By Jorge Liboreiro

In politics, there are high-risk bets that, against all odds, play out spectacularly well and go on to become legendary lore. Then, there are bets that fall flat and are immediately forgotten. And then, there are bets that turn ugly, fall apart and snowball into sheer catastrophe.

French President Emmanuel Macron’s out-of-the-blue, logic-defining choice to call snap elections in June 2024 was designed to belong to the first category, that of ingenious thinking and strategic prowess, but ended up in the third maligned rank.

Ever since that fateful day, France has been ensnared in a perpetual, thundering and, at times, grotesque state of chaos. The National Assembly has been sharply fractured into three main factions that refuse to work with each other in any form or way. The country has gone through not one, not two, not three, but four prime ministers in barely one year, the last of whom, Sébastien Lecornu, shocked the Fifth Republic earlier this week when he announced his resignation mere hours after having unveiled his new cabinet.

Macron then asked the despondent-looking Lecornu to give it another try. He did. And then he gave up and said Macron should appoint a replacement. “I feel a path is still possible,” Lecornu said in a TV interview, seemingly diffusing the speculation that parliamentary elections will be called.

Notably, Lecornu said “the elephant in the room” was the 2027 presidential election and recommended any members of the next cabinet be “completely disconnected” from the upcoming race. His remark reflects the pre-election fever that has captured the nation. From the far right to the far left, politicians are seeking to capitalise on the discord and position themselves as the alternative, raising the costs of making compromises with Macron out of fear of alienating voters.

Amid all this head-spinning turmoil, which, disclaimer, might well change soon after the delivery of this newsletter, Brussels is watching with a mix of curiosity, alarm and despair. Diplomats and officials are trying to portray a facade of confidence, arguing the Fifth Republic supplies the president with sufficient powers to maintain a modicum of stability and predictability in European and foreign affairs.

In other words, no matter how many prime ministers come and go, rise and fall, Macron is still there.

The president seems to relish that dogma. Over the past year, as his country plunged into ungovernability, Macron has doubled down on diplomacy. He has led efforts to establish the “Coalition of the Willing” for Ukraine and to recognise the State of Palestine. He has fostered ties with Donald Trump to ensure an open line of communication. He has passionately embraced a deregulatory agenda and stimulated a high-level debate on the 2040 climate target. He has promoted his “Made In Europe” preference to the point of becoming official EU policy. He has hosted conferences on artificial intelligence, scientific research and the oceans. And of course, he’s given a lot of speeches laying out his vision for Europe’s future.

But how long can you realistically prevent domestic chaos from spilling over? How much can you sweep under the carpet before others notice the rotten smell?

After all, France is the second-largest member state and the second-largest economy. Any ups and downs inside the country are set to be felt beyond its borders, whether we choose to pay attention or close our eyes. Take the budget: France’s ballooning deficit and debt levels have prompted a headline-making downgrade from credit agencies and equally headline-making disciplinary measures from the European Commission. The situation is so serious that the long-held mantra of Paris is “too big” to be punished has been shattered. Privately, diplomats in Brussels joke (or lament, or perhaps do both) that France has become the most “frugal” country in the union, an unbelievable turnaround from the expansionary view that Macron advocated in the 2020 budget negotiations.

Now, there’s a new EU budget on the table, worth a whopping €2 trillion, waiting to be negotiated. Given the myriad of internal and external challenges, the outcome of those talks will shape the bloc for years to come. What France says and does will be closely observed. Traditionally, all major decisions at the EU level, from defence to migration, require the conformity of the so-called Franco-German axis. That is, Berlin and France have to be, one way or the other, on the same page before the entire union can move into uncharted territory. And arguably, there has never been so much uncharted territory to explore.

This time, though, France might prefer to lean back and be towed.