| Good morning and welcome to White House Watch. Let’s jump into: As Israel and Iran entered their fifth day of war, Donald Trump last night rushed back to Washington from the G7 summit in Canada and urged for Tehran to be evacuated immediately. The president’s decision to abandon the gathering has raised the prospect of greater US involvement alongside Israel. “You probably see what I see and I have to be back as soon as I can,” Trump told reporters late yesterday ahead of his departure. “I wish I could stay for tomorrow, but they understand. This is big stuff.” Trump has said he’d still like to resolve the conflict through diplomacy, and French President Emmanuel Macron said the US president told G7 leaders there were discussions under way to obtain a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Trump later lambasted Macron for his comments, saying in a social media post that his return to Washington “certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire”. Trump hasn’t ruled out US involvement in Israel’s military campaign. Over the weekend he told ABC News that “it’s possible we could get involved.” He has also vowed to use “the full strength and might” of the American military against Iran “at levels never seen before” if Iran attacks any US assets in the region. So far, the US has helped Israel shoot down incoming missiles and drones from Iran, but has maintained it is not involved in Israel’s bombing campaign of Iran. As he weighs further US military involvement, Trump said this morning that US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee told him no president “has been in a position like yours. Not since [Harry] Truman in 1945”. The war could last weeks as Israel pursues its goals of wiping out Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal, multiple nuclear enrichment facilities and weakening the regime [free to read]. For its part, Iran has said it will only negotiate an end to the war and resume talks over its nuclear programme if Israel halts its bombing campaign, according to diplomats in the region. US intervention could be decisive. For example, to penetrate Fordow, a key Iranian nuclear facility buried half a kilometre beneath a mountain, the Israel Defense Forces would need big bunker-busting bombs that it doesn’t currently have. But it’s not only the bombs that Israel lacks — it’s the planes to carry them. This means US B-2 bombers would need to drop them. This scenario would be a huge political risk for Trump, who sees himself as a peacemaker, since he would be breaking an anti-war pledge he made to his Maga base. In the meantime, the US has bolstered its military presence in the region, with the Pentagon moving a carrier strike group from the South China Sea yesterday to “sustain our defensive posture and safeguard American personnel”, according to a US defence official.
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Almost 70,000 people have signed up for the Trump Card, a visa scheme led by commerce secretary Howard Lutnick that would give legal US residency to foreigners for $5mn a pop. The US Senate’s version of Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax bill doesn’t propose raising the cap on state and local tax deductions, threatening to torpedo the flagship legislation. Trump has directed his administration to implement the US-UK trade deal, ensuring British exports of jet engines and other aerospace parts are spared from Washington’s tariffs. The conflict between Israel and Iran will probably reinforce the US Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to cutting interest rates. The Trump Organization announced plans to launch a mobile cell service and a $499 phone, the latest effort by the president’s family business to capitalise on his return to the White House.
With war raging in the Middle East, the vibes at the G7 went from bad to worse yesterday. After a day of intense diplomacy in the mountain resort of Kananaskis, Alberta, Trump dipped out early when he was supposed to stay until today. The group’s host, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, was never under the illusion it would be able to project unity among the world leaders in attendance amid this new war between Israel and Iran. But the fresh conflict builds upon existing tensions over differing approaches to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The FT’s James Politi, who was at the high-level gathering, told me: “That scepticism seemed justified at the end of the first day of the summit, with the US resisting to sign on to any joint statement on the Middle East, but then getting on board in the end. And Trump openly doubted the need for new sanctions on Moscow, which many European leaders and members of Congress are calling for.” Upon his arrival, Trump was in no mood to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the group’s first summit. Instead, he complained about Russia’s exclusion from the group ever since it invaded Crimea in 2014, making things a bit awkward for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who was supposed to meet Trump today. On the plus side, Trump agreed with UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, to implement the trade pact they reached last month. He also said he held a meeting with Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, raising hopes that they can avoid a burst of new transatlantic tariffs next month. But it’s really not the unified front one might expect in the face of serious global challenges. While political assassinations in the US are treated as black swan events, they have “moved into a grey swan zone” as “would-be political killers swim in increasingly hospitable waters”, writes Edward Luce, following the killing of a Democratic state lawmaker in Minnesota. Los Angeles bureau chief Christopher Grimes writes about the city’s eerie streets as Trump’s immigration crackdown sweeps up undocumented migrants, or keeps them hiding at home. Gideon Rachman points out the “supreme irony” if Trump, who has pledged to be a global peacemaker, should find himself dragged into another war for regime change in the Middle East. Former MI6 chief Sir John Sawers says that while Israel is achieving its goals in Iran so far, “we shouldn’t expect a liberal pro-western government to emerge” in Tehran.
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