Szabolcs Panyi
Central Europe investigative editor

 

Welcome back to Goulash—your Central Europe-flavored mix of investigations, scoops, and the bits in between. This week’s main course is literally explosive: we’ve reconstructed the plot behind the parcel bombs carried on DHL flights, plus arson and other sabotage across Europe—identifying the perpetrators, the ringleader, and the playbook. Spoiler alert: Russia’s GRU is in the kitchen. It’s a six-month joint effort with our partners across the region. And just before we served, someone tried to spoil the pot—check the scoops section for how that went. Nevertheless, we have both a thrilling text as well as an interactive, visualized version for you.

 

But I won’t keep you hungry for long—we have a full and varied course today, ranging from a deep dive into the porn industry (not that deep) to river pollution in Ukraine and Hungary. Let’s dig in!

 

 

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FRESH FROM VSQUARE

 

Remember the mysterious arson attacks and explosive parcels sent via DHL and DPD flights last spring and summer? After six months of digging, my colleagues and our partners connected the dots and cracked the plot—a series of sabotage attacks carried out by Russia’s military intelligence, the GRU. This was one of the finest investigations we’ve ever been part of thanks to VSquare’s partners: Latvia’s re:Baltica, Lithuania’s LRT, Estonia’s Delfi, Poland’s Frontstory, and The Insider. At the last minute, and to our shock, Lithuanian prosecutors tried to blow up our story (more on that in the scoops section). That’s why we moved publication up by a day—and why it was on VSquare that our The Insider colleagues Michael Weiss and Kato Kopaleishvili published their text-based version of the story, a real thriller you can read here.

 

 

Meanwhile, my Polish and Ukrainian colleagues—Daniel Flis, Anna Gielewska, Anastasiia Morozova, and Alicja Pawłowska—prepared a visual, illustrated version of the investigation, mapping the explosive packages’ route across all three Baltic states, Poland, Germany, and the UK, slipping over NATO borders again and again. They also identified the perpetrators, including the ringleader (a Russian smuggler of radioactive materials) and the Russians and Ukrainian refugees (yes, really) whom the GRU remotely recruited to carry out state terror for Moscow’s war. For our Hungarian subscribers, note the family name: one of the Ukrainian perpetrators is identified as Vasily Kovacs. Check out VSquare’s visual story here, preferably with Chrome or Firefox (Polish version on Frontstory here).

 

 

Crystal clear at its source in Ukraine, the Tisza river is full of plastic waste by the time it reaches Hungary. Átlátszó’s Orsolya Fülöp shows how weak waste management in Western Ukraine, compounded by Russia’s war, worsens the problem. Four hundred kilometers downstream in Hungary, volunteers collected over 400 bags of trash daily from the Tisza river during the summer. With hundreds of thousands displaced to the Transcarpathian region and infrastructure lacking, waste—and pollution—keep piling up and flowing downstream. Read the investigation here (and you can also watch the embedded 47-minutes video).

 

 

Investigace’s Paul May tells the story of Frenchman Stéphane Pacaud and shows how Prague became Europe’s unofficial porn capital, with more films shot and more porn stars per capita than anywhere else. For nearly 20 years, Pacaud and his company WebGroup Czech Republic have ruled the business, running XVideos while snapping up studios, platforms, and even real estate. The investigation also looks at how new laws could finally shake his grip on the industry and sheds light on why Budapest lost ground to Prague when it comes to shooting porn. And don’t worry—the article itself is totally safe for work, read it here.

 

 

In a new analysis, Attila Juhász and Political Capital’s Bulcsú Hunyadi show how Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán’s “illiberal model” is running into serious trouble—hit by economic crisis, voter anger, and weak governance. With the 2026 election coming up, Orbán is facing his toughest challenge in 20 years. Once seen as a playbook for other strongmen, his model is losing its shine abroad. Still, the world will be watching closely to see if he can hang on. The study points out that Orbán poured huge public resources into selling his system, turning himself into the poster boy of illiberalism well beyond Hungary’s size. Check it out here.

 

 

Another great piece of news! Direkt36, my other affiliation and VSquare's Hungarian partner center, has been named one of the recipients of the Free Media Awards—a recognition granted by the Norwegian Fritt Ord Foundation and the German ZEIT Stiftung Bucerius to journalists who do outstanding work under difficult circumstances. In the press release, the success of Direkt36's documentary on the Orbán family’s enrichment, The Dynasty, was specifically highlighted. 

 

SPICY SCOOPS

 

There is always a lot of information that we hear and find interesting and newsworthy but don’t publish as part of our investigative reporting—and share instead in this newsletter.

 

HOW LITHUANIAN PROSECUTORS UNDERMINED OUR GRU INVESTIGATION

 

In journalism, we’re sadly used to the occasional unethical move—like quoting others’ work without credit, or even passing off entire stories as someone else’s scoop. But what happened to my colleagues and our small Central European–Baltic team investigating the GRU plot behind last year’s arson attacks and parcel bombs is almost unprecedented: Lithuanian prosecutors essentially obstructed then scooped our story. For months, the Lithuanian Prosecutor General’s Office ignored or delayed our journalists’ inquiries about GRU-linked terror plots in the Baltics and Poland. Then, according to our Lithuanian colleague and LRT public broadcast journalist Indrė Makaraitytė’s post on Wednesday, this is what happened:


“Lithuanian journalists know all too well that the spokesperson of the Prosecutor General’s Office, Elena Martinonienė, is more often seen posting on social media than doing her actual job—such as simply confirming whether inquiries were received. The same pattern played out with this international investigation: either silence, or long-delayed replies stating that no information would be provided. Then the situation suddenly changed. After we sent our final set of detailed questions—about suspects arrested in Estonia—at 16:57 an unexpectedly detailed comment, signed by Martinonienė, arrived in my inbox, confirming part of what our international team of journalists had uncovered. At that exact moment, the very same text was released as an official press statement from the Prosecutor General’s Office—disclosing information that journalists had been painstakingly piecing together for half a year.


The international investigation was set to be published tomorrow. But, apparently fearing its impact, the Lithuanian Prosecutor General’s Office rushed out exactly the information that journalists had requested specifically for their report. If this information—about the Russian GRU’s organizers and perpetrators of terrorist attacks, the entire network of those already detained and those under international search—could be made public today, why were journalists’ questions ignored for months? Our foreign colleagues are stunned—they struggle to recall another case of law enforcement in a democratic country committing such a brazen act.”


So that’s why we were forced to publish a classic article version of the story on VSquare immediately on Wednesday—Michael Weiss and Kato Kopaleishvili’s article, originally planned for The Insider—and as originally planned, on Thursday, the visualized, technically more complex version. (Here you can also find Indrė’s version on LRT in English.)


Meanwhile, Lithuanian journalists are furious and planning to protest the prosecutor’s office and its spokesperson—whose maneuvers are clearly approved by the chief prosecutor—already notorious for misleading and obstructing journalists to protect their institution’s image. But Lithuania is still a place where journalism matters. When I asked Indrė whether the government would act and pressure the prosecution to cooperate more with the press, she reminded me that VSquare’s other local partner, Šarūnas Černiauskas and his outlet Siena, started the investigation that snowballed into a corruption scandal and forced Lithuanian prime minister Gintautas Paluckas to resign this August. So, for now, there’s no government to intervene. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

 

FROM WARSAW TO NOWHERE: TRZASKOWSKI SNUBBED IN HUNGARY

 

Moving on to more regular scoops… Hungary’s opposition leader Péter Magyar has long looked to Poland for inspiration on how to defeat a populist who dismantled the rule of law and bring a country back from the EU’s margins to its center. He gave long interviews to Polish outlets, spoke warmly about Polish-Hungarian friendship, and even promised that the future prime minister of his TISZA Party—whether himself or someone else—would make their first symbolic visit to Warsaw. But after government-backed Rafał Trzaskowski lost the Polish presidential election in June, the ground shifted. Sources familiar with Magyar’s plans say he had even seriously considered a summer trip to Poland, including a meeting with Lech Wałęsa in Gdańsk, but the idea fizzled as the political climate soured after Trzaskowski’s defeat.

 

This week, when the liberal mayor of Warsaw came to Hungary for the Budapest Summit, Trzaskowski pushed hard for a meeting with Magyar—currently leading the polls against Orbán—going so far as to cancel some pre-conference events to make time, according to sources familiar with his visit. But Magyar, busy campaigning in rural Hungary, didn’t adjust his schedule. TISZA Party officials told me it was never on the leader’s agenda to reschedule. Multiple Hungarian sources familiar with the Warsaw mayor’s trip summed it up bluntly: “In Magyar’s eyes, Trzaskowski is just a loser.” That’s a sentiment shared by many in Poland, too, where government supporters increasingly wonder whether Trzaskowski’s primary challenger, the more energetic and serious-looking foreign minister Radek Sikorski, should have been the presidential candidate instead.

 

 

CHANCES OF NEW POLISH "ASYLUM SEEKERS" GROW AFTER GOVERNMENT RESHUFFLE 

 

After his party’s defeat in the Polish presidential election, Prime Minister Donald Tusk was forced to consolidate support through a government reshuffle. Justice Minister Adam Bodnar was replaced by long-time Kraków district judge Waldemar Żurek, who is taking a tougher line against the former Law and Justice (PiS) government’s so-called “neojudges” or “fake judges.” Criminal cases against former PiS officials are also expected to move forward more swiftly. This raises the likelihood of suspects attempting to flee prosecution—following the path of former deputy justice minister Marcin Romanowski, charged with 11 counts of financial crimes, who was granted asylum in Hungary. According to a Polish government-connected source, confirming earlier Polish media reports, Dariusz Matecki—prosecuted in the same cases as Romanowski—is already rumored of plotting a similar escape (albeit not necessarily to Hungary).

 

Meanwhile, a PiS-Hungary insider explained to me the real logic behind Romanowski’s—and possibly other figures’—flight. Prosecutors in these corruption cases need more evidence and are desperate for incriminating testimony. PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński and former justice minister Zbigniew Ziobro (Romanowski’s former boss) allegedly viewed the relatively unimportant Romanowski as a liability due to his personality. They feared he might crack under pressure, take a plea deal, and implicate higher-level figures. According to the source, this is why Kaczyński asked Viktor Orbán to give Romanowski shelter. However, PiS candidate Karol Nawrocki’s presidential victory and recent polls showing a combined PiS–far-right Konfederacja majority make it less likely that anyone from the previous government would “rat” on others in their political camp.

 

 

EUROPE’S TALLEST SKYSCRAPER PLAN MAY NOT BE DEAD AFTER ALL 

 

Back in December 2023, this newsletter broke the story that sparked a long political debate in Hungary: secret government talks about selling a huge plot of land in Budapest to build a luxury neighborhood centered around Europe’s planned tallest skyscraper. Negotiations with Emirati businessman Mohamed Alabbar were already well underway when we revealed them—forcing Viktor Orbán’s government to first defend the project, and then, after opposition from Budapest Mayor Gergely Karácsony and mounting legal challenges, to appear to drop the plan. Instead, Budapest took ownership of the land and announced plans to launch an international tender for a green, residential development.

 

Yet just over a week ago, Emirati foreign trade minister Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi visited Hungary, meeting both government officials and the mayor. According to a source familiar with the talks, Zeyoudi lobbied hard on behalf of Alabbar’s Eagle Hills corporation and its luxury neighborhood vision—suggesting the project may not be as dead as it seemed. Soon after, Viktor Orbán flew to Abu Dhabi with little explanation. Both government- and municipality-linked sources told me it looks increasingly likely that Orbán hasn’t given up on the Emirati skyscraper project at all—he’s merely keeping it low profile until the April 2026 elections, after which he would surely try to revive it if he remains in power.

 

Support independent investigative journalism! VSquare is a fully non-profit investigative outlet — just like our core partners: Átlátszó and Direkt36 in Hungary, Frontstory in Poland, Investigace in the Czech Republic, and the Investigative Center of Ján Kuciak in Slovakia. As pressure on journalists in the region rises once again, please consider supporting our local partners (all links go directly to their donation pages) — and VSquare as well.

 

Every contribution counts. Supporting us is simple, you can donate here.

MORE FROM OUR PARTNERS

 

If you like our scoops and stories, here are some more articles from our partners!

 

THE STATE PAID TWICE AS MUCH FOR A FLIGHT INSPECTION AIRCRAFT WITH LEATHER SEATS. ONCE AGAIN, IT BOUGHT FROM STRNAD. The Investigative Center of Ján Kuciak’s investigation reveals how Slovakia’s Air Navigation Services bought an airplane from Czech arms magnate Jaroslav Strnad’s company for €13.5 million—more than double of its recent market listing of about €4.36 million. (Text in Slovak.)


BATTLE FOR THE BLOODY BIRCH: HOW RUSSIAN WOOD CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO EUROPE. Investigace shows how, despite EU sanctions banning Russian wood imports, loopholes allow birch plywood to keep flowing into Europe through intermediaries in countries like Kazakhstan and Georgia, eventually reaching even Czech households. (Text in Czech.)


INSIDE THE FALL OF FERENC GYURCSÁNY, VIKTOR ORBÁN’S ARCHRIVAL. An investigation by Direkt36 reveals that former Hungarian prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsány’s departure from politics was driven not only by internal party opposition but also by a long-standing romantic affair that triggered a personal crisis. (Text in Hungarian and English.)


DOCUMENT REVEALS MÉSZÁROS COMPANY AS GENERAL CONTRACTOR OF ORBÁN FAMILY ESTATE. Átlátszó uncovered that Orbán’s childhood friend Mészáros Lőrinc’s family firm is the main contractor building the Orbán family’s lavish Hatvanpuszta estate, with a subcontractor tied to a past corruption case. (Text in Hungarian and English.)

 

This was VSquare’s 49th Goulash newsletter.
I hope you gobbled it up. Come back soon for another serving. 

 

Still hungry? Check the previous newsletter issues here!


SZABOLCS PANYI & THE VSQUARE TEAM

 

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