Thursday, October 16, 2025

The AI investing boom gets its posterboy: Meet Leopold Aschenbrenner

Leopold Aschenbrenner begins his monograph Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead with one striking line: “You can see the future first in San Francisco.”

What follows are 165 pages about what the future of AI will look like, drawn with clarity and theoretical forcefulness. The essay went viral and a new Silicon Valley wunderkind was born.

The fresh-faced 23-year-old—who had been fired from OpenAI and who began his career at FTX’s doomed philanthropy arm—was catapulted to new heights: He now runs a hedge fund managing more than $1.5 billion.

It’s a remarkable story in its own right. And as my colleague Sharon Goldman reported in a recent profile of the German-born Aschenbrenner, the story is all the more notable for the ways in which it’s clearly a sign of the times, and the divisive reactions the young AI researcher attracted.

As Goldman writes:

To some, Aschenbrenner is a rare genius who saw the moment—the coming of humanlike artificial general intelligence, China’s accelerating AI race, and the vast fortunes awaiting those who move first—more clearly than anyone else. To others, including several former OpenAI colleagues, he’s a lucky novice with no finance track record, repackaging hype into a hedge fund pitch.

But why a hedge fund, and not a VC firm (this is Silicon Valley, not Greenwich, Connecticut, after all)? That was my first question, and I’m not the only one. Goldman garnered some insight from an LP who spoke on the condition of anonymity:

“Another investor in Situational Awareness LP, who manages a leading hedge fund, told Fortune that he was struck by Aschenbrenner’s answer when asked why he was starting a hedge fund focused on AI rather than a VC fund, which seemed like the most obvious choice.

“He said that AGI was going to be so impactful to the global economy that the only way to fully capitalize on it was to express investment ideas in the most liquid markets in the world,” he said. “I am a bit stunned by how fast they have come up the learning curve … They are way more sophisticated on AI investing than anyone else I speak to in the public markets.“

It’s a story worth reading, not only for its uncommonly interesting central figure—even for AI—but for the ways in which it touches on the intellectual subcultures surrounding tech, from effective altruism to rationalists. Read the whole story here.

See you tomorrow,

Allie Garfinkle
X: @agarfinks
Email: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com
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Venture Deals

- Starship Technologies, a San Francisco-based autonomous delivery company, raised $50 million in Series C funding. Plural led the round and was joined by Karma.vc, Latitude, and others.

- Campfire, a San Francisco-based AI-native ERP, raised $65 million in Series B funding. Accel and Ribit co-led the round and were joined by Foundation Capital and Y Combinator.

- Wild Bioscience, an Oxford, U.K.-based crop resilience company, raised $60 million in Series A funding. The Ellison Institute of Technology led the round and was joined by existing investors Oxford Science Enterprises, Braavos Capital, and the University of Oxford.

- Viven, a Santa Clara, Calif.-based developer of digital AI twins for employees, raised $35 million in seed funding from Khosla Ventures, Foundation Capital, FPV Ventures, Operator Collective, and others.

- Prisma Photonics, a Tel Aviv, Israel-based large-scale infrastructure monitoring company, raised $30 million in Series D funding. Protego Ventures led the round and was joined by Adara Ventures and others.

- MatrixSpace, a Burlington, Mass.-based developer of portable AI-enhanced radar counter drone sensing technology, raised $20 million in Series B funding. The Raptor Group and OTB Ventures led the round and were joined by L3Harris and others.

- Aboon, a New York City-based AI-powered 401k platform for financial advisors, raised $17.5 million in seed funding. Bain Capital Ventures led the round and was joined by Altai Ventures, Runyon, and others.

- LuxQuanta, a Barcelona, Spain-based quantum security company, raised €8 million ($9.3 million) in Series A funding. Big Sur Ventures led the round and was joined by others.

- Trove AI, a San Francisco, Calif.-based developer of an AI teammate for private equity, raised $7.1 million in seed funding. Menlo Ventures led the round and was joined by Khosla Ventures.

- Provision, a Toronto, Ontario-based developer of an AI copilot for construction estimators, raised $7 million in seed funding. Cercano Management led the round and was joined by Y Combinator, One Way Ventures, and others.

- Matters.AI, a Wilmington, Del. and Bangalore, India-based developer of an AI security engineer for data, raised $6.3 million in funding across seed and pre-seed rounds. Kaalari Capital and Endiya Partners led the seed round and were joined by Better Capital, Carya Venture Partners, and others. Better Capital and Carya Venture Partners led the pre-seed round.

- Woz, a San Francisco-based AI-powered app-building platform, raised $6 million in seed funding. Cervin Ventures led the round and was joined by Burst Capital, Y Combinator, Untapped Ventures, and others.

- cto.new, a London, U.K.-based AI code agent, raised $5.7 million in pre-seed and seed funding from Kindred Ventures, PROfounders Capital, Wonder Ventures, and Entrepreneurs First.

- Aragorn AI, a Plano, Texas-based employee data platform, raised $4.3 million in seed funding. LiveOak Ventures led the round and was joined by Dallas Venture Capital.

- SLNG, a London, U.K.-based global speech AI infrastructure platform, raised $3.9 million in pre-seed funding. Earlybird VC led the round.

- Ploy, a London, U.K.-based cybersecurity startup, raised £2.5 million ($3.4 million) in funding. Osney Capital led the round and was joined by others.

Private Equity

- Lone Star Funds agreed to take Hillenbrand, a Batesville, Ind.-based processing equipment and systems provider, private for approximately $3.8 billion.

- Accel-KKR acquired a majority stake in Phocas Software, a Sydney, Australia-based business intelligence and financial planning & analysis company. Financial terms were not disclosed.

- ARCHIMED acquired DermaPharm, a Fårup, Denmark-based developer of suncare, skincare, and haircare products. Financial terms were not disclosed.

- Bonterra, backed by Apax Partners, acquired OneCause, a Carmel, Ind.-based developer of fundraising software. Financial terms were not disclosed.

- Learning Pool, a portfolio company of Marlin Equity Partners, acquired WorkRamp, a San Francisco-based learning management system for mid-market companies. Financial terms were not disclosed.

- Northrim Horizon acquired a majority stake in Solutions360 USA, a Mesa, Ariz.-based business management software provider. Financial terms were not disclosed.