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UK inflation holds at 3.6% before key Budget | Foreign Treasury demand dips, but Japan boosts holdings | HSBC's Elhedery: Fragmentation rising, but trade strong
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19 November 2025
 
 
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Morning Bell
 
China 10Y yield nears Japan's, sparking deflation fears
China's 10-year government bond yield is approaching Japan's for the first time, raising concerns about deflation in China. The yield on China's 10-year bond is near a two-month low due to weak economic data and stock market losses, while Japan's yield has surged to its highest since 2008 amid inflation worries and increased government spending.
Full Story: Bloomberg (19 Nov.), Financial Times (19 Nov.)
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Industry News
 
UK inflation holds at 3.6% before key Budget
UK inflation eased to 3.6% in October, a slight decline but still above forecasts, in the final data release before Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivers a Budget aimed at lowering living costs. Core inflation rose 3.4% and services inflation dipped to 4.5%, keeping pressure on the Treasury as Reeves considers measures such as cutting VAT on energy bills to curb price growth. Economists said further Bank of England rate cuts will depend heavily on the Budget's impact on inflation.
Full Story: City A.M. (London) (19 Nov.), Financial Times (19 Nov.)
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Foreign Treasury demand dips, but Japan boosts holdings
Foreign holdings of US Treasurys fell slightly in September, the first decline in six months, to $9.25 trillion. However Japan increased its holdings to $1.19 trillion, the highest since August 2022. China's holdings dropped to $700.5 billion.
Full Story: The Economic Times (India) (19 Nov.), The Standard (Hong Kong) (19 Nov.), Reuters (18 Nov.)
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HSBC's Elhedery: Fragmentation rising, but trade strong
HSBC CEO Georges Elhedery has said he expects an increasingly fragmented world with more "national security assets", but that there will still be a "cohesive financial system". Additionally, "there's a huge ocean of opportunities where business is still conducted on a cross border basis," he said.
Full Story: Bloomberg (19 Nov.)
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AI valuation concerns drive US tech stock sell-off
US tech stocks declined as investors expressed concerns about high valuations of artificial intelligence companies ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, with the Nasdaq Composite falling 1.2% and the S&P 500 dropping 0.8%. Major AI-driven companies such as Nvidia, Microsoft and Amazon experienced significant losses due to rising skepticism about the sustainability of AI-related capital expenditures.
Full Story: NBC News (19 Nov.), Financial Times (18 Nov.)
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London stocks near milestone as market optimism rises
The FTSE 100 has gained 17% year-to-date and is just 4.6% off the 10,000 point milestone, outperforming the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Furthermore, the speed at which the index is climbing past 1,000-point increments is notable. "It's only been 119 days since the FTSE 100 hit 9,000, so exceeding 10,000 before the end of 2025 would make it a record breaker," said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell.
Full Story: CNBC (19 Nov.)
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Hedge funds see gains from Argentina trades after US aid
Hedge funds experienced notable gains in October as trades on Argentine assets paid off following a US rescue package and political developments favoring President Javier Milei. Redwood Capital Management's two funds gained about $129 million from Argentina positions, while Shiprock Capital Management advanced 6.4%--its second-best month ever.
Full Story: Buenos Aires Times (Argentina) (18 Nov.), Financial Times (19 Nov.)
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LSEG launches risk optimization tool for FX options
London Stock Exchange Group has introduced a market risk optimization tool to help foreign exchange options desks manage complex exposures without interdealer brokers. It plans to expand the service to other asset classes, such as interest rate swaptions and equity options.
Full Story: Risk (subscription required) (19 Nov.)
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Regulatory Roundup
 
Basel Committee to revisit crypto amid stablecoin growth
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision Chair Erik Thedeen has said global rules requiring banks to hold substantial capital against crypto assets need revision due to the rapid growth of stablecoins. The US and the UK rejected the rules, set to take effect in January, as they would require a 1,250% risk weighting for volatile digital assets.
Full Story: Financial Times (19 Nov.)
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Spotlight on China
 
PBOC likely to hold lending rates for sixth month
China is expected to keep its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the sixth consecutive month, reflecting a period of rate stability amid ongoing economic uncertainty. According to a Reuters survey, all 23 respondents anticipate that both the one-year and five-year loan prime rates will remain at 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively.
Full Story: Reuters (19 Nov.)
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GFMA News
 
Access Comprehensive Data in SIFMA's 2025 Capital Markets Fact Book
Capital markets play a critical role in financing the US economy, providing 75.3% of financing for non-financial corporations through issuance of equity and debt securities. Debt capital markets are particularly dominant in the US at 76.8% of total financing, in contrast to other regions, where bank lending dominates at 83.9%. Discover more facts in SIFMA's Capital Markets Fact Book.
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