Constrained global refining capacity due to sanctions on Russia, shutdowns and ongoing maintenance has pushed refining profits to multi-month highs in major markets. The 3-2-1 crack spread in the US reached $32.13 per barrel on Monday, near an earlier high, while diesel and gasoline margins in Europe and Asia also climbed to their highest levels in more than a year as product shortages persist. "The high margins are already pricing in a lot of disruption and giving refineries everywhere a strong incentive to ramp up runs," said Eugene Lindell of energy consultancy FGE.

Spot prices for moving LNG from the US to Europe jumped by 19% to $98,250 per day on Monday, the highest level since January 2024, according to Spark Commodities. The increase reflects stronger demand as North American exports ramp up and absorb more of the available fleet. Vessel scarcity is also pushing Pacific rates higher, though analysts say new carrier deliveries should limit additional spikes.

Peak load growth in the US is expected to increase by an incredible 166 gigawatts over the next five years, according to Grid Strategies. That represents a significant leap, compared to a 2023 estimate of 38 gigawatts by 2028. Grid Strategies attributes the uptick to data center development, which it expects to account for 90 GW of the new peak demand growth. That said, the report is based on forecasts submitted to grid operators and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, with actual figures potentially lower.

US crude oil stockpiles swelled by 4.4 million barrels last week, following a 1.3-million-barrel increase the week prior, American Petroleum Institute data show. Gasoline and distillate inventories also expanded by 1.5 million barrels and 600,000 barrels, respectively, but remain below their five-year seasonal average.

Talks at the COP30 summit in Brazil are at a critical juncture, with a draft agreement released on Tuesday indicating lingering divisions about how to aid developing countries as they adjust to climate change. Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is set to return to the talks, potentially aiding negotiations.

US offshore drilling is experiencing a revival as advances in ultra-high pressure drilling technology opens access to deepwater oil and gas reserves that were previously out of reach. Chevron and TotalEnergies are already using the technology at the Anchor development in the Gulf of America, while Shell and BP preparing similar applications at new fields as operators look beyond aging shallow-water fields and plateauing shale output. The Energy Information Administration expects US Gulf oil production from 1.8 million barrels per day now to 2.4 million bpd in 2027.

Energy companies are competing to build a fuel pipeline to the West Coast to replace nearly 288,000 barrels per day of supply that will disappear when two California refineries shut down, threatening to tighten an already high-priced fuel market. Projects from HF Sinclair, ONEOK and a Phillips 66-Kinder Morgan partnership all seek to fill the gap, though analysts say only the first to lock in shipper commitments is likely to advance. Refining executives remain skeptical any pipeline will be built because seaborne cargoes offer more flexibility and better access to global arbitrage.