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| The Daily Pitch: VC, PE and M&A |
| PE, VC and M&A |
| The Daily Pitch is powered by PitchBook’s industry-defining research and best-in-class data |
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| Good morning. Today's Daily Pitch looks at improved private capital returns, the resilience of health-conscious brands and a funding surge in carbon tech. |
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| AI power demand fuels PE deals in European energy |
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By Andrea Gaini, Private Equity Reporter
As GPs seek to capitalize on surging electricity demand driven by AI and data centers, PE investment in Europe's energy sector could yet set a record this year.
According to PitchBook data, as of Nov. 10, the sector has recorded €38.6 billion (about $44.7 billion) in investments across 245 deals. Deal value is already above 2023 levels and, if activity continues at the same pace, total investment is expected to surpass last year's €42 billion, marking the strongest year for energy investment in the past five.
One factor driving investment has been the rapid expansion of data centers, which has transformed energy demand across the continent.
According to Goldman Sachs research, European data center power demand is forecast to increase European electricity use by 10% to 15% over the next 10 to 15 years, with new data center capacity potentially reaching around 100 gigawatts by 2030-35. |
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PE capital flows into the sector are also supported by easing monetary policy across Europe, with both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England cutting interest rates this year. With inflation broadly in line with expectations, increased economic stability has boosted dealmaker confidence and lowered financing costs for large-scale projects.
On the other hand, deal count has decreased significantly compared to previous years, reflecting a broader trend in European PE toward fewer but larger transactions.
Foreign capital also plays a significant role. PitchBook data shows that €33.9 billion worth of deals involved foreign participation. This already exceeds 2024 levels and is on track to easily surpass 2021 and 2022, making 2025 the strongest year for foreign capital investment in European energy to date. |
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| A message from Moss Adams |
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| Investors balance patience and pricing as private markets steady |
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Moss Adams’ latest report tracks how investors are navigating a private market marked by valuation discipline, selective exits, and rising insider participation. With over 90% of venture rounds pricing higher than prior financings and PE firms holding more portfolio companies than ever, 2025 has become a test of patience and positioning.
Key insights include:
- The share of down rounds has dropped from 15.3% in 2024 to 6.4% YTD.
- Late-stage venture accounts for more than 75% of recent down rounds.
- Insider-led VC deals have reached a decade high of 9.1% of all financings.
- PE holdings hit a record 12,552 companies, with longer ownership compressing returns.
- SaaS and AI & ML drive nearly half of 2025 exit value, while life sciences trails prior-year totals.
Read it now |
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• VC funding for the carbon tech market hit $3.5 billion in Q3—jumping 40% quarter-over-quarter amid a wave of mega-deals. See what else our analysts discovered
• PE dealmaking in the consumer packaged goods sector is dipping, but premium healthy brands remain resilient. Find out more
• The PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor now includes league tables for the industry's most active investors. See the rankings |
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| Clouds begin to clear on private capital return landscape |
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By Miles Ostroff, Associate Quantitative Research Analyst
The return environment across most private market strategies has improved notably since early 2025, according to PitchBook's Q3 2025 Private Capital Return Barometers report.
The Barometers bridge the gap created by lagged private fund reporting, using macroeconomic and market indicators to provide an early pulse on where real returns are heading next. The latest readings show a meaningful recovery from the lows preceding the April tariff announcements, driven by rallying equity and credit markets, stronger sentiment and looser monetary policy.
In aggregate, all strategies but one registered higher Barometer scores in September than in March, signaling a more constructive backdrop for private capital. The readings show that conditions across private equity, venture capital, private debt and infrastructure have strengthened, now sitting within the neutral range that reflects average expected returns. The natural resources category was the lone exception, weighed down by softer commodity prices. |
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While scores remain within the neutral range, the upward shift underscores a stabilization in market fundamentals.
"Across asset classes, improving equity performance and moderating volatility have supported stronger Barometer readings," said Nathan Schwartz, senior quantitative research analyst at PitchBook. "In general, the prevailing economic and market environment is supportive of returns across private fund strategies."
Taken together, the latest results suggest private markets are entering a steadier phase. Return expectations for Q3 2025 remain near long-term averages, but the upward drift from March signals that the worst of the April tariffs' impacts may be over.
To explore the underlying factors driving these readings, allocators can view the full Q3 2025 Private Capital Return Barometers report. |
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Smart reads that caught our eye.
• The US and China are in an AI cold war. The AI landscape has shifted dramatically in the last year or so from US dominance to a race between two global superpowers. [The Wall Street Journal]
• How will tariffs impact this year's Black Friday? Retailers will likely offer fewer discounts on products due to increased cost of goods to retailers. [Bloomberg]
• The government shutdown could end this week, but your flight might still be delayed. Airports won't be able to bounce back immediately when the government opens back up. [ | | | | | | | |
