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During his first press conference of the Iran war, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth explained that Operation Epic Fury is not a so-called regime change war. That may surprise many observers because the first salvos of the operation decapitated the regime. No, the war is about denying Iran’s nuclear ambitions. But we were told that America’s bombing runs in 2025 obliterated that nuclear program. America and Israel chose this moment to attack Iran because, since October 7, Iran has shown its military and intel weakness, and has become increasingly isolated in the region. Of course, Iran’s weakness could also just as easily be used as a reason not to attack them now, at a moment when the overall risk they present is relatively low. Trump has told Iran’s security forces to surrender, but it’s unclear that there’s anyone to surrender to. Trump told the Iranian people to rise up. But the attack comes after thousands of them were killed by the regime while doing just that. At different points over the weekend, we were told to expect this war to last days, weeks, months or some other amount of time, but that it definitely won’t be endless. We’ve been offered no such duration assurances when it comes to how long the contradictions will continue. Most administrations spend a lot of time justifying and explaining their strategies before taking the country to war. This administration isn’t giving clear explanations even after starting one. Maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. Our Contradicter in Chief ran on an agenda that called for an end to global interventions, and yet, “no president in the modern era has ordered more military strikes against as many different countries.” During the 12 day war, Iran was outed as more of a paper tiger than anyone in the Middle East imagined; one that had been fully infiltrated by foreign intelligence. The fall of the regime has seemed more likely than ever. Whether this is the right way to get rid of the regime, or whether Bibi, Trump, and Hegseth are the right guys to do it, is a different matter. Here’s what we know so far. The leaders of an evil and destabilizing regime behind much of the world’s terrorism have been eliminated and that is a great thing for the region and the world. Unless something worse follows. So let’s hope this is a so-called regime change war and not an endless, destructive quagmire that recent history suggests is a very real possibility. How will it turn out? Don’t ask me. And don’t ask the Trump administration, either.
+ “I hope this effort to topple the clerical regime in Tehran succeeds. It is a regime that murders its people, destabilizes its neighbors and has destroyed a great civilization. There is no single event that would do more to put the whole Middle East on a more decent, inclusive trajectory than the replacement of Tehran’s Islamic regime with a leadership focused exclusively on enabling the people of Iran to realize their full potential with a real voice in their own future. Second, this will not be easy, because this regime is deeply entrenched and is hardly going to be toppled from the air alone.” Thomas Friedman in the NYT(Gift Article): How to Think About Trump’s War With Iran. “This is the most plastic, unpredictable moment in the Middle East since the Iranian Revolution in 1979. Everything — and its opposite — is possible.”
+ The Atlantic (Gift Article): Hubris Without Idealism. “Today, it’s impossible not to feel happy for Iranians inside the country and overseas as they celebrate the deaths of their oppressors, above all that of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, whose rule destroyed the lives of so many people, especially young ones. But the surest way for worse to follow is to fail to believe that it can.”
+ WSJ (Gift Article): Trump’s Shifting Goals for Iran Complicate Military’s Mission.
+ Pentagon tells Congress no sign that Iran was going to attack US first.
+ “The American bombardment of Iran has been launched without explanation, without Congress, without even an attempt to build public support. Above all, it has been launched without a coherent strategy for the Iranian people, and without a plan to let them decide how to build a legitimate Iranian state.” Anne Applebaum in The Atlantic (Gift Article): Trump Has No Plan for the Iranian People.
+ “Trump is telling lies about the war that not only contradict one another, but contradict themselves internally. Is it about a nuclear program that doesn’t exist? Or is it about a regime change that we haven’t thought through? Or is it about an imaginary Iranian threat to elections?” Timothy Snyder: Losing the War on Truth.
+ U.S. Races to Accomplish Iran Mission Before Munitions Run Out.
+ What would a free Iran mean for the world?
+ A strike on a girls school may have killed as many as 175 people, at least four members of the American military have been killed, nine people in Beit Shamesh were among those killed in Israel by Iranian missiles, three US planes were shot down by Kuwaiti friendly fire, in addition to attacking Israel, Iran has fired missiles and drones at countries throughout the region, Hezbollah attacked Israel, and the war, for now, continues to spread. Here’s the latest from the NYT, Times of Israel, NBC, and CNN.
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The Hole World in Their Hands
“The Jackson Hole region has long been a refuge for the rich, but an explosion of new affluence has allowed a growing cadre of extraordinarily wealthy people to dominate both the local economy and Wyoming state politics. Teton County is not merely the richest county in the country, per capita, by far; it is a window into America’s near future, as the country enters a new gilded age, one in which millionaires are turning into billionaires overnight.” NYT (Gift Article) with a very on-point article for this moment in time. Welcome to Wyoming, the Frontier of America’s New Gilded Age.
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Control Altman Delete
“Across social media and the AI industry, people immediately began to challenge Altman’s claim. Why, they asked, would the Pentagon suddenly agree to these red lines when it had said — in no uncertain terms — that it would never do so? The answer, sources told The Verge, is that the Pentagon didn’t budge. OpenAI agreed to follow laws that have allowed for mass surveillance in the past, while insisting they protect its red lines.” The Verge (Gift Article): How OpenAI caved to the Pentagon on AI surveillance. (We’ve got the wrong people making the most important decisions.)
+ Anthropic said no to the Pentagon. Not coincidentally, they just overtook ChatGPT in the app store. As with many other political controversies, the American consumer is the last line of defense.
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Things That Go Bump in the Height
“Thanks to decades of such refinements, today’s jets may be the world’s most reliable machines. Flying in them is less likely to kill you than walking on staircases. It’s the sky that’s grown more unreliable. Fierce storms and erratic winds are increasingly common with climate change. But the rise in clear-air turbulence, often far from storms and undetectable by radar, is especially alarming.” The New Yorker: Buckle Up for Bumpier Skies.
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Extra, Extra
I Fought The Law and... “The Trump administration has decided to