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Matt Davis — Need2Know Chedditor

News You Need2Know

What’s the stock market up to, eh?*

$SPX ( ▲ 0.62% )   $DJI ( ▲ 0.58% )   $NDX ( ▲ 0.83% )  

Companies mentioned in today’s newsletter

$STZ ( ▲ 8.53% )   $CRWV ( ▲ 3.49% )   $META ( ▲ 2.61% )   $SMPL ( ▼ 18.11% )   $POLYMARKET ( 0.0% )   $AAL ( ▼ 0.35% )   $UAL ( ▲ 1.42% )   $JBLU ( ▼ 2.18% )   $DAL ( ▼ 0.37% )   $LUV ( ▼ 0.47% )   $AMZN ( ▲ 5.61% )  

Stocks near all-time highs for the second day in a row

U.S. stocks swung higher Thursday as investors navigated the delicate balance between ceasefire optimism and persistent oil market concerns following the Iran conflict.

The S&P 500 $SPX ( ▲ 0.62% ) climbed 0.7% in afternoon trading after erasing early losses, now sitting just 2.1% below its all-time January high.

Oil prices remain the wild card. U.S. crude rose 1.4% to $95.78 per barrel after briefly nearing $103, with Brent crude adding 0.1% to $94.87. The Strait of Hormuz remains central to President Trump's demands of Iran.

Macquarie strategist Thierry Wizman told the Associated Press that upward pressure on oil prices may be "here to stay for a while" given how far apart U.S. and Iranian demands remain.

Constellation Brands  $STZ ( ▲ 8.53% ) jumped 7.2% on strong quarterly results, though the Modelo and Robert Mondavi parent cited "limited near-term visibility" for pulling future forecasts. CoreWeave  $CRWV ( ▲ 3.49% ) rallied 5.4% after announcing a $21 billion AI cloud deal with Meta Platforms $META ( ▲ 2.61% ) , which rose 3.4%. Simply Good Foods  $SMPL ( ▼ 18.11% ) plunged 18.2% after disappointing revenue because people are sacrificing health food spends as they tighten their belts; CEO Joe Scalzo called results "unsatisfactory."

Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US–Iran ceasefire

How do you turn $72,000 into $200,000 in a single afternoon? Apparently, you create a brand-new Polymarket account and bet big on a ceasefire nobody saw coming, apart, of course, from you.

An analysis of blockchain data by the AP reveals that at least 50 freshly created accounts placed substantial "Yes" bets on a U.S.–Iran ceasefire Tuesday — hours before Trump announced the deal. The president warned earlier that day that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran didn't comply with his demands.

One wallet, created just 12 minutes before Trump's Truth Social post, walked away with an estimated $48,500 profit.

Rep. Blake Moore (R-Utah) didn't mince words: "It's highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it's much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public."

This isn't the first time. Similar patterns emerged before the capture of Venezuela's Maduro and other Iran-related military actions.

"We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets," said Georgia State professor Todd Phillips.

Amazingly, Polymarket $POLYMARKET ( 0.0% ) declined to comment.

Song of the Day: Randall King, ‘Thinkin’ Bout Drinkin’’

Here’s a self-released honky-tonk heartbreaker that feels destined for jukebox immortality, by West Texas-native Randall King.

American Airlines hikes bag fees — hitting basic economy flyers hardest

Packing light just became even more important for budget-conscious travelers.

American Airlines $AAL ( ▼ 0.35% ) announced Thursday it's raising checked bag fees, with basic economy passengers bearing the brunt of the increase. The move follows similar hikes from United Airlines $UAL ( ▲ 1.42% ) , JetBlue Airways $JBLU ( ▼ 2.18% ) Delta Air Lines $DAL ( ▼ 0.37% ) , and Southwest Airlines $LUV ( ▼ 0.47% ) over the past two weeks.

Starting with tickets booked Thursday, American will charge $50 for a first checked bag at the airport on domestic and short-haul international flights — a $10 increase. A second bag will run you $60. Savvy travelers can save $5 by checking bags through the airline's website or app.