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Daily News Brief

June 18, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering U.S. President Donald Trump’s preparation for potential military actions against Iran, as well as...

  • A North Korean contingent in Russia
  • Taiwan’s test of a domestically made submarine
  • Canada and India’s plan to restore ambassadors

There will be no Daily News Brief on Thursday, June 19, in observance of Juneteenth.

 
 

Top of the Agenda

Trump called for Iran’s unconditional surrender in a social media post yesterday, also writing that he knew the location of the country’s top leader. As Israel-Iran air attacks continue, Trump is weighing a U.S. strike on Iran, unnamed U.S. officials told multiple news outlets. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said today that a U.S. military incursion would lead to “irreparable damage.” Trump met with his national security team last night and spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu afterward.

 

On the ground.

 

  • The United States is moving additional fighter jets to the region, unnamed U.S. officials told Reuters. The Pentagon did not immediately comment. 
  • Iran is prepared to strike U.S. bases in the Middle East should the United States join Israel’s military campaign, unnamed U.S. officials told the New York Times.
  • Meanwhile, Israeli strikes on Iran appeared to have hit two nuclear centrifuge production sites, the UN nuclear watchdog said today. 
  • Hundreds of ships traveling through the Persian Gulf have experienced interference with their signaling systems in recent days, shipping analysis firm Windward said. The practice sometimes occurs in war settings as militaries seek to mask the location of ships that could be targets.

 

The chance of an off-ramp.

 

  • Trump is due to meet today with the army chief of Pakistan; Islamabad has expressed openness to mediating in the Middle East. Gulf Arab states and Jordan are also among those trying to de-escalate tensions.
  • On the other hand, Trump yesterday publicly contradicted a recent assessment from his intelligence community that Iran was not actively building nuclear weapons. His statement echoed a central Israeli claim to defend its strikes—that Iran is rushing to make a nuclear bomb.
  • U.S. Representatives Ro Khanna (D-CA) and Thomas Massie (R-KY) introduced a resolution yesterday that would require congressional approval for the U.S. military to offensively attack Iran. Fourteen additional lawmakers immediately supported the measure, all of them Democrats, Massie’s office said.
 
 

“[Trump] may very well be looking at the effectiveness of Israel’s military operations as a way to leverage the American position and get a better deal with the Iranians in negotiations. That’s not something that’s going to sit well with the Israelis. I think they have very clear goals about what they want to do, which is undermine the Iranian nuclear program.” 

—CFR Senior Fellow Steven A. Cook, The President’s Inbox

 

The Islamic Republic’s Power Centers

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei attends Eid al-Fitr prayers in Tehran, Iran on March 31, 2025

West Asia News Agency/Reuters

Who calls the shots in Iran on economic policy, security, and domestic calls for reform? A look at the government’s organization chart indicates how complicated the answer is, CFR editors write in this article.

 
 

Across the Globe

North Koreans in Russia. North Korea will send five thousand construction workers and one thousand combat engineers to Russia’s Kursk region, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu told reporters yesterday during a visit to Pyongyang. Shoigu said the workers would help fix infrastructure damage and that the two countries were aiming to restart direct flights between their capital cities for the first time in more than thirty years. 

 

G7 debate on Ukraine. An unnamed official from Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s office told reporters early yesterday that a joint statement on Ukraine had been discussed at the G7 summit but did not move forward due to U.S. objections. A spokesperson for Carney backpedaled this news later in the day, saying that no joint statement had been planned. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told G7 leaders that “diplomacy is now in a state of crisis” and they should continue urging Trump to force an end to the war, he wrote on Telegram.

 

Trump’s TikTok extension. The White House yesterday announced a third ninety-day extension of a deadline for TikTok’s Chinese owner to divest its U.S. operations or face a national ban. Trump “does not want TikTok to go dark,” the White House press secretary said. The deadline was set to expire tomorrow. Unnamed U.S. officials told the Wall Street Journal that a resolution of TikTok’s impasse had become tangled up in trade tensions with China. 

 

Canada-India thaw. Carney and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to name new ambassadors to their respective countries in a meeting yesterday, Carney’s office said. Bilateral relations had been chilled after Carney’s predecessor alleged that Indian government agents were involved in the 2023 killing of a Sikh activist on Canadian soil, which New Delhi denied. 

 

Oil demand forecast. The International Energy Agency projected yesterday that global oil supply will exceed demand in 2025, despite conflict in the Middle East. In a new report, the agency also maintained a prediction that worldwide oil demand will peak by 2029; producer alliance OPEC projected late last year that demand will keep rising through 2050. 

 

Taiwan’s submarine trial. Taiwan completed the initial sea test for its first domestically built submarine, the Narwhal, yesterday. The Indigenous Defense Submarine program is a main pillar of Taiwan’s efforts to modernize its military amid fears of potential conflict with China. Taiwanese forces plan to eventually have eight locally produced submarines, with two deployed by 2027.

 

Probe of Spain’s blackout. Both the country’s electric grid operator and power plants contributed to the massive blackout that occurred across Spain and Portugal on April 28, according to a Spanish government investigation made public yesterday. The grid operator did not calculate the proper mix of energy to be used, while power plants failed to help keep the correct voltage level in the system. Madrid said it would propose steps to strengthen the grid.

 

Attack in rural Nigeria. President Bola Tinubu is visiting Benue state in north-central Nigeria today after an assault by gunmen that began on Friday night killed dozens of people there. Amnesty International said the death toll numbered around 100, while witnesses estimated 150. No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack, which occurred against the backdrop of local conflicts over access to land and water.

 
 

NATO’s Agenda for The Hague Summit

View of NATO headquarters in Brussels

Yves Herman/Reuters

Next week’s summit comes amid an uncertain geopolitical environment. CFR Senior Fellow Charles A. Kupchan, as well as Kay Bailey Hutchison, Douglas E. Lute, Peter Rough, and Julianne C. Smith, discussed what to expect at this CFR meeting.

 
 

What’s Next

  • Today, Russia starts hosting the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.
  • Tomorrow, the UN Security Council holds a debate on poverty and conflict in New York.
  • Tomorrow, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
 
 

North Korea’s Support for Russia

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un attend an official welcoming ceremony in Pyongyang, North Korea, June 19, 2024

Vladimir Smirnov/Reuters

The alliance between North Korea and Russia in the war against Ukraine globalizes the conflict, CFR Fellow Liana Fix and CFR’s Benjamin Harris write in this Expert Brief.

 
 

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