For years, crypto has moved like clockwork:
Halving → hype → blow-off top → brutal bear market → repeat.
And that “four-year cycle” model worked… because Bitcoin was driven mostly by retail emotion.
Fast money rushed in. Fast money rushed out. The crashes were violent.
But what’s changing now is who is buying.
Today, a growing share of Bitcoin demand is coming from:
• ETFs
• banks
• long-term funds
• institutions that think in multi-year windows
And that single shift changes how the market behaves.
Institutions don’t panic-buy and panic-sell.
They accumulate gradually. They rebalance. They lock up supply.
That’s why the old “80% crash” expectation is becoming less reliable.
Here are the two scenarios (and the mistake most people make)
Scenario #1 (Traditional cycle):
Bitcoin rallies, hits long-term resistance, and rolls into a deep correction.
In that world, Bitcoin could revisit the $50k–$60k zone…
and many altcoins get crushed 70%–90% (some don’t survive).
Scenario #2 (Super-cycle / extended expansion):
This doesn’t mean Bitcoin goes up forever.
It means the market shifts from blow-off tops + full resets to extended expansion phases.
Pullbacks still happen — but they’re more like higher-low corrections, not total collapses.
In this scenario, Bitcoin can push into the $140k–$160k zone during the expansion phase…
then “breathe” with healthy corrections instead of a multi-year wipeout.
The real risk right now isn’t bullish or bearish
The real risk is being positioned the wrong way.
• If this becomes an extended expansion and you exit too early… you miss the most important leg.
• If you assume “everything will moon” and overextend into high-risk junk… you can still get wrecked.
So the goal is not predictions.
The goal is flexibility + a system.
That’s exactly what I cover in today’s video.
Watch Today’s Video: Is The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Dead?
