TL;DR: Meta is reportedly working on a standalone prediction markets app in a bid to get in on the bet-on-everything craze that started with Polymarket and Kalshi, according to a New York Times report. It’s the kind of move we’ve seen from Meta before—chasing (or re-chasing) what was popularized by others—but comes as the company faces lawsuits accusing it of trying to addict users.

What happened: Internally called Arena, the smartphone app reportedly uses a video game-like points system instead of money—though real funds could come into play later. It’s a gamified attempt to lasso new users at a moment when prediction market fever is everywhere. (Though Meta’s tried its hand at pursuing this particular market before, launching an app called Forecast in 2020 that shut down two years later.)

Insiders described Arena as “experimental but a top priority” for the company, per the NYT, but noted that it’s possible the app might never be released.

Copying homework: Arriving late is par for the course for Meta, which has shown a pattern of jumping on trends after competitors prove there’s a market for it. A brief recap of all the times Meta made us say, “Wait, haven’t we seen this before?”:

• Instagram Stories (2016), which made main grids everywhere something of a relic, was released long after Snapchat first came out with the feature in 2013.
• Facebook Dating (2019) joined in on the “swipe right to match” habit already popularized by Tinder starting in 2012.
• Reels (2020) was Meta’s answer to TikTok, which got us glued to short-form videos (at least ones that are longer than six seconds).
• Threads (2023) launched about half a year after Musk bought Twitter—which led to an exodus of users who didn’t like the new management and wanted an alternative. (That lasted about five seconds.)
• RIP. There were also many lesser-known Meta clones of platforms like Substack, Clubhouse, Slack, and even Nextdoor—all of which are no longer with us.

Is this even a good idea?: While Meta probably has the resources to launch a real rival to Kalshi and Polymarket, the timing of the Arena news comes right as Meta battles a slew of lawsuits around how addictive its apps are for children. And it’s already facing some pointed criticism from politicians.

Bottom line: With Arena (not yet) involving real money, Meta is showing that its top priority is developing gamified platforms that can dominate people’s attention—and hopefully expanding an empire of apps that around 3.6 billion people already use every day. —WK

Also at Meta…

• The company is reportedly being pressured to submit its AI models—the latest of which was released in April—to the “voluntary” review process President Donald Trump’s AI safety executive order recently established.
• Mark Zuckerberg reveals his “perfect lunch” and why he doesn’t regret changing the company’s name in a new Q&A.

• The first atomic-level look at a DNA repair enzyme was captured—and it could improve chemotherapy. In a new study published in Nature Communications, researchers mapped the structure of the enzyme SMUG1—a human enzyme that patrols DNA and snips out faulty bases before they harden into permanent mutations—for the first time. SMUG1 removes a common chemo drug, which means it can blunt the treatment’s effect—so the new structures could help researchers design drugs that block the enzyme and potentially make the cancer treatment more effective. Bonus flex: The team also produced the first combined neutron and X-ray structure of a DNA-binding protein, which provided details X-rays alone usually miss.
• Surgeons could soon repair nerve damage with this new goo. A French startup is betting its light-activated biopolymer could replace and supplement medical stitches, typically a delicate and traumatic process. Here’s how it works: The biodegradable goo attaches to tissue when exposed to light and acts like a splint, holding the nerves in place while the tissue heals. In a 12-patient, finger-nerve study, every participant who completed the trial and follow-up regained full function with no reported pain at one year—a 100% hit rate, compared to just over 80% with other techniques. With a new funding round, the MIT spinout is planning to enroll 200 patients in a US trial to help in hernia treatment recovery. —LC

There’s no catchy Sesame Street skit to explain the number $1,100,000,000,000 (Musk’s net worth at various points over the past 13 days, though he’s apparently fallen on “harder times” as of yesterday)—so someone built a website called What’s Elon Worth? that helps us mere wage earners grasp how rich the world’s first trillionaire is. The comparisons range from the mundane to the mind-bending. As of publication time:

• If you have a net worth of $10,000, buying a $5 coffee is like Musk buying a $514 million cup of joe.
• Conversely, the SpaceX founder copping a $100 million superyacht is like you (with your $10,000 net worth) spending about 97 cents—an amount that won’t even buy you a can of Arizona.
• If you had made $1 million every day since 1 AD, you’d still be about $290 billion poorer than Musk. On the bright side, you’ve lived a very long, prosperous life.
• Musk could buy 2.5 new iPhones for every American (presumably for full retail price) or repurchase the social media site formerly known as Twitter 23 times over.

Take the exact math—which constantly updates as his wealth ticks up or down—with a grain of salt (it’s an estimate based on his public holdings). Just remember that in the time it took you to read this, Musk’s fortune probably grew by another $10 million. —WK

Chaos Brewing Meter: /5