Markets have been in a “belief mode” for the past few months that could continue Friday with oil prices and Treasury yields dropping this week amid optimism for a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran and a successful IPO of Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

President Donald Trump, just hours after threatening to attack Iran’s Khrag Island—a key energy delivery installation—said a deal to end the conflict had been personally approved by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei with a signing ceremony due to be announced shortly.

Iran has yet to approve the text, and remains unwilling to commit to a full agreement, but reports suggest the deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end sanctions on the sale of Iranian crude. 

Oil prices fell sharply following the news, with Brent futures extending their weekly slump to around 8.3% and trading well below the $90 mark in early Friday dealing. Big declines were seen in Treasury yields, as well.

That creates a solid backdrop for the SpaceX market debut, which priced late Thursday at $135 a share with a group valuation of $1.77 billion. 

Early indications suggest the listing could rise as much as 35% by the end of the session, with a $2 trillion market cap firmly in sight. 

All that said, stocks are still in negative territory for the month, and facing renewed concerns about interest-rate pressures ahead of the first Federal Reserve meeting under new Chairman Kevin Warsh next week, as well as fading appetite for the tech and chip trade that has powered markets higher since the end of March.

But an Iran deal, which normalizes energy flows, steadies oil markets, and possibly removes one of the market’s key risks into the summer months, feels strong enough to entice bullish belief once again.

—Martin Baccardax

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It’s a massive day for equity markets, with rocket and artificial intelligence company SpaceX’s trading debut. The largest IPO in history has made CEO Elon Musk a trillionaire, and the stock’s early trading is also likely to create and destroy billions of dollars of value in other parts of the market.

• Space-related stocks could move following the IPO, with SpaceX a benchmark for the whole industry. AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab have racked up triple-digit returns over the past 12 months, but both are trading at a hefty premium to SpaceX—putting them at risk of a slump.

• Telecom stocks could also struggle due to fears that Starlink could disrupt the sector. Shares of Verizon Communications, AT&T, and T-Mobile US have all traded lower in recent days.

• If the stock rallies straight away, that could trigger a series of short squeezes, which is when investors who are betting against a stock have to buy back shares to cover their losses. AST has short interests in the 20% range. That’s about three to four times the short interest for an average stock in the Russell 1000. Rocket Lab’s short interest is about 6%, close to the average.

What’s Next: Investors better hope the IPO goes well, as a weak trading debut could put the entire AI boom at risk. SpaceX is the first money-losing AI company to go public, with OpenAI and Anthropic expected to follow suit later this year.

—Al Root and George Glover

Private equity is piling into the AI data center buildout. KKR has joined forces with Nvidia, Vistra, and the Kuwait Investment Authority to create a $10 billion artificial-intelligence infrastructure company called Helix Digital Infrastructure, with Nvidia as a cornerstone member.

• Vistra, a nuclear and natural gas energy provider, will act as the preferred power provider. KKR said Thursday that Helix was created to deliver integrated infrastructure at the speed and scale required for hyperscalers to meet rising AI demand.

• Earlier this week, Broadcom, Apollo Global Management, and Blackstone said they planned to deploy Broadcom chips and other hardware across fleets of AI data centers, starting with an Apollo-led $35 billion investment to facilitate Anthropic’s previously-announced capacity expansion. 

• “We are positioned to meet the financial and operational demands of the AI era,” KKR Co-CEOs Joe Bae and Scott Nuttall said. Helix aims to invest in and manage AI assets, including hyperscaler data center development, fiber, and connectivity, The Wall Street Journal reported.

• Globally, private equity and venture investments in utilities are up more than 50% from a year ago, the Journal reported, citing S&P Global Market Intelligence. Investing in the first quarter is close to 2025’s $64.6 billion total.

What’s Next: Former Amazon Web Services CEO Adam Selipsky is leading Helix, and Waldemar Szlezak, KKR’s global head of digital infrastructure, will serve as Helix’s chief investment officer. It will take additional institutional investors after founding commitments are closed.

—Kit Norton

Adobe beat second-quarter expectations backed by strong demand for its AI products but skepticism about software as a service has crept into investors’ thinking, and the departure of another top executive didn’t help the stock, which fell 5% in after-hours trading and hit a 52-week low.

• The enterprise software firm reported adjusted earnings of $5.96 a share on revenue of $6.62 billion. CEO Shantanu Narayen said the record revenue reflected strong AI demand across its customer groups. It also raised its 2026 outlook.

• The company now expects earnings to be between $24.35 and $24.45 a share on revenue of $26.5 billion to $26.6 billion. Both ranges beat Wall Street’s current fiscal 2026 estimates.

• CFO Dan Durn is leaving the company on June 15 to become CFO of chips-and-networking company Marvell Technology. A software executive leaving to work for a chip company feeds Wall Street’s downbeat narrative around software stocks.

• Adobe is trying to alleviate fears around AI disruption by launching its own AI products, including an AI agent platform called CX Enterprise, which is designed to help companies boost sales, improve customer experience, and quicken time-intensive tasks.

What’s Next: Durn’s departure follows Narayen’s recent decision to depart after serving as Adobe’s CEO for more than 18 years. Third Bridge’s Dylan Koehler wrote this week that the key question for Adobe is whether it can realistically position itself as the core orchestration layer for AI-driven enterprise creativity.

—Angela Palumbo

Although the ongoing Iran war, soaring jet-fuel prices, higher gasoline prices, and the World Cup tournament are all making summer vacations more expensive, there’s one notable exception—Europe. Domestic U.S. destinations are getting pricier, but travel to and within Europe is looking surprisingly affordable. 

• Advance purchase trans-Atlantic fares to Europe declined 15% year over year for Friday, June 19, falling for the second consecutive week, Deutsche Bank’s latest pricing analysis of the 500 busiest domestic and international routes found. Fares to Mexico, the only other region where prices dropped, fell 1.9%.

• Flights from Dallas, New York, and Atlanta flights to London Heathrow and from Atlanta to Paris all saw double-digit price declines. In contrast, domestic fares for United Airlines more than doubled, American Airlines prices rose 41%, and JetBlue Airways fares climbed 30% year over year.

• U.S.-Europe fares in the second quarter are down 17% from last year, based on data showing the lowest published fares, Raymond James analyst Savanthi Syth noted at the end of May. That doesn’t include premium demand, the “driving force” on longer-haul international routes.

• Although first-quarter U.S. hotel revenue per available room was the highest on record, said CoStar, hotel room rates in popular European destinations are considerably lower this year. Room rates are down 15% a night in Madrid, down 10% in Florence, down 7% in Venice, and down 5% in Rome.

What’s Next: Airfare prices remain “relatively resilient thanks to strong travel demand,” said Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors. Airlines passing along their higher fuel prices without sacrificing traffic “supports revenue growth” and positions well-managed carriers to expand margins and profitability.

—Callum Keown and Janet H. Cho

The 2026 National Basketball Association Finals between the San Antonio Spurs and the New York Knicks have been the most-watched championship series ever, averaging more than 19.1 million viewers over the first three games, ABC and ESPN said. San Antonio’s Frost Bank Center hosts Game 5 on Saturday.

• The New York Knicks lead the San Antonio Spurs 3-1 in the best-of-seven series. The only NBA team to come back from a 3-1 deficit to win the NBA Championship is the LeBron James-led Cleveland Cavaliers, over the Golden State Warriors in 2016.