Making sense of the forces driving global markets

By Jamie McGeever, Reuters Open Interest Markets Columnist 

World stocks climbed to new highs and gold smashed through the $5,000-an-ounce barrier on Monday, while the dollar's slide gathered pace as investors braced for a deluge of U.S. earnings and a Federal Reserve policy decision this week.

More on that below. In my column today I look into signs that the rumblings of a U.S. productivity boom may be going global. Could all that AI spending be bearing fruit? It's early days, but investors and policymakers alike will be paying close attention.

I’d love to hear from you, so please reach out to me with comments at jamie.mcgeever@thomsonreuters.com. You can also follow me at @ReutersJamie and @reutersjamie.bsky.social. 

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* Yen intervention speculation

After the New York Fed's rare step of checking dollar/yen rates on Friday, speculation is mounting over when, if or how direct yen-buying intervention might follow. The dollar's fall of more than 3% since Friday is pretty substantial, considering no official selling has yet taken place.

There are good reasons why coordinated Japan-US intervention might not happen now. But if Tokyo wants to ensure the yen's recovery from its historic lows is a lasting one, it might have to step in, like it did in late 2022 and again in 2024.  

* Silver and gold rush

January 26, 2026. A landmark day for gold as it rises above $5,000/oz for the first time, a far cry from the days of the 'Washington Agreement' and $250/oz a quarter of a century ago. And if SocGen and others are right, it is heading for $6,000/oz.

Silver's rise is even more staggering, crossing $100/oz on Friday for the first time. It soared as much as 13% on Monday before cooling. But it is still up 15% in the last three trading sessions, and up 35% this year. Supply issues and momentum buying are factors, but the speculative wave of hot money is considerable. The correction could be messy. 

* Big Tech earnings

By some measures, U.S. tech is lagging so far this year, especially the megacaps - the Roundhill 'Mag 7' ETF is flat year-to-date while the Russell 2000 is up 8%. Indeed, Raymond James CIO Larry Adams notes that mega-cap tech is having its worst start to a year relative to the S&P 500 since 2010.

But early year tech underperformance is nothing new or alarming, Adam says. 'Big Tech' has bounced back in recent years, and valuations today relative to the rest of the market are the most compelling in years. This week's earnings and guidance from Apple, Microsoft and Meta Platforms will be instructive.

The rumblings of a productivity boom are reverberating through the U.S. economy – and they may be going global. 

Technological leaps have long been the hallmark of U.S. economic efficiency, flexibility and dynamism – trends that artificial intelligence is expected to accelerate – but there are nascent signs that the benefits of AI may be spreading.

Purchasing managers' index (PMI) figures on Friday showed that British business activity has started this year on a strong footing, with robust demand at home and abroad spurring the fastest output growth since April 2024.

Firms also noted a solid decline in employment, with the pace of job losses accelerating from December. Britain's PMI employment sub-indexes have been below the threshold separating expansion from contraction since late 2024. 

Britain, therefore, appears to be producing an increasing amount of goods and services per hour worked – the textbook definition of productivity growth.