| The 5-Minute Fix will be off Thursday, June 19, for the Juneteenth holiday. President Donald Trump’s tax bill passed the House of Representatives last month and is now being debated in the Senate, where Republicans are rewriting it significantly. That could be a problem for Trump, because to extend his tax cuts from his first term, nearly every Republican in Congress needs to agree to this legislation, in both the House and the Senate. Republicans are struggling with how to pay for the legislation and whether adding to the debt and cutting Medicaid might be too politically risky for them. Here are the problems facing the legislation Trump has called his “big, beautiful” bill now that it could be in the final stretch to becoming law. It adds to the debt for questionable gain While tax cuts are popular, cutting taxes means the government collects less money for its spending. And this bill is estimated to add trillions to the national debt over the next decade. “I don’t want to vote to raise the debt ceiling $5 trillion,” Sen. Rand Paul (R-Kentucky) said on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” who is a potential “no” vote. (Republicans are trying to pass this entire law without Democratic votes, so a handful of “no” votes in either chamber could sink the bill.) “You know, Congress is awful with money, and so you should give them a more restricted credit line, not an expansive one.” House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) argues that the tax cuts will bring long-term economic growth because businesses will have more money to invest in workers. Trump’s original tax cuts in 2017 did help the economy somewhat, said Diane Swonk, chief economist with the accounting firm KPMG. Most Americans got a modest tax cut that was concentrated among the wealthy and businesses. But Republicans lost the House a year later. Republican strategists say that the first tax cuts came too late to show up in people’s pocketbooks before the midterm elections; hence the rush this year to pass a bill this summer. The bill cuts a number of programs that Republicans have come to rely on To help pay for the tax cuts, Republicans have zeroed in on cutting the federal health insurance program Medicaid, which along with other social programs is a major driver of the debt. The Washington Post’s Jacob Bogage reports that Senate Republicans want to deepen cuts to Medicaid from the House bill. But Medicaid benefits have been growing in recent years among Republicans. Drew Altman, president of the nonpartisan health policy organization KFF, estimates 20 million to 25 million Republicans are on the program, which provides health care to lower-income Americans. A new KFF poll finds that Medicaid is growing in popularity among all Americans, but especially among Republicans. It now has some vocal Republican backers in the Senate, like Josh Hawley of Missouri. This bill also proposes ending Biden-era climate manufacturing investments even though an estimated 80 percent of them have been concentrated in Republican districts. And concern over the debt is an issue that conservatives have traditionally prioritized. All of these major policy changes are being made to make the bill less expensive, but it is still very expensive. “We’re left with a bill that, despite all of these tough choices, is still adding to the debt,” said Marc Goldwein, with the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. It could be a hard to sell to Americans If this bill passes, most Americans won’t see much of a change in their taxes, because this bill will codify Trump’s 2017 tax cuts that otherwise would end soon. But Americans will hear warnings of maxed-out U.S. debt slowing the economy, potentially see their federal health insurance benefits get cut (an estimated 1 in 5 Americans is on Medicaid), and see federal investments in climate manufacturing in their communities slow down or end. Not even a majority of Republican voters seem to like the bill. Just 49 percent of Republicans said they support it, according to a Washington Post-Ipsos poll conducted this month. A sizable 38 percent of Republicans say they have no opinion of it, reflecting a majority of Americans who say they don’t know much about the legislation at all. That’s another potential problem for Republicans. As they debate among themselves what to cut, Democrats have started talking a lot about its potentially unpopular items, hoping to frame it for Americans who are just learning about what might be in it. Their overall narrative: The bill cuts vulnerable people’s health insurance and food stamps to help billionaires. “They managed to make rich people even richer,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) said Wednesday in a news conference. “To the extreme Republicans — and they’re extremists these days — who slipped this silencer sneak attack into their bill: Shame on you,” Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-New York) said in a recent speech about a provision in the bill that could make gun suppressors easier to get. “This will be the most regressive law in modern times by far,” Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Oregon) said Wednesday in a news conference, referring to tax cuts skewed toward the wealthy. “ ... This is class warfare; caviar over kids. Mar-a-Lago over the middle class.” Senate Republicans are expected to spend the next few weeks debating and, eventually, voting on the legislation. It would have to pass the House again if it has significant changes before it goes to Trump’s desk. | 
