Good morning. Donald Trump predicts a “big” interest rate cut this week. Trade talks between the US and China continue in Madrid amid ongoing tensions over TikTok and Nvidia. And a young British actor makes history at the Emmys. Listen to the day’s top stories.

— Tiago Ramos Alfaro

The price of money: Trump predicted a “big cut” in interest rates from the Federal Reserve this week. While divisions among Fed officials may result in multiple dissents in voting intentions, the central bank is widely expected to lower borrowing costs on Wednesday as it grapples with a slowing labor market. And the real question for traders is how many more cuts are coming in the next few months.

In Madrid, American and Chinese officials continued talks for a second day, focusing on trade and the economy. China has misunderstood the US position on TikTok, a US official said, adding that Trump is willing to let a ban take effect. The discussions are also expected to pave the way for a potential Trump–Xi Jinping summit in October. Meanwhile, the US president is set to begin his second state visit to the UK on Tuesday. 

China found Nvidia violated anti-monopoly laws related to a 2020 deal, after a preliminary investigation. The surprise one-sentence announcement didn’t provide further details but it’ll increase pressure on Washington during the talks. US stock futures fell following the news.

Deterrence. Trump said he’s prepared to move ahead with “major” sanctions on Russian oil if NATO countries do the same. Many European nations have cut back or stopped buying Russian oil, but several NATO allies —including Hungary— have blocked the EU’s tougher proposals targeting Russia’s energy industry. In recent days, Ukraine has launched attacks on key Russian oil hubs.

Zohran Mamdani Photographer: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg

Back in the US, New York Governor Kathy Hochul endorsed 33-year-old Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani for mayor of New York City. “Mamdani and I will both be fearless in confronting the president’s extreme agenda,” she wrote in an New York Times opinion piece on Sunday. The endorsement is a blow to incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, who’s considering the future of his reelection campaign.

Bloomberg Green New York: Join us Sept. 25 for a solutions-focused look into a new era of climate action during Climate Week NYC. Following the 80th United Nations General Assembly, we’ll hear how top leaders in business, finance and government are approaching climate issues during times of geopolitical uncertainty. Learn more here

Deep Dive: New Push

Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg

Trump made a final attempt on Sunday to sway a US appeals court to let him oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, before the central bank’s vote on interest rates this week.

• An Atlanta property at the center of the lawsuit was described by Cook as a “vacation home” in a loan document, potentially contradicting claims of mortgage fraud.
• Earlier this month, the president was temporarily blocked from removing Cook, allowing her to stay in the job while she challenges efforts to oust her.
• Cook has vowed to fight Trump’s actions and says she won’t resign. If Trump manages to fire Cook, her vacancy could give him a chance to nominate a new member to the Fed board as he repeatedly pressures officials to lower rates.
• The current legal battle will help to determine the extent of White House control over the Fed. Here’s our explainer on what the next steps may be. 

The Big Take

Illustration by Gabriel Masella

Almost two decades after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, wealthy Americans are finally learning to love structured products again, amid a $200 billion boom in the market.

Opinion

Conditions are in place for the Fed to cut rates this week, John Authers writes. Unemployment is rising while inflation remains relatively controlled — making a cut seem like the sensible choice. But a lot else is still murky.

Before You Go

Owen Cooper accepts the Outstanding Supporting Actor award Photographer: Kevin Winter/Getty Images North America

Emmys: HBO Max’s new medical show The Pitt took home the award for best drama, while The Studio on Apple TV+ won best comedy. Adolescence, the story of a 13-year-old accused of murder, won six Emmys, including best limited series and best supporting actor for Owen Cooper, who played the teen.