Washington, DC

1. Trump’s coalition building stalls
2. Illinois super PAC onslaught
3. New voter ID details
4. Oil futures future
5. China trip delay?
6. New name for NOTUS

Meta ▲ 3% on reports of AI-related layoffs.

Trump’s coalition building stalls

After lobbying global allies this weekend to send military assistance to the Strait of Hormuz, President Donald Trump said today, “We don’t need anybody,” suggesting his campaign was a test of loyalty. No country has publicly committed to the effort; the United Kingdom and the European Union are reportedly in talks, while Germany, Japan, and Australia have said they do not plan to send vessels. “This is not our war,” said Germany’s defense minister. Earlier in the day, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that the administration is OK with Chinese, Indian, and Iranian tankers moving through the strait despite US sanctions on Iranian oil: “For now, we’re fine with that.” He left open the possibility of an extension on a waiver on some sanctions for Russian oil, saying the plan is “to go back” to current policy once the conflict ends.

Illinois swamped by new super PAC wave

Primaries in Illinois on Tuesday are showcasing the biggest trend of the 2026 election cycle so far: the rise of the bizarro-world super PAC, Semafor’s David Weigel reports from Chicago. Cash from the crypto and AI industries, as well as AIPAC, is giving candidates branding that’s often sharply at odds with their records. State Sen. Robert Peters, for one, got dubbed a “corporate pawn” by a corporate-funded super PAC. But some Democrats are successfully campaigning against the tactics. One progressive candidate, Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, told Semafor that he neutralized it by simply explaining why an AIPAC affiliate got involved for his opponent. “Here’s why they’re giving the money: because Laura Fine promises to offer a blank check of military aid to Israel no matter what they do in Gaza or the West Bank, and I won’t do that,” Biss said.

Schmitt adds more Trump priorities to voter ID bill

Sen. Eric Schmitt, R-Mo., is introducing a new version of his party’s voter ID and citizenship verification bill after consulting with Trump. The new version adds rules on mail-in voting and restrictions on gender-related surgeries for children, while also barring biological men from competing in women’s sports, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports. In addition to requiring proof of citizenship and photo ID for voting, it would prohibit states from conducting federal elections by “universal vote-by-mail.” It would add specific new penalties for the “genital and bodily mutilation” or “chemical castration” of children, according to the text. The Missouri Republican said earlier on Monday his proposals are “widely popular”; the Senate is expected to take up a House-passed version of the legislation on Tuesday and later vote to amend it.

Bessent says Treasury hasn’t traded oil futures, but skeptics remain

The Treasury Department has not intervened in derivatives markets by trading futures to lower oil prices, Bessent said today. “That rumor’s in the market” but “we haven’t done that,” he told CNBC. He added he was “not sure under what authority or auspices” officials would be able to do so. Still, some traders were skeptical, given recent oil price swings. (One hedge fund manager, Pierre Andurand, commented, “Sure…“) It may behoove the administration to not push back more forcefully: Though exchanges have warned the unprecedented move would jeopardize confidence in markets, investors are actively hunting for any sign officials might take additional steps to lower oil prices, and the price of crude edged up after Bessent’s comments. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum recently confirmed reports that members of the administration had discussed the idea, though he warned it would “require enormous amounts of capital.”

— Eleanor Mueller

Trump-Xi meeting delay may relieve China

If Trump delays his meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping — a possibility — Beijing may be relieved, given unease about the optics of feting him while he drops bombs on Iran, not to mention its annoyance over the visit’s scattershot planning. “They have been frustrated by the lack of preparation for the summit, and yet they promised to deliver a grandiose state visit that is likely to produce few deliverables,” said the German Marshall Fund’s Bonnie Glaser. The politics of a China visit in March would also be tricky for Trump, who may want to avoid photo ops while troops are in harm’s way. Trump’s top priority is “to ensure the continued success of this operation” against Iran, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Monday. Regardless, he’s unlikely to get China’s help with the Strait of Hormuz.

— Andy Browne and Morgan Chalfant

NOTUS to double staff in challenge to Washington Post

A DC publication wants to compete with The Washington Post and revive one of the city’s historic media rivalries in the process. As Semafor’s Max Tani first reported, NOTUS founder Robert Allbritton announced to staff that the publication will double its 50-person staff and be renamed. Already, NOTUS has poached a handful of top Post reporters, including Jeff Stein and Dana Milbank. Allbritton wrote in a memo that he and his employees are “building the next great Washington newsroom — a team of reporters and editors who will cover government, politics, policy, local news and D.C. sports with the power of The Washington Post in the 1970s, the punch of Politico in the 2010s and the audience focus required to build a sustainable news organization in 2026.”

This April, Satish Reddy, Chairman of Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, will join global leaders at Semafor World Economy — the premier convening for the world’s top executives — to sit down with Semafor editors for conversations on the forces shaping global markets, emerging technologies, and geopolitics. See the first lineup of speakers here.

Iran

• A White House official said the administration knows that “oil prices are going to continue to rise but there isn’t a lot it can do at the moment.” —WSJ
• The war with Iran is eroding the US’ military readiness in the Indo-Pacific, two political scientists write for WaPo.
• Israel expanded its ground offensive against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
• An Iranian drone strike hit Dubai’s airport.

White House

• White House chief of staff Susie Wiles has been diagnosed with breast cancer but will stay on the job.
• Sen. Markwayne Mullin, Trump’s nominee to replace Kristi Noem as DHS secretary, bought shares in Chevron, the only major US oil company in Venezuela, five days before the US attacked the country. — NYT

Politics

• Israel’s popularity is declining among American voters, particularly with Democrats. — NBC News
• Newt Gingrich suggested the US use “thermonuclear detonations” to build a canal that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.
• Speaker Mike Johnson had an uncomfortable moment when Trump asked him to speak about Rep. Neal Dunn’s, R-Fla., terminal illness, which Johnson said “wasn’t public.”

Business

• Imprisoned crypto tycoon Sam Bankman-Fried’s campaign for a presidential pardon isn’t going well. — Politico

Influencers

• Jeffrey Epstein helped fuel the rise of wellness influencer Peter Attia. — Politico
• At an event in New Delhi, a journalist read MAGA influencer Lara Loomer deleted tweets in which she’d disparaged Indians.

Immigration

• The Trump administration’s rule banning licenses for some immigrant truck drivers takes effect.
• The Supreme Court will hear arguments over the Trump administration’s efforts to end legal protections for migrants fleeing war and natural disaster.

Health

• A federal judge paused Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s changes to national immunization policy.

— Maine Gov. Janet Mills.