What matters in U.S. and global markets today

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Morning Bid U.S.

Morning Bid U.S.

A Reuters Open Interest newsletter

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

 

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large for Finance and Markets

Despite all the grandstanding on both sides of the Middle East conflict, there’s little change in the situation for energy or financial markets to take solace from. The U.S. claims it’s negotiating a 15-point ceasefire plan, while Iran insists no talks are planned and that it’s merely reviewing the U.S. proposal.

All the while, fighting continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, with oil prices pushing back up and energy analysts upgrading their full-year crude price estimates further.

I’ll get into that and more below.

But first, check out my latest column on the worrying signs in U.S. Treasury markets and why they matter for broader markets.

And catch today’s episode of the Morning Bid podcast. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.

 
 

Data refreshes every time you open this email. For more U.S. market news, click here. Please send any feedback to morningbid@thomsonreuters.com.

 

Today's Market Minute

  • U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran was desperate to make a deal to end the war, contradicting the Iranian foreign minister who said his country was reviewing a U.S. proposal but had no intention of holding talks.
  • At least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity has been halted following Ukrainian drone attacks, a disputed attack on a major pipeline and the seizure of tankers, according to Reuters calculations.
  • A Los Angeles jury on Wednesday found Meta and Alphabet's Google negligent for designing social media platforms that are harmful to young people, in a verdict that will serve ‌as a bellwether for similar cases.
  • The EU may be forced to scale back its flagship climate policies as the Iran war drives up energy prices, with lasting consequences for the bloc's energy strategy, writes ROI Energy Columnist Ron Bousso.
  • The Iran‑sparked energy shock is fuelling real inflation worries - but markets may be overshooting on bets for rate hikes, argues ROI Markets Columnist Jamie McGeever.
 

Reality check

After falling around 2% on Wednesday, both Brent and WTI crude futures ticked back up on Thursday as traders digested the latest mixed signals from the U.S. and Iran. The benchmarks are now hovering around $105 and $93 per barrel, respectively.

Global shares were unsteady as hopes for an imminent ceasefire faded. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei lost 0.7%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell by 1.7% and South Korea’s KOSPI index was down 2.7%.

Europe's STOXX 600 fell on Thursday morning, while U.S. stock futures were also down before the bell.

Gold fell back too, once again failing to register any safety bid and instead shedding some of the recent gains it owed to prospects for a resolution to the energy shock.

Treasury markets were on edge after another series of poor debt auctions and mounting longer-term inflation risks, with Wednesday’s import price data already showing a much bigger jump in February than forecast before the war.

Elsewhere, it was announced that President Trump has re-scheduled his hotly anticipated trip to China for mid-May. Meantime, Alphabet and Meta lost a U.S. court case over whether the design of their social media platforms harm children.

In technology news, Arm Holdings stock jumped over 16% on Wednesday after predicting that its new in-house data-center chip would generate roughly $15 billion in annual revenue in five years. The chip, which is geared toward powering “agentic” AI, marks a departure for Arm, which has previously licensed chip designs to giants such as Nvidia.

With that, onto today's column.

 
 

Iran oil shock sets US Treasury seismograph twitching

The Iran oil shock has upended rate forecasts and roiled U.S. Treasury markets - driving volatility to its highest in nearly a year and forcing selling that is taking a serious toll on liquidity. The risk is that the tremors spread further.

One of the key attractions of the U.S. Treasury debt market is its sheer scale. At $30 trillion, it is deep enough for the world's biggest ‌buyers and sellers to move in and out without shifting the price - a rare quality in any asset market.

 

 

Graphics are produced by Reuters.

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