Washington, DC

1. Trump’s Iran deadline
2. Economic ripples
3. DHS funding debate
4. Greene replacement watch
5. Trump v. NATO
6. Artemis heads home

PDB: Tucker Carlson tears into Trump

Vance arrives in Budapest … Trump has dinner with Sergio Gor … Taiwan opposition leader visits China

Trump faces decision point on Iran

We’re hours away from President Donald Trump’s 8 pm deadline for Iran to make a deal, and so far nothing substantial has come to fruition that would allow Tehran to avoid his promised attacks. If that holds, the question is: What comes next? Iran could be “taken out in one night,” Trump suggested on Monday, while also saying he couldn’t “tell” whether the war is winding down or ramping up. He also repeated his weekend threats to attack key civilian infrastructure, hinting at a plan to decimate “every bridge” and put every power plant in the country “out of business.” At the same time, Trump posited that Iran would “like to make a deal.” Everyone, including Iran, is waiting to see Trump’s next move. And there’s always the chance he delays his attack plans, especially as the threats weigh on markets.

— Shelby Talcott

Economy hinges on Trump’s next move

Trump’s moves today carry enormous implications for the global economy, which is already feeling shocks from the Iran war as it enters its sixth week. The war has disrupted global commerce, pushing up energy prices and rattling global stocks. Trump’s renewed threats to strike civilian targets caused oil prices to rise even higher on Monday, and big hedge fund players saw significant losses in March, Bloomberg reported. The US and Israel have drawn up a list of targets that would specifically hit Iran’s economy hard, and the Pentagon is looking for Iranian energy sites to strike that provide fuel and power to both civilians and the military, to avoid allegations of war crimes, as Politico reported. But such an escalation would prolong the war — and cause financial ripple effects at home. The US will release data showcasing the war’s impact on inflation later this week.

GOP debates party-line immigration funding

Republicans are debating how far to go on their forthcoming party-line spending bill to fund Trump’s immigration enforcement for the rest of his presidency. Some Republican senators want to fund the entire Department of Homeland Security for three years to avoid another shutdown after this 53-day-and-counting lapse; however, a narrower bill focusing on ICE and CBP would be easier to pass. The Senate Budget Committee hasn’t settled on a target spending number, according to GOP sources. Chair Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said on Monday he wants to give ICE and CBP “all they need for three to 10 years.” He plans to meet with the White House on Friday. GOP leaders “want to keep it as narrow as possible,” said Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa. “It does tend to broaden out as we try and get more members on board.”

— Burgess Everett and Nicholas Wu

Trump pick likely to succeed Greene

Voters in Wisconsin and northwest Georgia will decide two high-profile elections today, though neither is getting much investment from the major parties. Wisconsin Democrats hope to flip a seat on the state Supreme Court, which would give liberals a 5-2 supermajority. Democratic Party-backed candidate Chris Taylor has heavily outspent conservative Maria Lazar, and GOP donors haven’t swooped in to help as Elon Musk did last year. In Georgia, voters will fill the safely Republican House seat vacated by ex-Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. Trump-backed nominee Clayton Fuller is the clear favorite in a district the president last won by 37 points; Democrat Shawn Harris, who lost to Greene in 2024, has worked to make the race a more competitive referendum on the Iran war and cost of living. In Wisconsin, Alaska, Oklahoma, and Missouri, there are also heated races for major school boards.

— David Weigel

Republican voters back Trump on NATO

It’s not just Trump who’s souring on NATO — Republican voters also increasingly see little upside in the alliance for the US. Sixty percent of Republican and Republican-leaning independents say the US receives few or no benefits from NATO membership, according to Pew Research Center polling; that’s the first time a majority in the GOP have said so. It suggests Trump’s attacks on the alliance are sticking with his voters, if not with congressional Republicans. The US president reprised his criticism ahead of a Wednesday meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, dismissing the alliance as a “paper tiger” that refused to satisfy his demands on the Iran war and Greenland. “It all began with, you want to know the truth, Greenland,” Trump told reporters on Monday. “They don’t want to give it to us, and I said, ‘bye-bye.’”

Artemis II heads back to Earth

The Artemis II crew is heading back to Earth after reaching the far side of the moon on Monday — the farthest any human has ever traveled from our planet. The crew saw parts of the moon’s surface never before seen on their flyby — during which they were out of contact with mission control for about 40 minutes — and requested permission to name two previously unknown craters. They called one Integrity, after the Orion-class capsule they traveled in, and the other one Carroll, after the mission commander Reid Wiseman’s wife, who died of cancer in 2020. “We saw sights that no human has ever seen, not even Apollo,” Wiseman told Trump during a call Monday, “and that was amazing for us.” Trump congratulated the crew, calling them “modern-day pioneers.”

Blindspot: California and CIA

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: California last week dropped the final charge against anti-abortion activist David Daleiden; the case emerged out of an investigation started under Kamala Harris when she was the state’s attorney general.

What the Right isn’t reading: The Trump administration discontinued the public CIA World Factbook.

Oura, the smart ring favored by executives, finance bros, and Silicon Valley longevity-maxxers, is a big, lucrative business. On this week’s episode of Compound Interest, presented by Amazon Business, Liz and Rohan dive into the economics of that business with CEO Tom Hale, uncovering a surprising key demographic driving Oura’s growth, the financialization of better sleep, and the company’s public market aspirations.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Rep. Jim Himes, D-Conn., the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, indicated he will vote in favor of a clean reauthorization of key warrantless surveillance powers under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act later this month.

Axios: “The president is the most bloodthirsty, like a mad dog,” one US official said, describing President Trump as among the most hawkish in the administration on Iran.

Playbook: Meanwhile, the business world is again floating the prospect of “another TACO Tuesday” as Trump’s Iran deadline looms.

White House

• President Trump’s budget request asks to cut 9,400 TSA workers, among other line items.
• Trump’s open musing about seizing Iran’s oil is partly motivated by a desire to increase US energy dominance to gain an edge over China amid trade talks. — Bloomberg

Congress

• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is scheduled to sit down on May 6 with the House Oversight Committee as part of its investigation into Jeffrey Epstein, according to a person familiar with the situation.
• Rep. Yassamin Ansari, D-Ariz., is introducing impeachment articles against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

Outside the Beltway

• Despite her landslide win, new Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger is barely polling above water. — WaPo
• Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a bill granting state leaders the ability to label groups as domestic terror organizations.

Business

• Amazon struck a deal with the US Postal Service that will see the e-commerce giant cut USPS deliveries by 20%, far less than expected. — Reuters

Economy

• Regulators have pursued some of the gold companies hawked by right-wing influencers for alleged fraud and misrepresentation. — FT

National Security

• The US Marshals last year deputized Elon Musk’s private security team as federal agents even though they hadn’t gone through required training. — NBC

Immigration

• ICE has arrested nearly 20,000 people in DC, Maryland, and Virginia thus far during the second Trump administration. — WaPo