A defining feature of President Donald Trump’s second presidency is a pattern of firmly setting out on one course only to change direction, sometimes more than once. These reversals have come on issues ranging from imposing tariffs, to deporting farmworkers, to choosing which federal workers to cut and even what position the United States takes in global battles. What’s behind these abrupt changes? Philip Luck, an economist and former Biden trade official now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Trump has moved quickly to reshape the federal government and international alliances. But he has often backed down when these sudden shifts have threatened to create untenable situations — such as tariffs potentially tipping the nation into a financial crisis, or farmers warning of empty grocery store shelves. “You’re going to move fast, break a lot of stuff, and then hopefully you will change course quickly — but you will still cause a lot of havoc and economic and human harm in the meantime,” he said. Trump’s actions this week underscore this pattern. Here’s what’s going on. Not signing, then signing a statement calling for Middle East de-escalation This week, seven major economies — called the Group of Seven — are holding a summit in Canada. Trump briefly attended and was at odds with leaders on one of the most pressing international issues: the military conflict between Israel and Iran. Trump initially opposed adding the U.S. to a statement calling for a “broader de-escalation of hostilities” in the Middle East. Then he signed it. The Washington Post described it as “a rare showing of cooperation” for the president. Trump has little problem siding with countries that are adversaries. Earlier this year, the U.S. voted against a United Nations resolution condemning Russia for its war in Ukraine, voting alongside Russia, North Korea and other Moscow-friendly countries. Saying farmworkers shouldn’t be deported, then announcing deportations of farmworkers The Trump administration appears to be ramping up deportations, arresting people in their workplaces and in their communities — something that hasn’t happened at scale in modern America. But to reach its mass deportation goals, the administration will need to focus on where the majority of undocumented workers are: on farms and in the food industry. The administration began investigating industrial food plants and construction sites and detaining hundreds of workers, The Post reports. Then, last week, the administration issued guidance to immigration officials not to target farms or the hospitality industry for raids. “Our great Farmers and people in the Hotel and Leisure business have been stating that our very aggressive policy on immigration is taking very good, long time workers away from them, with those jobs being almost impossible to replace,” Trump said on social media. This week, officials were told to raid agricultural businesses, hotels and restaurants, The Post reports. This goes against warnings from the industry that the moves will raise food prices and even cause grocery store shortages. “This is just going to make food more expensive and it’s going to destroy jobs, even citizen jobs,” Luck said. The pressure to deport 3,000 immigrants a day seems to be winning out over business concerns, said Doris Meissner, who was a top immigration official under President Bill Clinton and is a senior fellow at the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute. She noted that the deportation quotas are creating contradictions between the administration’s stated focus on deporting violent criminals and its increasing raids that detain people who don’t have a criminal background. “The difficulties are ramping up in terms of the resources that are required, the impact it has on the labor markets and communities, and the contradictions it’s creating,” she said. “So there’s a whiplash that is taking place, and I’m not sure where it will ultimately come down.” Trump keeps issuing — then pausing — tariffs He announced and then paused broad tariffs within a week. He announced, then paused, higher tariffs on the European Union over a long weekend, and he started a trade war with China that virtually stopped the flow of goods between the world’s two largest economies in a matter of days, later backing down in what was largely seen as a win for China. Trump went Monday to the G-7, where he spoke with several allied countries with whom he has engaged in a trade war, and appeared not to be willing to back down. “I’m a tariff person,” Trump said at the G-7 while meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. “I’ve always been a tariff — simple. It’s easy, it’s precise, and it just goes very quickly,” The confusion over the import taxes is debilitating for businesses, economists say. And that could hinder businesses’ hiring or investment plans and could ultimately bring job losses. “The longer [uncertainty] stays elevated,” Nancy Lazar, the chief global economist at the investment bank Piper Sandler, said in a recent interview, “the weaker the economy will get as business confidence gets hit.” |