Good evening. Tonight we’ll look at how President Trump is — or isn’t — leading his party into the midterms.
Trump’s haphazard midterm leadership
In Iowa, President Trump’s choice for governor was defeated in a Republican primary. In Washington, Trump faced a revolt over his choice for acting director of national intelligence, while a handful of lawmakers from his party are feeling newly emboldened to buck him. In the Middle East, the war between the United States and Iran grinded on as confusion persisted about a possible peace deal. Americans, unhappy with high gas prices, remain sour on the conflict — and on Trump. Trump has had a rough start to the month of June, after a spring in which he won crushing victories over Republicans who have crossed him and watched his party gain an edge in the national redistricting war. This week, he addressed the latest spike in prices, and gave a remark that doubled as a gift to Democratic ad makers. “I love it, the numbers were great,” Trump told reporters. “I love the inflation.” Cue the (private) Republican face-palms. “I don’t think there’s much optimism,” said Rob Stutzman, a veteran Republican strategist, asked about the mood among his fellow G.O.P. consultants. “Campaigns are going to adapt the best they can, but it’s a party without anyone, without the leader, on message.” It was only the latest Trump gaffe on affordability and the midterms. A month ago, he said “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation” in response to a question about whether Americans’ economic troubles made him want to make a deal to end the war with Iran. Later that month, he said, “I don’t care about the midterms.” Trump won in significant part because of his promises to lower the cost of living — but prices are still high, and his recent comments aren’t helping Republican candidates who already face a broad array of challenges in navigating the political landscape. As a result, swing-voting Americans — many of whom are keenly conscious of their painful financial situations — don’t exactly seem to have warm feelings toward Trump or the Republican Party. Recent polls have repeatedly shown that Americans favor Democratic candidates over Republican ones. Trump’s approval rating is hovering in the 30s, a bad sign for the G.O.P. given how important that number tends to be in determining the fate of a president’s party in midterm elections. But for many Republican candidates, especially those who have to deal with primaries, it remains politically dangerous to acknowledge any daylight with the president or to be perceived as criticizing him, including over his assessment of the economy. And as Democrats learned the hard way in 2024, voters don’t care about various positive economic indicators — and certainly don’t want to hear about them — if their own lives still feel too expensive. “He doesn’t care what families are going through right now, isn’t even aware of it, makes light of it, and families are struggling,” said Representative Suzan DelBene of Washington, the chair of the House Democratic campaign arm. “They promised to lower costs on Day 1. It has been a huge broken promise, and we absolutely are continuing to remind folks of that.” Of course, the midterm elections are still months away, and the political environment could well change. Trump has hinted that a signing ceremony for a potential deal toward ending the war could happen as soon as this weekend, and has suggested that inflation will drop when the war concludes. “I don’t think Democrats have cracked the code on becoming a popular party again,” Stutzman told me. “I still think they’re deeply unpopular.” But right now, he said, “it’s incredibly perilous for Republicans.”
QUOTE OF THE DAY ‘Turn that truck around’That was William Hensley, a former election mail specialist at the U.S. Postal Service, describing what mail carriers could effectively be told if the service enacts a rule that would allow it to refuse to deliver mail ballots in states that don’t turn over voter rolls to the federal government. My colleagues Adam Sella and Nick Corasaniti have more. Got a tip? IN ONE GRAPHIC
Over the last year, Republicans have created a structural advantage on the House map by redrawing districts to carve out more safe red territory. And each time a state redistricts, or another rejects a new map, the Cook Political Report’s ratings for which party has the upper hand continue to seesaw. My colleague Ashley Wu breaks down the tug of war that led to the current ratings. ONE LAST THING
They came to see the clawDuring a media walk-through before the Ultimate Fighting Championship cage match at the White House on Sunday in celebration of Trump’s 80th birthday, my colleague Shawn McCreesh reported on the event’s focal point: the hulking claw towering over the South Lawn. One right-wing commentator gushed, “It’s literally Vegas.” A historian Shawn interviewed said there had never been anything like it: “Trump’s turning the White House into some kind of high-energy drink, Hulk Hogan commercial.” Taylor Robinson contributed reporting. Read past editions of the newsletter here. If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.
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