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Today’s Agenda

Is Private Equity Cooked?

Last night, I went to the movie theater and saw Materialists. Some people have called it “poor man propaganda,” but I kinda loved it. And honestly, I sympathize with the filmmakers. They had the impossible task of making Pedro Pascal, of all people, undesirable. Their solution? Let’s just say it involved a secret Napoleon complex and — gasp!!! — a job in private equity.

Who would you choose: A broke cater waiter or a PE bro with a $12 million Tribeca penthouse who can buy you omakase? Source: A24, Materialists

Wait. Since when did PE become such an “unattractive” career path? A mere 12 months ago, everyone was singing the “looking for a man in finance, trust fund, 6’5, blue eyes” song, but the public has since soured on the industry. Private equity is now “the primary villain of the US economy — responsible for the high cost of everything from housing to health care,” writes Allison Schrager.

It hasn’t always been that way. As Allison says “many of the criticisms are unfair, as the presence of private equity investment is often a symptom rather than a cause of a struggling market or business.” But the industry has ballooned to a point where it’s bloated: “In 2003, private equity made up less than 4% of equity markets. Now it’s more than 10%. Assets under management grew exponentially during the 2010s and are now more than $5 trillion.”

For a time, those assets brought in big returns. But in recent years, PE lost the pep in its step, resulting in subpar returns, fewer exits and fewer payouts. “The outlook isn’t much better, with higher interest rates making leverage more expensive and buyouts less profitable,” she writes. “Could it be that there is a limit on the size of an industry that deploys capital outside of public markets?” Read the whole thing to find out.

Trump Mobile

On Friday, President Donald Trump’s financial disclosure forms revealed that he earned $57.7 million from the crypto venture he launched with his sons last year. On Monday, his sons launched Trump Mobile, a new “transformational” cell phone company that sounds eerily similar to Ryan ReynoldsMint Mobile. And on Tuesday, we learned that India’s richest man is throwing money at Trump’s real estate business.

Will this family’s thirst for money-making side hustles ever subside?

Probably not. “Trump has always been a human shingle, willing to license his name on almost anything to almost any bidder,” writes Timothy L. O’Brien (free read). He’s raked in tens of millions of dollars in royalty payments while he’s been in office: Trump watches. Trump Bibles. Trump coffee table books. Trump sneakers. Trump perfumes. Trump NFTs. There are even Trump guitars.

“Although the Trumps and the White House emphasize that Trump’s holdings are in a trust, it’s a trust overseen by his eldest son, Donald Jr.,” Tim explains. And Donald Jr. and his brother are trying their best to turn the White House into a Walmart Supercenter. With the cell phone announcement, Tim says “the sons go out of their way to invoke Trump’s political movement by noting that Trump Mobile — a startup phone service, mind you — is ‘building on the movement to put America first’ … what they are really putting first is their wallets.”

Case in point? The $499 gold-colored smartphone they claim will be “MADE IN THE USA” is probably gonna come from a factory in China.

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Pizza Oil

I really appreciate the ingenuity involved with the Pentagon pizza monitor. As Matt Levine describes it: “The busier those pizzerias are, the busier the Pentagon probably is, which probably means some geopolitical stuff is going down, which probably means oil prices are going up.” That’s an awful lot of “probably’s” to base any sound financial decision on! For instance: “Maybe some unrelated business near the Pentagon needed a lot of pizzas; maybe the Pentagon’s softball championship is that day; maybe the geopolitical stuff will reduce the price of oil,” writes Matt.

On Monday, for instance, John Authers says the oil price fell despite Israel and Iran continuing to pelt each other with bombs and missiles. I won’t try and correlate that activity with late-night Domino’s orders, but I can tell you that oil prices are back up again today after Trump fueled speculation that the US is going to jump in the fray.

Where might the conflict be going next? Tracking Pete Hegseth’s pizza orders will only get you so far, so I’d suggest subscribing to John’s newsletter for the latest market analysis.

Bonus Big Oil Reading:

  • The US has forgotten the purpose of its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The Israel-Iran war is a great reminder. — Javier Blas
  • Adnoc’s bid for Santos shows oil producers are going after LNG to counter declining demand and war. — David Fickling

Telltale Housing Charts

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac sure have come a loooong way since they almost went belly up during the ’08 financial crisis. Under America’s conservatorship, Bloomberg’s editorial board says the mortgage giants have “returned more than $300 billion to the Treasury” and “make homeownership easier for millions of Americans, guaranteeing about 40% of all single-family home loans and keeping credit flowing even through recessions.” That doesn’t sound like something the White House would want to let go of! And yet Trump says he’s considering re-privatization. Tsk, tsk.

Hallelujah! Britain’s Labour government is finally shelling out the big bucks to boost spending on affordable homes. Matthew Brooker says the new £39 billion funding plan “has the potential to pay for itself in wider economic benefits and even lead to a healthier private property market.” As it stands, the system is broken: “The government shelled out £35 billion in housing benefit last financial year — triple in real terms what it was paying at the start of the 1990s. And yet the number of homeless has soared,” he writes.

Further Reading

Israel has a model for handling Iran — in Lebanon. — Marc Champion

The G-7 was a great idea — until it became one against six. — Andreas Kluth

Trump portrays blue states as un-American to normalize treating them like the enemy. — Ronald Brownstein

The White House’s immigration crackdown is full of economic contradictions. — Jonathan Levin

India’s rising number of bank frauds won't go away for free. — Andy Mukherjee

A real estate developer that’s twice as important as Evergrande? What could possibly go wrong? — Shuli Ren

ICYMI

Brad Lander got arrested by ICE agents.

Ken Griffin takes on “Wall Street South.”

William Langewiesche was funny as hell.

Kids are protesting ICE in Roblox.

Kickers

The Spanish Steps are not for driving.

Are matcha men the new soy boys?

A 158-pound halibut with no prize.

Notes: Please send Instant Pots and feedback to Je