The world is waiting on Trump’s decision to bomb Iran

The president has privately approved a plan to bomb the underground Iranian nuclear facility at Fordow but has not yet given the word to go, according to the WSJ. Only the U.S. has a bunker-busting bomb with the power to reach the site, Axios says. The GBU-57 E/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator weighs 30,000 pounds and can penetrate 197 feet below ground. The FT has a fascinating deep dive on how Israel managed to disable Iran’s military and control its airspace. Iran bombed an Israeli hospital in the south of the country today. BBC live coverage of the conflict here.

Fed keeps rates steady

As expected, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates the same following a meeting on Wednesday but projected the possibility of up to two rate cuts in 2025. The Fed’s new economic forecasts, however, raised concerns among analysts of the risk of stagflation.

Trump replies: “Powell is the WORST”

After the Fed's decision to hold rates steady, the president again insulted Jerome Powell, the chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, in a social media post published at 5 a.m. EST. “Too Late—Powell is the WORST. A real dummy, who’s costing America $Billions!,” the post said.

Swiss interest rate is now zero

Not everyone has inflation. The Swiss National Bank cut its interest rates by 0.25% to set the new rate at zero. The central bank is trying to weaken the Swiss franc, which has soared versus the euro, while the economy shows signs of disinflation.

CEO sentiment worst in five years

A survey by the Business Roundtable found business leaders haven’t been this negative about the economy since 2020.

What it’s like staging a super-wedding for a billionaire

The WSJ isn’t saying that this is what Jeff Bezos is doing in Venice. But this is what’s on offer from wedding planners whose clients are the super-rich. It can take a team of 500 people to plan: “We’ve got 80,000 rose stems here. Can you imagine how many people it takes to condition those flowers?” said one planner catering for a couple in Monaco.

JPMorgan unveils deposit token

JPMorgan Chase plans to offer a type of cryptocurrency known as a deposit token, in partnership with Coinbase, for institutional clients that will serve as a digital representation of a bank deposit. Naveen Mallela, global co-head of JPMorgan Chase’s blockchain division, told Fortune that the token (named “JPMD”) can be used to settle transfers 24/7 and make international B2B payments. 

Is an American-made Trump smartphone possible?

The tech industry is skeptical that the Trump Organization’s recently announced smartphone will actually be “proudly designed and built in the United States” as the organization claims. The CEO of the only company producing U.S.-made smartphone, says “unless the Trump family secretly built out a secure, onshore or nearshore fab operation over years of work without anyone noticing, it’s simply not possible to deliver what they’re promising.”

State Department demands students visa applicants make their social media accounts public

“Consular officers will be on the lookout for indications of hostility toward the United States. Failure by applicants to leave their social-media accounts open for public view will be seen by the State Department as an effort to evade or hide certain activity,” the WSJ reports.

• South Korea’s Kospi was up 0.19% this morning. India’s Nifty 50 was flat. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.3% in early trading. The Stoxx Europe 600 was down 0.5% in early trading.  China’s SSE Composite was down 0.82%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 2%. The S&P 500 closed flat yesterday. The U.S. market is closed for the Juneteenth holiday today.

• UBS on Trump v Iran: “Trump’s social media posts have suggested increased hostility toward Iran, raising the possibility of the US striking (presumably) Iranian nuclear facilities. Markets are still inclined to view this as a local conflict, with limited global economic consequences,” per Paul Donovan.
• Pantheon Macroeconomics on consumer spending: “The 0.9% drop in retail sales in May was the biggest fall since early 2023 and highlights how several factors which recently have supported consumers’ spending now are fading fast. We think further weakness in spending is likely in the coming months as tariff costs are passed on to consumers, depressing real incomes and denting demand for goods. Mounting signs of weakness in the economy’s main engine of growth in recent years would bolster the case for the Fed to resume easing soon,” per Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen.
• Oxford Economics on the labour market: “Despite the slight decline in initial jobless claims in the week ending June 14, both initial and continuing unemployment claims are trending higher, consistent with a gradual softening in labor market conditions. Even so, with inflation risks looming, we do not think the economy is weakening by enough to force the Federal Reserve into rate cuts in the coming months,” per Michael Pearce.
• Pantheon Macroeconomics on the labor market: “Indicators such as WARN layoff notices and the Challenger job cuts series suggest layoffs are starting to rise from a low base, while weak hiring means newly laid-off workers will find it increasingly difficult to get a new job quickly. This pressure on the labor market will grow as the tariff shock works its way through the economy,” per Oliver Allen.