Balance of Power
Trump and Xi are on opposite sides on the Israel-Iran conflict
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Israel’s campaign to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program is emerging as another faultline in US-China ties, with Donald Trump and Xi Jinping picking opposite sides.

The Chinese leader said yesterday he was “deeply worried” about the unravelling security situation in the Middle East, after his officials condemned Israel’s attack as a “violation of international law.” Xi also offered to play a role in any peace process, but was vague on specifics.

In stark contrast, hours later Trump issued a veiled death threat against Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, declaring he wasn’t going to kill him — “for now” — and demanding Iran’s total surrender.

Missiles over Tel Aviv yesterday. Photographer: Mostafa Alkharouf/Getty Images

China’s siding with the Islamic Republic shouldn’t come as a surprise. Just as Washington has long backed Israel, Beijing has been moving closer to Iran, inking a $400 billion investment pact in 2021, then not long after brokering a diplomatic détente between Tehran and Saudi Arabia.

That friendship, however, has mostly been in service of opposing the US. Case in point: China takes some 90% of Iran’s oil exports — an affront to the White House’s sanctions regime that Beijing staunchly opposes.

Xi has also thrown political capital behind Iran. In 2023, Beijing welcomed Tehran into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization security group, and followed up by ushering it into the ever-expanding BRICS.

None of that means he’ll rush to Iran’s rescue. China, after all, is a nation with no formal allies. Even Xi’s support for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine is limited to assistance that won’t trigger any major economic backlash from Western democracies.

So, while Xi’s calls for peace might appear the more grown-up response, Beijing’s friends will likely hear another message: When the missiles are flying, China is still all talk, no action. Jenni Marsh

Xi in Beijing on May 13.  Photographer: Tingshu Wang/AFP/Getty Images

Global Must Reads

Iran’s proxy militias are absent from the Israel-Iran war despite their commitment to bringing about the Jewish nation’s demise. Most notable is Lebanon’s Hezbollah, once seen as the greatest asset of Iran’s “axis of resistance” but now a mere bystander in the current conflict after Israel killed many of its leaders and destroyed much of its arsenal last year.

Demonstrators wave Hezbollah and Iranian flags during a rally in Tehran on Saturday. Photographer: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images

Group of Seven summits have traditionally served to bring nations together to coordinate a response to crises and conflicts, but the gatherings are becoming increasingly difficult to navigate since Trump ripped up the diplomacy rulebook. A dinner discussion at the summit in Canada on Monday did little to move Trump toward tougher sanctions on Russia, sources say, while leaders made only limited progress on easing trade tensions before Trump made an early exit.

The Trump administration is pressing ahead with another tariff barrage that some experts say is more legally sound than country-by-country duties and may end up having an equally broad impact on imports. The US Commerce Department is set within weeks to announce the outcomes of investigations into sectors deemed vital to national security, including semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and critical minerals. The probes are widely expected to result in levies on a range of foreign-made products.

Since Trump took office, the dollar has lost more than 10% of its value against the euro, pound and Swiss franc and is down against every single major currency in the world. What’s surprising long-time market observers is his team’s seeming indifference to the plunge. Meanwhile, People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng has laid out in the clearest terms yet his vision for the future of a new global currency order after decades of dollar dominance.

Kim Jong Un discussed “items of immediate cooperation and long-term plans” with Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu yesterday, North Korea’s state media said, their third meeting in as many months. Shoigu told Russian media that Pyongyang agreed to send 5,000 military construction workers and 1,000 engineers to Russia’s border Kursk region following the recent ouster of Ukrainian forces with help from North Korean soldiers.

Hooded motorcyclists armed with whips and clubs attacked crowds protesting alleged police violence in Kenya’s two biggest cities, leaving at least 23 people injured. 

A protest in Nairobi yesterday. Photographer: Simon Maina/AFP/Getty Images

Canada and India agreed to appoint new ambassadors in a major step toward moving past a feud that saw them expel each other’s officials over accusations of transnational repression and crime.

Thailand’s ruling party and its top coalition partner are clashing over a key ministerial post, as a looming cabinet shakeup by Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra threatens to shift alliances.

Argentina’s ex-president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, will serve her six-year sentence for corruption under house arrest

Can Europe defend itself? You’re invited to our virtual briefing on the geopolitical climate and industrial context that will shape the next decade, featuring an exclusive presentation by Bloomberg Intelligence plus insights from Bloomberg journalists and industry experts. Join us today at 3:30 p.m. BST. Register here.

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Chart of the Day

Markets are still feeling the fallout from French President Emmanuel Macron’s surprise decision last June to hold elections. The snap vote resulted in a hung parliament and political instability that hobbled efforts to narrow the nation’s budget deficit. In the government bond market, the country has sharply underperformed Germany as investors demand higher compensation to account for risks.

And Finally

An aviation regulator found no major safety concerns with Air India’s fleet of Boeing 787 Dreamliner jets during ongoing inspections following last week’s crash in the western city of Ahmedabad that killed 241 passengers and crew. India’s Directorate General of Civil Aviation said the aircraft were compliant with standards as investigators attempt to determine why flight AI171 struggled to gain altitude after takeoff before plunging into a densely populated neighborhood.

The crash site of Air India flight 171. Photographer: Siddharaj Solanki/Bloomberg

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