Balance of Power
Donald Trump faces a potentially defining moment in his second term as US President as he weighs whether to order an attack on Iran.
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Five months into his second term, Donald Trump faces a potentially defining moment as he weighs whether to order a US attack on Iran over its nuclear program.

Top officials in Washington are preparing for a possible strike in coming days, while Trump told reporters he’ll make his “final decision one second before it’s due.”

The uncertainty adds to surging tensions across the Middle East almost a week since Israel began its assault on Iran. Israeli missiles hit a nuclear site in the Islamic Republic, which reported no radiation risk, and Iran struck the largest hospital in southern Israel today.

Oil-rich Gulf Nations were blindsided by Israel’s attack. Only a few weeks ago, they were hosting Trump, pledging billions in investments and flattering him with lavish receptions. They believed that gave them an inside track into the US president’s camp. In reality, they are mere bystanders trying to divine his next move — just like the rest of the world.

Meanwhile, markets are volatile as traders fret about potential disruptions to oil supplies.

Beijing and Moscow have condemned Israel’s attack, though neither has shown much interest in aiding Iran. Russia is fearful the regime in Tehran may follow its ousted Syrian ally Bashar Al-Assad.

WATCH: Paul Wallace, managing editor for Middle East government, discusses the possibility of a US strike on Iran on Bloomberg TV.

Trump’s readiness to countenance joining Israel in destroying Iran’s nuclear program is putting him at odds with his “America First” base of supporters who elected him on a commitment to avoid foreign military entanglements.

While Tehran is defying his demand for “unconditional surrender,” Trump may be trying to create a window for last-minute diplomacy. Foreign ministers from the UK, France, and Germany plan nuclear talks with their Iranian counterpart in Geneva tomorrow.

The crisis is evolving fast — and prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough appear extremely low at best. Trump’s final-second decision may shape the Middle East and his presidency for years to come. Abeer Abu Omar

A plume of heavy smoke and fire rises from an Iranian oil refinery after it was hit in an Israeli strike on Sunday. Photographer: Ahmad Hatefi/UPI/Shutterstock

On the latest episode of Trumponomics, we discuss how Israel’s surprise attack on Iran isn’t yet having the expected impact on energy markets. Listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Global Must Reads

Trump plans a third extension of the deadline for ByteDance to divest the American operations of TikTok, allowing the Chinese company to keep the popular social-media app running in the US while negotiations proceed. The decision provides another lifeline for TikTok, which US lawmakers have long feared could be used to spy on American citizens and which has emerged as a source of friction between Washington and Beijing.

Thailand’s government faces collapse after a leaked phone call unleashed renewed political turmoil, with Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra facing pressure to resign and street protests as she grapples with the exit of the second-biggest party in her coalition. Bhumjaithai quit the government, citing a loss of trust after the premier appeared to criticize the Thai army’s role in a border dispute during the call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen.

Paetongtarn Shinawatra at a news conference in Bangkok today. Photographer: Valeria Mongelli/Bloomberg

Bolivian President Luis Arce plans to use millions of dollars of overseas loans to tackle crippling fuel shortages and soaring consumer prices before he leaves office in November, he told us in an interview. The South American leader said he’s hopeful the measures will help stabilize an economy that’s grappling with its most serious crisis in decades, ahead of elections in August in which he is backing his party’s candidate, Eduardo del Castillo.

Former Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner started her first full day of house arrest for a corruption conviction wondering what exactly she is authorized to do at her Buenos Aires home for the next six years. “Can I go out to my balcony or not? It sounds like a joke, but no,” she said in a post on X, attaching a letter from her lawyers to the court asking whether she can speak to her supporters gathered outside.

Fernández on her balcony in Buenos Aires last week. Photographer: Luis Robayo/AFP/Getty Images

Spain’s most-detailed account yet of the missteps leading to April’s nationwide blackout failed to fully explain why the power grid was so unstable in the first place. The government blamed the grid operator for failing to ensure enough backup generation and plant operators for not fulfilling commitments; it didn't explain what caused voltage surges that the system was unable to cope with, and what could be done, if anything, to prevent that in the future.

One of Colombia’s highest courts blocked President Gustavo Petro’s bid to hold a referendum on strengthening labor rights, denying him a potential boost at a time when the government’s popularity is waning.

Rwanda and Democratic Republic of Congo will sign a peace agreement next week, according to the US State Department, in a bid to end a decades-long conflict between the African neighbors.

New Zealand has paused development funding to the Cook Islands after the tiny South Pacific nation signed agreements with China without the level of consultation expected by the government in Wellington.

The US State Department has ordered a review of student-visa applicants’ social-media presence and told them to make their profiles public, tightening measures to restrict foreign citizens’ entry to American campuses over national-security concerns.

President Vladimir Putin revealed that his grandchild speaks fluent Chinese because her nanny is a Beijinger and said that Russians in general are showing greater interest in learning the language, highlighting deepening ties between the two nations.

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Chart of the Day

Europe’s renewables boom is upending long-standing market trends and increasingly sending prices far below zero. Skillful traders who can profit from that flux have flocked to short-term contracts, with intraday and day-ahead volumes soaring to a record last year. It’s fueling a battle for talent that’s driving up salaries, with companies competing to hire traders, developers, and analysts.

And Finally

At a flashy event in Rome last month to mark the European launch of BYD’s latest electric hatchback, the message to its rivals was clear: the Chinese carmaker has arrived with an EV for the masses. The Dolphin Surf aims to be a Fiat 500 or VW Beetle for the electric age — fun, accessible and built to put millions of drivers behind the wheel, only this time with a battery.

The launch of the Dolphin Surf at Rome’s Olympic Stadium last month. Photographer: Valentina Stefanelli/LaPresse/Shutterstock

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