Washington, DC

1. China deals?
2. China-Iran ties
3. Ballroom roadblock
4. Warsh advances
5. Dem redistricting losses
6. Nebraska, W. Va. primaries
7. US pols study Carney

PDB: Kari Lake’s next gig

Hegseth, Caine testify on Capitol Hill … US releases consumer price index … UK’s Starmer faces growing calls to resign

GOP senators optimistic on China deals

Republican senators who recently visited China returned optimistic that President Donald Trump can land specific aerospace and agricultural deals after he arrives in Beijing Wednesday, Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller and Burgess Everett report. “If there’s a headline I hope to see this week coming out of Beijing, it would be what we talked [about] this last week — and that is Boeing, beef and beans,” Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., said. Boosting Chinese purchases of US soybeans (and grain sorghum) would be “very important to agriculture at a time when prices are not sufficient to cover the costs,” Sen. Jerry Moran, R-Kan., told Semafor. Daines and Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb., also said they were looking for officials to agree on renewing US beef producers’ licenses to export to China. “We were well-received [by Chinese officials] and certainly … they seem to be open to opportunities,” Moran said.

Iran looms over Trump’s China trip

Trump may be headed to China later today, but Iran is top of mind. And China’s economic relationship with Iran could mean a cooler reception for Trump in Beijing than he faced nine years ago, particularly after his administration sanctioned a dozen entities this week to crack down on Iranian oil sales to China. All eyes are on the fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran, after Trump expressed his dissatisfaction with Iran’s latest peace proposal and described the truce as being on “life support.” Still, Trump, who intends to press Chinese President Xi Jinping to scale back Beijing’s support for Iran, is expressing optimism. The US president said Monday evening that he’s “looking forward” to the visit and promised “great things” for both countries.

— Shelby Talcott

Ballroom funding hits Republican turbulence

Trump’s $1 billion in White House security funding for his ballroom project must survive both a political and procedural gauntlet over the next two weeks for the Senate to approve it, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports. Senate Democrats argue that the money violates the strict budget reconciliation process, which could lead to it being stripped out of a $70 billion immigration enforcement funding bill. Then there’s the question of whether GOP leaders can get at least 50 of 53 GOP senators to support it. “I have a feeling that it won’t be in the bill or it won’t pass the Byrd test,” said Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., referring to the bill’s procedural viability. Secret Service Director Sean Curran will discuss the money during today’s Republican lunch. “The one billion dollars? I have questions,” said one GOP senator otherwise supportive of the project.

Senate advances Warsh’s nomination

Senators are on track to confirm Trump’s chosen Federal Reserve chair later this week following a surprisingly bipartisan vote last night. After no Democrat voted to approve Kevin Warsh’s nomination in committee, Democratic Sens. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania and Chris Coons of Delaware voted with 47 Republicans to advance the pick on the Senate floor. Though Fetterman had previously indicated his support for Warsh, Coons — who did not return a request for comment — had not. Warsh will take the helm of a central bank wary of Trump’s calls for lower interest rates as the president’s Iran war and trade agenda continue driving prices up. Jerome Powell, whose term as chair ends Friday, has said he plans to stay at the Fed as a governor until the administration’s probe of its renovations is “well and truly over.”

— Eleanor Mueller

Dem redistricting losses accumulate

The Democratic Party is racking up losses in the redistricting fight. Virginia Democrats are preparing to accept their court-imposed reality after their gerrymandered map was tossed by the state Supreme Court. Party leaders have asked the Supreme Court to step in, but it’s not clear they’ll get any assistance from the top federal court, especially after the state’s elections commissioner called May 12 — today — a “point of no return” to prepare for the primary in previous court filings. The state party has been telling candidates how to move forward with petitions and the ballot process under the pre-gerrymandered map, according to a person familiar with the situation. And in another blow to Democrats, the Supreme Court on Monday evening allowed Alabama to use a new congressional map that eliminates one of two majority-Black districts ahead of the midterms.

— Nicholas Wu

Nebraska Dems in high-stakes primaries

Primaries will wrap up in Nebraska and West Virginia today, with both parties closely watching how Democrats vote in Omaha. That city makes up most of the state’s 2nd Congressional District, the only seat carried by Kamala Harris in 2024 where a GOP incumbent is retiring. Six Democrats are competing for the nomination, with party activist Denise Powell and state Sen. John Cavanaugh trouncing the field in fundraising. Powell’s allies have warned that a Cavanaugh victory could harm Democrats’ 2028 chances. The race for US Senate could be impacted, too. Democrat Cindy Burbank, if she wins, plans to end her campaign and give independent candidate Dan Osborn a clear shot at Sen. Pete Ricketts, R-Neb.; Bill Forbes, a conservative activist running as a Democrat, is seen as a spoiler who would stay in the race.

— David Weigel

US progressives take a lesson from Canada

There’s some good news for Democrats: Somebody has figured out how to defeat the populist right and build a progressive governing majority. The bad news: He did all that in Canada. American and European progressives gathered recently in Toronto to hear about Prime Minister Mark Carney’s electoral success and warnings from everywhere else, Semafor’s David Weigel reports. The annual gathering, organized by the Center for American Progress and the progressive think tank Canada 2020, featured bilateral meetings and a closed-press session with former President Barack Obama. It included a warning to the international left from Carney, who won in 2025 and then convinced members of the opposition to switch parties by abandoning some left-wing climate policies and pivoting to economic growth.

For decades, litigation was a cost of doing business. Now, it’s becoming Wall Street’s newest asset class. Chris Bogart spent years at Cravath before founding Burford Capital, now the world’s largest litigation finance firm, turning corporate legal disputes into investable opportunities with billions at stake. In this episode of Compound Interest, Liz and Rohan explore the financialization of corporate fights, Burford’s $16 billion dispute with Argentina, and what it would take to finally let private equity buy a piece of Big Law.

Blindspot: Detainees and WHCD shooting

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: President Trump said that his administration helped secure the release of Polish and Moldovan prisoners detained by Belarus and Russia.

What the Right isn’t reading: One in four Americans said they think last month’s White House Correspondents’ Dinner shooting was staged, according to a poll reported by The Washington Post.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: “Even if you can get past the policy and justify it, the timing and optics are really bad,” said Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., on the $1 billion ballroom security funding request.

Playbook: A poll by Democratic-leaning group Impact Research found FBI Director Kash Patel’s popularity tanking, with his net favorability at -11 overall.

Axios: The Iran war has seen the US export a record amount of oil and other petroleum products.

White House

• President Trump tapped former Navy SEAL Cameron Hamilton to serve as head of FEMA, after he was fired as acting director last year. He also tapped Kari Lake to be US ambassador to Jamaica and Doug Mastriano to be ambassador to Slovakia.

• Trump opted to delay a planned suspension of tariff-rate quotas for beef, and is working on “executive actions” on beef prices instead. — Politico
• Trump will receive his annual medical and dental checkups on May 26, the White House announced.

Congress