Good evening. Tina Peters, perhaps the most prominent 2020 election denier still behind bars, had her sentence commuted by Colorado’s Democratic governor. The Trump administration is considering the establishment of a $1.7 billion fund to compensate allies investigated by the Justice Department under President Biden. A New Jersey congressman has been mysteriously absent from Capitol Hill. And tonight, we’ll take you to Kentucky, where a major test of President Trump’s influence is unfolding.
Will the Iran war backlash save an anti-Trump Republican?
Last week, On Politics previewed the ways President Trump’s influence and popularity in Republican primary races would be tested in the month of May. We’re about to start getting some answers. Tomorrow is Primary Day in Louisiana, where Senator Bill Cassidy, who voted for an impeachment conviction of Trump after the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021, will face his party’s voters. Trump is supporting Representative Julia Letlow, one of Cassidy’s opponents. After that comes Kentucky, home to the most expensive congressional primary on record, as the libertarian-leaning Representative Thomas Massie tries to fight off the Trump-backed Ed Gallrein. That Tuesday race is especially interesting because Massie is a rare Republican critic of Trump — and he has been especially outspoken against Trump’s foreign interventions, particularly the war with Iran. My colleague Jennifer Medina just got back from Kentucky, where she looked at how the war is shaping this fascinating House race. Tonight, she’s joining us with fresh details from the ground. Our conversation has been edited and condensed. Jenny, thank you so much for joining. Typically, most Americans don’t vote on foreign policy. How much did the war with Iran — and the related rise in gas prices at home — seem to be motivating the voters you met in Kentucky? Hi Katie, thanks for having me! You’re right, of course, that foreign policy rarely moves voters. What’s different here is that Massie has made opposition to foreign aid and intervention one of his central positions. And his opposition to the war has prompted a lot of anger from President Trump. It was fascinating to hear from many Massie supporters who view that as a sign of his strength and integrity. But even more than that, so many voters are furious about the way the war is driving up costs, especially for gas. I was struck by some of the criticism of Trump from Republican voters in your story. That’s quite rare to see. Did you detect a brewing backlash to Trump on the right, or were most voters not going that far? The criticism of Trump was really striking to hear from these voters, who absolutely consider themselves conservatives. “What happened to ‘America First’?” was a refrain I heard. Several told me they thought the president had abandoned one of his core campaign promises to get out of foreign wars and focus on problems in our own country — especially the economy. I spoke to a few who said they regretted voting for Trump. There is a backlash is some quarters, no doubt, but it’s hard to know how much that grows. Many voters remain fiercely loyal to Trump, even if they think he is making a mistake on Iran. I would never ask a fellow political reporter to make predictions about the outcome of a race — but was it possible to gauge momentum at all? How did it feel on the ground? I would never make a prediction! The polls have consistently suggested that this race is extremely tight. I will say that most Massie voters sounded quite optimistic — certainly more so than the congressman himself. There is just a lot of loyalty to him. His vocal criticism of Trump got him into the toughest battle of his career, but his image as an iconoclast may help him in the district. This is a place where people are extremely proud of their independence. Aspects of this race have gotten quite ugly. In one weird and dramatic twist, William Paul, the son of Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, drunkenly told a New York congressman that if Massie lost, it would be the fault of “you Jews.” (The congressman, Mike Lawler, who is not Jewish, condemned the younger Paul’s antisemitic tirade, which unfolded at a Washington bar and was reported by the outlet NOTUS.) How are issues related to antisemitism and debates about Israel playing out in this race? The debate over Israel has consumed the Democratic Party over the last few years, but it is also playing out in very real ways in this Republican primary. Massie has long opposed providing more aid to Israel and has been an outspoken critic of the country’s actions since the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, attacks. Several outside groups, including the Republican Jewish Coalition and a pro-Israel super PAC, have spent millions. That has brought its own backlash. One television advertisement attacking Ed Gallrein said he was supported by “weirdos” and showed an image of Paul Singer, a donor who is Jewish, with a rainbow Star of David behind him. I also saw hints of the tensions over Israel, and pro-Israel groups like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, among voters. When I went to hear Massie speak to a group of Republicans in Boone County, I saw a guy in his 20s wearing a shirt emblazoned “Defund AIPAC.” What surprised you most about your time on the ground? I was struck by how engaged and nuanced so many voters were. There was no question that they thought about the war mostly in terms of the price of gas. At the same time, many of these voters are still broadly supportive of the president. And yet: Even some of those voters told me they planned to vote for Massie. It’s another reminder that voters are endlessly complicated and races are often unpredictable. It also made me think that it’s impossible to know where the Republican base goes once Trump leaves office.
QUOTE OF THE DAY “It costs a fortune, but don’t they look great?”That was Donald Trump in 2010, describing re-covering the high-end chairs designed by the grandfather of Graham Platner, now the presumptive Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine. Platner has a complicated life story when it comes to class, my colleague Lisa Lerer and I found. He has built his political image off his history as an oysterman, a combat veteran and a harbor master from a tiny Maine town. But he has also enjoyed the privileges that come from being the son of a Dartmouth College-educated lawyer, the grandson of a famed Connecticut architect and a graduate of a private high school. Got a tip? IN ONE GRAPHIC
The (very) long list of potential 2028 contendersThe shadow campaign for the next presidential election is in full swing, and the field could be unusually large. My colleague Reid Epstein takes an in-depth look at who might run.
ONE LAST THING Taco Tuesday in TexasEating food in public can be politically perilous. Just ask Bill de Blasio about his experience eating pizza with a fork and knife, or Rick Perry about the pictures of him wolfing down a corn dog. Or James Talarico, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas, after he ordered two potato, egg and cheese tacos in Austin alongside former President Barack Obama. The order — “totally legit,” according to one taco podcaster — set off a lively internet debate about whether it was too boring or a culinary sin to ask for breakfast tacos around 2 p.m. (Personally, as someone who lived briefly in Austin, I say it is always a good time for a breakfast taco.) When it comes to tacos, my colleague Lauren McGaughy writes, Texans love a good food fight. Taylor Robinson contributed reporting. Read past editions of the newsletter here. If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.
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