarter point to 2%, according to all analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Another reduction is expected in September, when trade talks with the US should have concluded and fresh forecasts will reveal the tariffs’ full implications.

And Finally

The euro zone is poised to continue its eastward expansion after Bulgaria was deemed ready to become the common currency bloc’s 21st member next year. The European Commission and the ECB said in separate reports that all the requirements on issues including inflation and public debt had been fulfilled by the Black Sea nation of 6.4 million.

Global Must Reads

Chart of the Day

And Finally

More from Bloomberg