Washington, DC

1. Israel-Lebanon ceasefire
2. Lankford predicts Warsh confirmation
3. War powers margin narrows
4. Zeldin’s MAHA tightrope
5. Risky energy

Today at Semafor World Economy — Former Biden energy and national security adviser Amos Hochstein: “Regardless of how the war ends, Iran will have control of the Strait of Hormuz. Once you get that genie out of the bottle, it doesn’t come back in.”

Trump announces Israel-Lebanon ceasefire

President Donald Trump announced a series of constructive developments in peace negotiations today: Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire; the US and Iran may reengage in talks this weekend; and the two sides are “very close to making a deal” to end the war, he said. Still, the US is prepared to resume fighting should talks fail, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said at a briefing this morning. Hegseth also announced the military had expanded the US blockade to all ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, not just those coming and going from Iranian ports, adding pressure on Tehran. The war continues to poll poorly with the American public, and members of Trump’s party are aware. Republican Sen. Todd Young, R-Ind., said in an interview at Semafor World Economy this morning it is “time to wrap it as quickly as we can.”

Republican senator predicts Warsh confirmation without Powell firing

Sen. James Lankford, R.-Okla., expects a dull ending to the Trump-Jerome Powell saga. “No, I don’t think he’s going to be fired,” Lankford said of Powell in an interview at Semafor World Economy. Trump renewed his threat yesterday to fire Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve if he doesn’t step down at the end of his term on May 15. But Powell has said he’ll stay on until the Department of Justice completes an inquiry into renovations at the board’s headquarters. Sen. Thom Tillis, R.-N.C., wants the probe dropped before the Senate Banking Committee votes on Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nominee to replace Powell. “The investigation will come to a conclusion in the next couple of weeks,” Lankford explained, an outcome that would clear the way for Warsh’s confirmation. Committee Democrats, meanwhile, made a final push today to delay Warsh’s hearings.

Democrats come up one vote short on war powers

House Democrats came up one vote short on an Iran war powers vote today. It spells trouble ahead for House Republicans. The measure to rein in Trump’s war in Iran failed on a 214-213 vote, with one Republican, Ohio Rep. Warren Davidson, voting present. One Republican, Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, voted with almost every Democrat for the measure. Democratic leaders flipped almost all of the Democrats who voted against the measure previously except for Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine. Republicans have signaled they could back a war powers resolution if boots are put on the ground in Iran, or if the war goes on past the 60-day threshold outlined in the War Powers Act. But Trump’s announcement of an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire today might signal the conflict is nearing a resolution. The House also again punted a vote on reauthorizing surveillance powers as GOP leaders work to round up support.

— Nicholas Wu

Zeldin points MAHA to Congress on ‘forever chemicals’

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin urged supporters of MAHA — Make America Healthy Again — to work with Congress on issues such as PFAS, or so-called forever chemicals. “There are people to work with in Congress on both sides of the aisle, leaders who are very well aware of the issue,” Zeldin said in an interview at Semafor World Economy. Under Zeldin’s leadership, the EPA has taken action to reduce regulatory pressure on businesses, including extending a PFAS compliance deadline by two years. But Zeldin has pulled back some on PFAS approvals, bowing to pressure from MAHA. This week The Washington Post reported that the EPA is delaying approvals for uses of forever chemicals because Zeldin is concerned about angering members of the movement.

The US gets riskier for energy investors

Energy policy vacillation in the US is spooking investors and leaving the country less prepared to compete in the global economy. US oil and gas production has been effective at insulating from impacts of the Strait of Hormuz closure, global leaders have said at Semafor World Economy. But dirt-cheap electricity — or dollars per unit of AI processing power — is the most important metric for future competitiveness. China’s edge is huge. So how can the US catch up? The data center race looks like a powerful force to drive more investment into the energy system. But a lot is waiting for the mess of US energy bureaucracy to get sorted out: Permits, tax credits, and technologies that fall in or out of favor in successive administrations and endless legal battles amount to dangerous barriers to investment.

Most CEOs have not woken up to the fact that technology is as important as their balance sheet, IBM Chairman and CEO Arvind Krishna says in the latest episode of The CEO Signal. The first technologist to lead the company in its 115-year history unpacks how he approaches high-stakes decision-making in moments of rapid technological change — including the initially controversial acquisition of Red Hat that he thinks landed him his current role.

Krishna makes the case for why CEOs need to place bold bets, even when the payoff won’t be quick. And he cautions his fellow CEOs not to wait to start working out what quantum computing will mean for their companies. “You’d better start thinking about it now,” he says.

Listen to the latest episode of The CEO Signal now.

Congress

• The House passed a bipartisan measure that would reinstate temporary legal protections for Haitian immigrants living in the US, with 11 Republican members voting in favor.
• The Senate narrowly passed a measure that paves the way for mining near the Boundary Waters wilderness area in Minnesota, prompting Democrats to signal similar action repealing fossil fuel leases should they take power in Congress.

White House

• Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, her top aides, and members of her family sent personal text messages to young staff that are now under investigation by the department’s inspector general. — NYT
• A federal judge set new limits on President Trump’s White House ballroom, saying construction could proceed only on the underground portion of the project.

World

• At least 18 people died in Ukraine in Russia’s deadliest attack of the year. — WSJ

Health

• President Trump nominated Erica Schwartz to serve as director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr., secretary of Health and Human Services, said he’s overhauling a group of external experts at HHS that decides coverage requirements under the Affordable Care Act.

Law Enforcement

• Former Virginia Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax fatally shot his wife and himself, according to Fairfax County Police.
• The DOJ is investigating sexual assault allegations against former Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif. — NOTUS

President v. Pope

• Pope Leo XIV condemned the use of religion for military or political gain in a post on X and reiterated a frequent line in a speech in Cameroon: “Blessed are the peacemakers.”
• President Trump told journalists that he has “nothing against the Pope … I have a right to disagree with the Pope,” adding that if Leo would “allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon, he cannot do that.”

Immigration

• An ICE agent accused of pointing a gun at a motorist and a passenger during the federal immigration surge in Minnesota earlier this year was charged by a state prosecutor with felony second-degree assault with a dangerous weapon.

— Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., in response to whether she’d meet King Charles when he and Queen Camilla visit the US later this month.

Laura McGann, editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor, and Morgan Chalfant, Washington briefing editor

Graph Massara and Lauren Morganbesser, copy editors

Contact our reporters:

Burgess Everett, Eleanor Mueller, Shelby Talcott, Nicholas Wu, David Weigel