High-powered CEOs are fretting about the energy shock from the Iran conflict but investors seem to have their heads in the sand. An ingrained ‘buy the dip’ reaction could turn sharply if the flood of earnings reports over the next few weeks is overshadowed by war and inflation fears.

After the initial surprise of the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, markets appeared to warm to the idea. President Donald Trump signaled Tehran was keen on negotiations, suggesting that pressure on Iran’s economy might tell quickly. Oil prices headed back below $100 a barrel, while stocks climbed.

Executives aren’t quite so sanguine. Goldman Sachs kicked off earnings season with a 19% rise in quarterly profit, but shares still fell after CEO David Solomon warned that fighting in the Middle East could weigh on initial public offerings and therefore investment-banking activity. Elsewhere, luxury giant LVMH said the war dragged on its organic growth while Australia’s Qantas Airways said its near-term jet fuel bill would be up to 32% more than previously anticipated.

Optimists might suggest such concerns will fade once a peace is reached and corporations are just taking the chance to get their excuses in early. But that depends on a workable U.S.-Iran agreement which still seems murky. Saudi Arabia is worried—it is pushing for an end to the American blockade due to fears Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a chokepoint for the Saudis’ own oil exports, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Investors are putting a lot of faith in strong earnings growth and central banks being willing to shrug off what is the largest monthly increase in energy prices in at least 25 years, according to UBS. Executives hoping for a sympathetic hearing for underwhelming numbers this earnings season are likely to receive short shrift and might have to brace for a stock tumble.

—Adam Clark

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With his naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, President Donald Trump is now trying to choke off global oil demand in hopes of forcing Iran to make a deal. The U.S. previously wanted the strait open to traffic to ease pressure on oil prices.

• Trump’s reversal signals the U.S. might be trying to squeeze the Iranian economy, which is heavily dependent on oil revenue. It is essentially a siege, designed to drain Iran of resources, but the strategy takes time. AeroDynamic Advisory’s Richard Aboulafia doesn’t believe it will work as intended.

• Two ships have turned back from the U.S. Navy’s blockade of the strait, ship-tracking service Kpler said Monday. That’s after 14 vessels were able to make it through on both Saturday and Sunday. International and U.S. oil futures benchmarks settled below $100.

• Iran is getting military support from China and Russia, notes Vertical Research Partners analyst Rob Stallard. That could help Iran extend the conflict, which is now more than 40 days old. The conflict is boosting shares of American defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics.

• Investors will hear more about the war, military spending, and Iran outlooks when defense contractors report earnings in the coming weeks. Capital Alpha Partners analyst Byron Callan expects executives to be optimistic given Trump’s recent $1.5 trillion 2027 defense budget request and replacement demand for missiles and drones. 

What’s Next: RTX and Northrop report earnings on April 21. Boeing reports on April 22. Lockheed Martin follows on April 23. General Dynamics and L3Harris report results on April 29 and 30, respectively. All are expected to produce year-over-year sales growth.

—Al Root and Anita Hamilton

Paramount Skydance successfully put off rival bidder Netflix in its bid to buy Warner Bros Discovery, but now it has to contend with hundreds of celebrities and film and television professionals, who have signed a letter opposing further consolidation in the media industry.

• The letter has more than 1,000 signatures, including Hollywood A-list actors Emma Thompson, Kristen Stewart, Noah Wylie, and Joaquin Phoenix. They say consolidation in the industry is hurting both consumers and creative professionals by eroding competition and creating fewer opportunities, less choice, and higher costs.

• Several lawmakers also have spoken out in opposition to the deal, alleging it will negatively affect consumers. Paramount struck the deal in February to pay $31 a share in cash for Warner Bros. Netflix abandoned its bid that month, rather than engage in a bidding war.

• Warner Bros. stock is currently below that cash offer, at around $27.40 a share. Proxy advisory firm Glass Lewis says the difference between the two prices suggests that investors see meaningful risk in the deal’s regulatory clearances and ability to close on current terms. It recommends voting for the merger.

• Paramount said Monday that it remains “deeply committed to talent,” adding that the merger “strengthens both consumer choice and competition, creating greater opportunities for creators, audiences and the communities they live and work in.” Warner Bros. didn’t respond to a request for comment.

What’s Next: The letter on Monday complains about a steep drop in the number of films being produced and released, and a narrowing of the types of stories that get financed and distributed, which it blames on media consolidation. Warner Bros. shareholders will vote on the proposed merger on April 23.

—Angela Palumbo and Janet H. Cho

The spring real estate season is getting off to a slow start. Not only did existing home sales slump in March versus the previous month, the National Association of Realtors has slashed its 2026 sales forecast. Persistently elevated mortgage interest rates—expected to remain near 6.5%—are cutting potential buyers.

• Existing home sales fell 3.6% in March. At 3.98 million, it’s the lowest seasonally adjusted level in nine months. The NAR now expects existing-home sales to rise only 4% this year, from an earlier estimate of 14%. The prior forecast was based on lower mortgage rates.

• Average home prices rose 1.4% to a record $408,800, because inventory remains limited, NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said. Consumer confidence has been dented because of the economy, and a sluggish job market is holding back buyers, especially among lower-income renters.

• Existing-home sales have struggled for three straight years, as have home builders’ sales and margins. Mortgage rates have risen significantly amid the war in Iran, to 6.51% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage last Wednesday, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. 

• Evercore analyst Stephan Kim on Monday lowered earnings estimates for many companies related to building new homes, but upgraded his ratings for the PulteGroup and luxury builder Toll Brothers, saying they are best positioned in a volatile macroeconomic environment.

What’s Next: NAR’s pending home sales report for March, which measures homes that are under contract but not yet closed, comes out April 21. Analysts tracked by FactSet foresee a 1% rise from February’s levels.

—Shaina Mishkin and Janet H. Cho

Travelers face sky-high costs for a summer getaway, especially if they are flying to their destinations. U.S. airlines are facing billions of dollars in extra fuel costs in the months ahead as a result of the Iran war. Unfortunately, their plan depends on travelers picking up part of that cost.

• Airfares jumped 15% in March from the prior year, according to the latest consumer price index data. Fares rose 2.7% over the month in March, after a 1.4% increase in February. Delta Air Lines, American, Southwest, and United have all raised their first checked bag fee by $10 to offset surging jet fuel costs.

• During its earnings last week, Delta Air Lines said fuel costs in the current quarter would increase by more than $2 billion. That’s with a projected fuel price of $4.30 a gallon, up from $2.62 in the first quarter. But travel demand is holding up, giving carriers confidence in raising prices.

• Delta CEO Ed Bastian said premium consumers are growing immune to the headlines and not putting off their plans to travel despite them. Raymond James analyst Savanthi Syth noted that the carrier continues to see broad-based demand strength despite multiple fare/fee increases.

• It could be months before jet fuel supplies recover, International Air Transport Association CEO Willie Walsh said last week. Disruptions to refining capacity don’t correct quickly. President Donald Trump’s blockade in the Strait of Hormuz adds another element of uncertainty to the energy outlook.

What’s Next: The U.S. airline industry could face an annual fuel-cost headwind of close to $40 billion, Deutsche Bank analysts warned before the current U.S.-Iran cease-fire was reached.

—Callum Keown

—Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer and Rupert Steiner