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Startup founders' famously unflappable optimism may finally have some reason behind it.
For the first time in three years, PitchBook's dealmaking indicator, which quantifies the fundraising environment as either friendlier to investors or startups, has flipped in favor of early-stage founders.
"When it comes to pricing, founders are dictating a lot," said Roseanne Wincek, co-founder and managing director of Renegade Partners. "The momentum and heat in the market, the competitive dynamics—when there's so much interest around the table, the founder gets to choose and therefore dictate pricing, and the crazy pricing we're seeing is reflecting this."
Investors point to multiple factors at play, but they all have the same core: exuberance.
An unmet demand for AI engineering talent, big multiple-stage firms bidding up prices and startups growing increasingly faster are all putting founders in the driver's seat when it comes to dealmaking.
But some VCs fear the environment could soon tip into overexuberance.
I'm Jacob Robbins, and this is The Weekend Pitch. You can reach me at jacob.robbins@pitchbook.com or on X @JacobERobbins.
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| Artificial intelligence—Ready or not? Evaluating AI readiness in due diligence |
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Like everyone else, operating partners are intrigued by the promise of artificial intelligence to transform businesses. But in private equity, the imperative is to prioritize practical over aspirational impact. At the same time, limited partners and boards are pressing for visible AI moves, creating urgency that can outpace readiness. For investors, this means any AI bet as a portfolio value driver must be grounded in validated use cases with a measurable line of sight to EBITDA in six months or less.
That’s no small task, especially in light of a recent report from MIT’s NANDA initiative, which shows that 95% of generative AI pilots at companies are failing. Learn how to identify signs of real AI readiness. |
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US private equity rebounded spectacularly in 2025 after a rocky start, notching the second-highest funding total on record. How much deal value did US PE generate overall last year?
A) $2.1 trillion
B) $567.8 billion
C) $1.2 trillion
D) $873.1 billion
Find your answer at the bottom of The Weekend Pitch! |
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A selection from our most-read articles of the past few days.
• 2025 was the best funding year by far for US-based female founders. Startups with at least one female founder raised over $127 billion across 3,075 deals—an 85% increase over the previous record of $68.6 billion set in 2021, according to our female founders dashboard.
• While AI-developed drugs may be further away than hoped, investors remain excited about the sector. Here are the 10 most active VC investors in AI drug discovery startups. See the list
• The US has usurped Singapore as the country with the most VC dollars per capita, while Europe's growing presence in the top 10 signals a more mature ecosystem. Read more |
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"The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public."
—Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, responding to a subpoena threatening a criminal indictment. It's the latest escalation in the ongoing feud between President Donald Trump, who has long rallied for a lowering of interest rates, and the central bank, which has sought to maintain its independence. |
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Keep an eye out for these insights and research reports coming out this week:
- 2025 Annual European Venture Report
- Q4 2025 Healthcare Services Public Comp Sheet and Valuation Guide
- Q4 2025 France Market Snapshot
- Q4 2025 Enterprise SaaS Public Comp Sheet and Valuation Guide
- Analyst Note: Fintech State of the Industry 2026
- Analyst Note: AI Technologies in Climate Tech
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Answer: C
Overall US PE deal value rose to $1.2 trillion in 2025, the second-highest total on record behind 2021. You can find out what factors drove PE dealmaking and what's in store for 2026 by reading our latest US PE Breakdown. |
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This edition of The Weekend Pitch was written by Jacob Robbins. It was edited by Kia Kokalitcheva and John Moore.
Were you forwarded The Weekend Pitch? Sign up at pitchbook.com/subscribe. |
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