I'm ABC global affairs editor Laura Tingle in Dubai. I'm giving you daily updates to help you quickly understand what's going on.
- The big picture: The election of a new hardline Supreme Leader in Iran has confirmed that Iran will not be the quick success for Donald Trump that Venezuela proved to be. But Iran too appears to have miscalculated: its attacks on Gulf states have not pressured Trump to withdraw, but threaten instead to bring them into the war against Iran.
- The economic fallout: The shockwaves from the impact of global access to oil and gas have continued to spread with the price of oil shooting above $US100 — a four-year high and one of the sharpest one-day rises in history — after at one point being as much as 25 to 30 per cent higher, with grave ramifications for the global economy.
- On the ground: Iranian strikes on neighbouring countries continued on Monday — in the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain. Iran has been particularly threatening energy infrastructure, including the massive Shaybah oil field and recovery plant in Saudi Arabia.
So, what's the fallout?
Some analysts see Donald Trump's decision to join Israel's attack on Iran as being highly motivated by the prospect of gaining control over Iran’s oil supplies, just as his incursion into Venezuela was driven heavily by wanting control over that country’s oil.
The ultimate game here, they say, is to regain some strategic superiority over China which remains heavily dependent on oil from the Gulf.
Certainly, that is the way Iran sees the game, with its foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei saying the attacks are aimed “at partitioning our country to take illegal possession of our oil riches”.
Linked to this, among Western analysts, is a suspicion that when Trump floats the idea that there may be a limited use of US "boots on the ground" in Iran, he is not talking about a general invasion but that his administration is considering seizing Kharg Island, a massive terminal that processes around 90 per cent of Iran’s crude oil exports.
LISTEN: This morning's ABC News Daily looks at who the new supreme leader is, and what this appointment means for the war