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Today’s Agenda

Nobody Knows

Here’s a question with no easy answers: Why is Israel waging a war with Iran? Is it because it wants to ...

A) stop Tehran and reshape the Middle East
B) save the nuclear nonproliferation regime
C) take on a larger axis of aggressors including North Korea, Russia and China

No matter your answer, you’re at least partly correct in Hal Brands’ eyes. “The struggle between Iran and Israel isn’t one war,” he writes. “It is three globally significant wars all at once.”

Ever since the 1979 Islamic revolution, Iran has been doing its best to remove Israel from the picture, using a network of proxies — Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen — to humiliate and intimidate Jerusalem, all while expanding its nuclear ambitions. For a time, that strategy worked, but Hal says whatever momentum Iran had gained was lost the moment Israel “awakened to existential peril” and “remade the regional power balance.”

Then there’s the nukes: Israel doesn’t want Iran tinkering around with uranium and plutonium any more than the US does. “If Israel can wreck that program or force Tehran to cut a deal under duress, it will slow the spread of nuclear weapons — and even force it, modestly, into reverse,” he writes. In turn, Israel will be sending a strong message to Tehran’s nuclear buddies in North Korea, Russia and China: Your weakest link is wrapped around our finger.

“All this underscores why Israel is a valuable ally: It often advances US interests simply by defending its own,” Hal argues. But what happens when those US interests become completely incoherent to even its closest backers? The postwar international order goes belly-up.

James Stavridis sees President Donald Trump’s isolated, erratic and divisive foreign policy as a major danger to the world: “Levying big trade penalties on allies, friends, partners and rivals — then peeling back or putting them on hold due to geopolitical situations, internal political pressure or genuine disarray — is causing America’s rivals to try and wait us out, and our friends looking for other options.”

What’s the US president been up to while European leaders load up on weapons? Aside from randomly erecting massive flag poles at the White House, Trump is doing what he does best: posting on Truth Social. On Tuesday, John Authers says two words — “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” — changed the calculus for markets. Instead of worrying about Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, investors started to question whether the US would begin directly inserting itself in the war.

On Wednesday, Trump stayed evasive when reporters asked if he was considering bombing Iran: “I may do it. I may not do it,” he said. “I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do.” Including, possibly, himself. And that, my friends, is the problem.

Bad Barbies

Mattel has made Barbie do a bunch of questionable things over the years: In 1963, she read a miniature diet book called, “Don’t Eat.” In 1992, she didn’t like math. In 2003, she was pregnant with a plastic fetus. In 2010, she recorded 30 minutes of video on her camera, to the dismay of the FBI. And in 2015, she connected to Wi-Fi and was equipped with more than 8,000 conversations.

Given that progression, Mattel’s latest idea — a Barbie powered by OpenAI — isn’t all too surprising. But it’s nonetheless worrying for a parent like Parmy Olson, who has already witnessed the negative effects of AI toys in her own home. “I’m less concerned about what AI playmates can do to imaginative play and data protection than what they’ll do to kids’ social skills, based on my own experience,” she writes.

Last year, she purchased Grok (not to be confused with Elon Musk’s Grok, the subject of Dave Lee’s latest column), a plush mechanized toy made by a San Francisco startup. “One of Grok’s most noticeable features was how agreeable it was with my then-seven-year-old daughter,” she writes. “When she told Grok she wanted to play with her Barbie, it replied, ‘That sounds like fun!’ So too were her suggestions to travel to Mars, then go to the beach, and then to play princesses.”

Although Mattel has yet to reveal how its AI Barbie will operate, Parmy worries it will be similarly compliant: “Some kids might start to prefer the programmed positivity of their playthings to the rough edges of human playmates. Childhood, after all, represents the years when humans learn how to navigate disagreements.”

Rapid-Fire AI Reading:

  • There’s a case for an AI future that looks less like The Terminator and more like Astro Boy. — Catherine Thorbecke
  • New wind and solar projects will depend on the AI industry’s hunger for electricity. — Liam Denning
  • Latin America’s data center gold rush comes with some big risks. — Juan Pablo Spinetto
  • Nvidia’s “sovereign” AI doesn't look much like sovereignty for European tech. — Lionel Laurent 

This newsletter is only a small sample of our global opinion coverage. For a limited time as an Opinion Today reader, you can get half off a full year’s subscription and unlock unlimited access to all of our columnists and exclusive newsletters. Don’t miss out.

Societal Regression

“Republicans’ Retreat From Gay Marriage Truly Threatens It” is a headline that sounds like it was printed over a decade ago. And yet it was written in 2025 by Nia-Malika Henderson: “As happens with social progress, there has been a concerted and successful backlash to LGBTQ equality, driven by conservatives. Gallup found a clear erosion in support of same-sex marriage among Republicans, with only 41% supporting it today, a 14-point drop in just three years,” she writes.

Are we surprised by that declining red line? No. Much ink has been spilled over the recent “beige-ification of Pride.” But it’s still disconcerting to see conservative legislators lobby the Supreme Court to revisit the 2015 Obergefell v. Hodges decision, which granted people in every state the fundamental right of same-sex marriage.

Whether the Supreme Court will entertain such an effort is up for debate. Perhaps its ruling on Tennessee’s ban on gender-affirming care for trans kids may offer a clue: “Faced with a challenge to Tennessee’s S.B. 1, which bans minors from receiving treatments such as puberty blockers and hormone therapy for gender dysphoria, the justices declared that it wasn’t their call,” writes Stephen L. Carter.

To say Stephen found the decision to be unsatisfactory would be an understatement: “The majority has left us with the conclusion that the ideal solution should be found through serious democratic debate. That lovely, magical dream would require that our public fora are sufficiently serious; and that we ourselves are truly committed to the principles of democracy — and, of course, that we’re good at debate. If only.”

Telltale Chart

When I think about Dubai, I picture pistachio chocolate, influencer pilgrimages, oil barrels and the Emirates logo. I do not picture a Nissan Leaf or a Tesla Model 3, but perhaps I should be: David Fickling says EVs can be seen whizzing around on every road. “The popularity of battery propulsion in a region built on the thirst of internal combustion engines is a warning that a fundamentally better technology is now displacing gasoline for good,” he writes. “With oil prices gyrating after last week’s Israeli attack on Iran, who wants the cost of filling up their gas tank to become collateral damage in the Middle East’s wars?”

Further Reading

Gambling away export controls can’t become a habit for the US. — Bloomberg Editorial Board

Thailand dragged its feet on long-brewing economic problems. It’s not ready for Trump’s tariffs. — Daniel Moss

Dismissing Black men’s shift toward Trump as a mere blip would be a mistake by the Democrats. — David M. Drucker

What was Congress thinking? The NCAA does not deserve an antitrust exemption. — Adam Minter

Chinese ownership of ports is a concern, but Australia’s Darwin may not be the one to panic over. — Karishma Vaswani

Another day, another potential spanner in the works of European banking consolidation. — Paul J. Davies

ICYMI

Karen Read was found not guilty of murder.

Young conservative women aren’t Trump-obsessed.

OpenAI claims Meta is trying to poach its staffers.

Kickers

The Cheese Lady is carving up Aspen.

A black bear wore a plastic lid for two years.

Sit and stand to know how long you’ll live.

Notes: Please send cheddar cheese carvings and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net.

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