When we asked for your investment predictions at the end of last year, the majority of you were overwhelmingly optimistic—as were experts at the time. While you didn’t hit the nail square on the head, you didn’t exactly smash your fingers, either.

You said: The S&P 500 would end the year up.

The vast majority of you guessed correctly that the S&P would be in the green this year, so we’re giving you a point. However, only 39% accurately predicted it would pop more than 10%. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs also underestimated the index’s climb, predicting it’d notch 6,500 points this year—as of December 23, it was sitting pretty at 6,909.79 points. Investors seemed to shrug off the great tariff panic that rattled markets this spring and instead latched onto the AI boom, boosting shares of any company that’s bumped into AI on the subway, despite concerns of a bubble brewing.

You said: Bitcoin would be worth $105,000–$150,000.

When we asked you for your bitcoin price prediction, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap was worth ~$94k apiece. Six-in-10 of you thought it would end 2025 at or above that level. Just 30% guessed what really happened: It went down. After rising to a record high above $126k—propped up by support from institutional investors, regulators, and the POTUS—bitcoin erased all its annual gains during a deleveraging crisis this fall and failed to recover after. Experts also missed the mark: Bitwise and Standard Chartered predicted bitcoin would hit $200k this year, while VanEck analysts expected $180k.—JW

We asked a handful of geopolitical questions last year, and it wasn’t your strongest subject. If this were a test where you could earn partial credit, though, you’d likely fare okay, because your predictions and what actually happened weren’t far off.

You said: Mexico and Canada would get tariffs between 0% and 25%.

Only 7% of you said that President Trump would stick to his 25% tariff plan for our North American neighbors—and he did, technically. While 25% tariffs on all imports from Mexico and Canada went into effect on March 4, within days, Trump walked back the plan and exempted goods that comply with a trade pact from his first term. The vast majority of goods from Canada and Mexico fall under the deal, which is up for review in July. However, according to the ReedSmith Tariff Tracker, Canada and Mexico ended up with some 10%, 25%, and 35% tariffs due to the countries’ perceived roles in fentanyl getting into the United States. It seems safe to say that no one foresaw how complicated this would get.

You said: The Donald Trump-Elon Musk bromance would not end.

Trump and Musk had a public breakup in June that started when Musk criticized Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill. The argument escalated, with Trump posting on Truth Social that “Elon is wearing thin” and suggesting he’d pull subsidies from SpaceX and Tesla (though Trump later clarified that he did not want to “destroy” the companies). The duo has since smoothed things over, but they’re far less buddy-buddy following the feud, and it seems to have affected their political relationship, too. In November, Trump dissolved the Department of Government Efficiency, aka DOGE, Musk’s initiative to slash government spending.

You said: There would be ceasefires in Gaza and Ukraine. and

The majority of you predicted there would be ceasefires in both Gaza and Ukraine this year. A ceasefire has not been reached between Russia and Ukraine. There is technically one in place between Gaza and Israel as part of a three-stage peace plan brokered by the US, but the United Nations reports that hundreds of Palestinians have been killed and wounded “since the fragile ceasefire agreement came into effect in late October.”—JW

From the biggest screen to the smallest, entertainment faced a year of uncertainty. TikTok’s ban loomed large, and Hollywood anxiously awaited a slate of box-office biggies to complete its comeback. Meanwhile, Tayvis kept on keeping on.

Your predictions for how the year in entertainment would pan out were hit-or-miss. OK, mostly miss.

You said: TikTok wouldn’t get banned in the US.  

The 72% of you who said the social app wouldn’t be banned are mostly right—and the rest of you can take home a technical win, because TikTok was shut down for ~14 hours on January 19. The fate of the #ForYouPage appears to be stabilizing: A group of US investors, including Oracle and Silver Lake, signed agreements to take over stateside operations of the app from China-based ByteDance.

You said: Wicked: For Good would earn the most at the global box office.

Instead, Zootopia 2 had the biggest opening weekend of any movie in 2025, with $556 million globally. Only 7% of you predicted Judy Hopps would bounce to the top of the list, with nearly a third predicting Wicked: For Good would win out instead. Zootopia 2 was the biggest global animated opening of all time and the No. 4 biggest global opening…period. The domestic box office this year is on track to match or exceed the US box office’s post-pandemic high of ~$9 billion.

You said: The Kansas City Chiefs would win Super Bowl LIX.

More than a third of you thought Andy Reid would get Gatorade dumped on his head this year. Instead, the Philadelphia Eagles won, which just 11% of you predicted.

You said: Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce would stay together, but not get engaged.

Instead of getting a Super Bowl ring this year, Kelce got a vintage-style ~8- to 10-carat ring for Tay.—JW

Only hindsight is 20/20, and crystal balls into the future always seem to be filled with swirling fog. But that doesn’t stop experts from trying to take a sneak peek at what’s up ahead. Here’s what they expect next year:

Counting on the AI-conomy: US GDP growth is expected to slow in the first half of the year but pick back up in the second half, according to Morgan Stanley. But that soft landing hinges on high consumer and business confidence, boosted by tax cuts and fiscal stimulus that are set for 2026. Analysts are also counting on the continued growth of AI—and the S&P 500 along with it. The average prediction on Wall Street is that the S&P 500 will grow by 10.5% in 2026 as the hype continues. Meanwhile, critics are concerned about how AI will impact the economy if it continues to boost productivity without creating jobs. The Indeed Hiring Lab predicted that unemployment will rise slightly next year.

Small hopes for homebuying: A larger number of adults will move back in with their parents or find roommates, as buying a house is expected to remain an out-of-reach dream, according to Redfin. But there’s hope on the horizon: Redfin is calling next year the beginning of “The Great Reset,” when wages will grow faster than home prices for the first time since 2008. Eventually, that could mean affordable houses. But not next year.

Culture pops off: Scott Feinberg of the Hollywood Reporter predicted that One Battle After Another would be the front-runner for the best picture Oscar. Venture capital firm Konvoy thinks Grand Theft Auto VI will make $7.6 billion in its first two months when (if?) it finally comes out next fall. The Opta supercomputer expects Spain to win the World Cup. And fashion trend forecaster Heuritech expects wearing dots to be all the rage.—JW

We’ve got a slate of questions for you all about the year ahead, including:

• Who wins the bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery
• Which AI company will go public in 2026?
• What will we see from Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau in 2026?

Cast your votes here. We’ll reconvene around this time next year to see how you did. Good luck!