Principals

1. Gaza deal announced
2. Trump’s prosecutions
3. Long shutdown march
4. Pressure on banks
5. Trump backed on Venezuela
6. Agencies’ low approval
7. Portland troops hearing

PDB: Trump to receive health checkup on Friday 

Trump meets with Finnish leader … Johnson to take viewer calls on C-SPAN … WSJ: Thune warns against mass layoffs

Trump announces first phase of Gaza deal

President Donald Trump is on track for a significant foreign policy victory, after Israel agreed to pause fighting and partially withdraw from Gaza in exchange for the release of all Israeli hostages. In a major breakthrough after two years of devastating war, the two sides agreed to what Trump described as the first phase of his broader ceasefire plan. The White House expects Hamas to free the 20 hostages still believed to be alive by Monday and later return the remains of 28 others, in exchange for Israel pulling troops back to an agreed-upon line and the return of Palestinian prisoners. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed the development as a “national and moral victory” and lauded his “great friend and ally” Trump; the Israeli cabinet is set to discuss the plan Thursday. A host of crucial details remain unresolved, however, including the future governance of Gaza and whether Hamas will disarm. Trump said Wednesday night he is “likely going to Israel in the coming days” to address the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, Axios reported.

Trump allies skeptical about convicting foes

While Trump expects his Justice Department to prosecute and convict his political adversaries, some Republican allies are keeping expectations in check, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott, Burgess Everett, and Eleanor Mueller report. Take former FBI director James Comey, who pleaded not guilty yesterday to charges of lying to Congress. “It’d be very difficult,” Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, said of obtaining a conviction in the reliably blue part of Virginia. New York Attorney Gen. Letitia James, Fed governor Lisa Cook, and Sen. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., all face DOJ investigations relating to alleged mortgage fraud, which can be difficult to prosecute. As the list of Trump foes facing legal blowback grows, it’s personal for Trump and his allies, even as they strongly believe crimes were committed. “If they weren’t trying to go after Trump, would he be digging up sh*t on them? Probably not,” a person close to the White House said.

Why the shutdown may last into next week

It’s Day 9 of the shutdown, and the funding lapse is looking more likely to extend into next week as the Senate considers heading home for the weekend. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., questioned whether a weekend session makes any sense at all, saying: “I don’t know if that does any good.” Senators are trying to keep things civil. “We continue to talk with our Democratic colleagues. We’re not mad at one another,” Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., told Semafor. At the same time, the shutdown is making the dysfunctional Capitol more tense. On Wednesday, Democratic Arizona Sens. Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego sparred with House Speaker Mike Johnson over the lower chamber’s prolonged recess, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., battled over the Republican’s proposal to extend health care subsidies for a year.

— Burgess Everett

Senior Dem nudges banks to help workers

House Financial Services Chair Maxine Waters is trying to help out federal employees who have to go without paychecks during the shutdown, Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller reports. Waters wrote to bank trade associations, like the American Bankers Association and Bank Policy Institute, asking them to work with members to provide accommodations for customers who may not be able to pay off loans in time due to missed checks. She sent a similar letter to banking regulators earlier this week. Democrats are also pushing House Speaker Mike Johnson to take up legislation that would ensure military personnel receive their next paycheck, set for Oct. 15, even if the government is not funded before then. Johnson rebuffed those requests, though Trump told reporters passing a standalone bill for military pay “probably will happen.”

Republicans back Trump drug war

Trump is getting backup from Senate Republicans for his military mobilization off the coast of Venezuela. The GOP voted down a Democratic effort on Wednesday evening to restrict the administration’s campaign against alleged drug boats in the Caribbean. However, two Republicans — Sens. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, and Rand Paul, R-Ky. — voted in favor of the war powers resolution, and Sen. Todd Young, R-Ind., said in a statement that he is “highly concerned about the legality of recent strikes in the Caribbean” despite his ‘no’ vote. Secretary of State Marco Rubio briefed Senate Republicans on the administration’s legal basis for the strikes before the vote. “If you want to understand his position on the authority to hit the boats? I’d call him. He’s clearly thought it through,” Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., said. Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman was the sole Democrat to vote against the measure.

— Morgan Chalfant and Burgess Everett

Americans sour on CDC, FEMA

The US public’s approval of federal bodies like the CDC, CIA, and FEMA has declined markedly over the last year, new Gallup polling shows. The figures are driven in part by Democrats’ disapproval of the Trump administration but also point to an overall level of dissatisfaction with several departments. The FDA, EPA, and IRS have also seen sharp drops in their approval ratings. The rating for DHS has actually improved, driven by Republican satisfaction with the agency, likely due to its role in executing Trump’s deportation agenda. Meanwhile, FEMA — which sits under DHS — has seen its positive ratings decline among both Democrats and Republicans as its disaster response efforts have attracted criticism.

Portland deployment faces legal test

Trump’s troop deployments to Democrat-run cities face a critical legal test today, as an appeals court in Oregon weighs whether to uphold an order blocking the president from sending the National Guard to Portland. The ruling from a Trump appointee ground to a halt his plans to send 200 Oregon National Guard members to protect an ICE facility in Portland; a later ruling blocked him from sending in troops from other states. Trump is replicating the strategy in other locations: Hundreds of National Guard members arrived outside Chicago on Wednesday to help with the immigration crackdown there, as the president called for jailing the Illinois governor and Chicago mayor for what he said was a failure to protect ICE officers. Most Americans might not be on Trump’s side when it comes to the deployments, however, according to new Reuters/Ipsos polling.

Blindspot: Texts and immigration

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., said he still supports Virginia Democratic state attorney general nominee Jay Jones, even as he criticized recently unearthed violent texts Jones sent about a former state House speaker.

What the Right isn’t reading: Florida officers are still enforcing a state immigration law that a federal judge suspended earlier this year. 

Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) will join the stage at the Fall Edition of Semafor’s World Economy Summit. Hosted in the Gallup Great Hall and spanning eight sessions over two days, the summit will feature on-the-record interviews on the state of global growth and finance, AI advancements, powering global energy needs, and the forces reshaping the world economy.

Each session brings together the leaders and forces most directly shaping the global economy, with programming powered by Semafor’s world-class editorial and executive leadership.

Oct. 15 & 16, 2025 | Washington, DC | Request Invitation

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer says Democrats have the momentum as the shutdown drags on and polls suggest the US public blames Republicans: “Every day gets better for us.”

Playbook: “I feel good,” President Trump said of the Gaza peace plan being agreed. “It’s a great deal for the world. It’s a beautiful deal.”

WaPo: The DNC is waiting until after key November races in Virginia and New Jersey to release a postmortem of its 2024 presidential campaign, hoping to avoid fresh media coverage of the party’s failure to connect with voters.

Axios: Chi Ossé, a New York City Council member and ally of New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, is considering a run against House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

White House

• President Trump will receive a “routine yearly check up” at Walter Reed hospital on Friday, while he’s there to give remarks to troops, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said. He had an annual physical earlier this year.
• At a rou