Data refreshes every time you open this email. For more energy news, click here. Please send any feedback to powerup@thomsonreuters.com.

Hello Power Up readers,

Those closely following the energy industry will no doubt have already sensed that the energy transition has lost steam in recent years as governments have turned their attention to energy security and costs.

It was therefore perhaps not a huge surprise when the International Energy Agency on Wednesday released a new outlook signalling that oil demand may continue rising into 2050 – and not plateau in 2030 as the IEA had indicated in previous reports.

It’s a stark reminder of how difficult it will be for the world to shake off its addiction to fossil fuels and how far off course we are from taking the action needed to limit global warming.

OPEC was quick to respond to the U-turn, calling it “the IEA’s rendezvous with reality.”

The reality check comes as governments and scientists gather in Belem, Brazil for the annual COP30 climate talks, which are likely to be far less consequential than the Paris talks a decade ago, where governments agreed to set hard targets to battle climate change.

More on this below.

The growing confidence in the long-term prospects for the oil industry was also plain to see when U.S. oil giant Chevron unveiled on Wednesday its updated strategy. The company plans to continue investing heavily in oil and gas production into the next decade with new projects and, importantly, a revival of its oil and gas exploration activities, a long-term, high-risk, high-reward business. The company also largely brushed off near-term concerns about a looming oversupply in the market. You can read about my thoughts on the strategy update here.

Here are a few more news headlines and columns from this week:

I love to get your thoughts and comments, so don’t hesitate to contact me at ron.bousso@thomsonreuters.com or follow me on LinkedIn.

The IEA's annual World Energy Outlook maps out different trajectories for energy demand through 2050. This release is normally a pretty mundane affair, but not this year, as the outlook has become a political football.

Officials in President Trump’s administration have accused the Paris-based watchdog of politicising energy by suggesting that demand for fossil fuels could plateau by 2030. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has called peak oil demand "nonsensical".

It is therefore notable that the 2025 report introduced a new scenario showing that, given current government policies, oil demand will not plateau in 2030 but will instead hit 113 million barrels per day by mid-century, up around 13% from 2024 consumption.

The “existing policies” baked into the Current Policy Scenario (CPS) range from renewables mandates and fossil fuel extraction laws to construction and vehicle emission standards.

The CPS, which appears to be the base scenario among several IEA projections, "offers a cautious perspective" on the speed of adoption of new technologies and therefore assumes a bigger role for fossil fuels in the coming decades.

Former critics of the IEA may hail this about-face as a much-needed dose of reality to counter the organisation's previous green leanings. And, to be fair, previous scenarios probably were overly optimistic about the implementation of climate-friendly policies and the shift away from fossil fuels.

But political matters aside, the message CPS is sending is troubling.

Find ROI on the Reuters website, and join the debate on LinkedIn and X.