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Plus, China 10Y yield nears Japan's, sparking deflation fears
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November 19, 2025
 
 
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UK inflation holds at 3.6% before key Budget
UK inflation eased to 3.6% in October, a slight decline but still above forecasts, in the final data release before UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivers a Budget aimed at lowering living costs. Core inflation rose 3.4% and services inflation dipped to 4.5%, keeping pressure on the UK Treasury as Reeves considers measures such as cutting VAT on energy bills to curb price growth. Economists said further Bank of England rate cuts will depend heavily on the Budget's impact on inflation.
Full Story: City A.M. (London) (11/19), Financial Times (11/19)
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Fed's Barkin: Data crucial for Dec. policy decision
Richmond US Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin has emphasized the importance of upcoming economic data in guiding the central bank's decisions at its December meeting, noting the challenge of assessing inflation and unemployment without official statistics following a federal shutdown.
Full Story: The Wall Street Journal (11/18), Reuters (11/18), Bloomberg Law (11/18)
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Industry News and Trends
 
China 10Y yield nears Japan's, sparking deflation fears
China's 10-year government bond yield is approaching Japan's for the first time, raising concerns about deflation in China. The yield on China's 10-year bond is near a two-month low due to weak economic data and stock market losses, while Japan's yield has surged to its highest since 2008 amid inflation worries and increased government spending.
Full Story: Bloomberg (11/19), Financial Times (11/19)
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PBOC likely to hold lending rates for sixth month
China is expected to keep its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the sixth consecutive month, reflecting a period of rate stability amid ongoing economic uncertainty. According to a Reuters survey, all 23 respondents anticipate that both the one-year and five-year loan prime rates will remain at 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively.
Full Story: Reuters (11/19)
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Foreign Treasury demand dips, but Japan boosts holdings
Foreign holdings of US Treasurys fell slightly in September, the first decline in six months, to $9.25 trillion. However, Japan increased its holdings to $1.19 trillion, the highest since August 2022. China's holdings dropped to $700.5 billion.
Full Story: The Economic Times (India) (11/19), The Standard (Hong Kong) (11/19), Reuters (11/18)
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Regulatory Roundup
 
CFTC's Pham advocates tech-neutral, flexible regulation
Acting US Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Caroline Pham has advocated a technology-neutral and activity-based regulatory framework to attract innovative trading venues and support startups. Pham emphasized the need for durable and flexible regulations to avoid the unintended consequences of the Dodd-Frank Act, such as market fragmentation.
Full Story: Futures & Options World (11/18)
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Basel Committee to revisit crypto amid stablecoin growth
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision Chair Erik Thedéen has said global rules requiring banks to hold substantial capital against crypto assets need revising due to the rapid growth of stablecoins. The US and the UK rejected the rules, set to take effect in January, as they would require a 1,250% risk weighting for volatile digital assets.
Full Story: Financial Times (11/19)
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Registration Open! ISDA's 40th AGM in BOSTON, April 28-30
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Registration Open! ISDA's 40th AGM in BOSTON, April 28-30
Get ready for the most anticipated event in the derivatives calendar! Global market leaders, innovators and policymakers will meet at the ISDA AGM to exchange ideas and help shape the future of the industry. Join us for 3 days of engaging discussions, insights and unmatched networking opportunities with the people driving progress across financial markets. Register before December 31st to take advantage of early promo pricing. Click here to register.
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Complimentary Registration - ISDA Trading Book Capital in London, Dec. 2
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Complimentary Registration - ISDA Trading Book Capital in London, Dec. 2
This event will bring together policymakers, regulators, and industry leaders to examine key developments and challenges related to the implementation of the trading book capital framework and discuss timelin