As I sit down to write this, the Trump administration has massed fighter jets, bombers, and two carrier groups within striking distance of Iran. Whether or not President Donald Trump ends up taking military action, the Iranian regime has been weakened—by U.S. and Israeli strikes last June, by recent blows to Iranian proxy groups across the region, and by massive domestic protests last month. As Karim Sadjadpour put it in October, “For the first time in nearly four decades, Iran is on the cusp of a change of leadership—and maybe even of regime.” His essay, which considers what could happen in Iranian politics after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is ousted or dies (he is 86), is essential reading to understand the possibilities for Iran’s future, whether that change comes in days, months, or years.
Until next week, |
