It’s a voyage into the unknown for investors this week before the comforting familiarity of earnings season returns.

The tech sector, and chip stocks in particular, have endured a volatile ride recently that may well continue in the days ahead with a raft of “firsts.”

SpaceX will join the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 index on Tuesday after slumping 20% from its closing high following its record-breaking IPO. In theory that should generate billions of dollars of passive buying by funds tracking the index. But it’s no guarantee. New entrants have had a tough start to life in the Nasdaq 100 lately—CoreWeave, Nebius, and Rocket Lab all fell more than 15% in their first week on the index at the end of June.

Micron’s South Korean rival SK Hynix will begin trading in the U.S. on Friday as it looks to capitalize on the memory-chip boom by raising around $30 billion to boost production. 

The stock has been just as volatile as Micron, if not more, in recent weeks. SK Hynix shares have moved by a double-digit percentage four times–two up, two down–in the past two trading weeks. That’s one more than Micron.

Its debut will depend on how much appetite U.S. investors have for an alternative way to play the boom–or on which way memory sentiment is blowing that day.

Federal Reserve minutes may be slightly less glamorous but they could be just as significant for the stock market. Again, it’s a trip into the unknown for investors. The first set to be released under new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh could well be slimmed down but insights into officials’ discussions will be key as markets grapple with the likelihood of a rate hike in the months ahead.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has a summit in Turkey that President Trump is attending this week, which is also fertile ground for geopolitical uncertainty. Oil and Defense stocks will be in focus.

If the stock market can survive all of that, the safer ground of earnings season awaits with Delta Air Lines on Friday before the big banks next week. But even then, there are no guarantees.

—Callum Keown

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OpenAI may be thinking about delaying its initial public offering until next year, but that risks the window for new listings shutting before it can hit the market given the market’s growing wariness for other recent IPOs, according to Deutsche Bank’s Adrian Cox. 

• In a recent note, Cox argued the ChatGPT maker and its artificial intelligence rival Anthropic should proceed with their IPOs, citing the need to strike while the iron is hot. He warned there was no guarantee of enough investor appetite to absorb hundreds of billions of dollars of new stock issues.

• A possible delay for OpenAI was reported by the New York Times. OpenAI hasn’t officially named its underwriters since its IPO filing is still confidential. Cox said in addition to raising more funding, IPOs from OpenAI and Claude owner Anthropic would help boost transparency about their financials.

• Most importantly, stock listings for the two companies will give investors true yardsticks for the AI industry. Part of the anxiety about an AI bubble forming is the lack of pure-play companies that are public and investible, Cox said. “A listed OpenAI or Anthropic would fill a huge gap.”

SpaceX, which owns xAI, launched the biggest IPO ever last month, popping 19% on its opening day but now down 30% from its high, which could explain OpenAI’s caution. Other recent IPOs Cerebras Systems and Fervo have pulled back from their first day closing prices, too.

What’s Next: Rapid growth and soaring valuations mean the AI boom is facing a moment of truth, Cox said, juxtaposed with massive capital expenditure, a public backlash, and the challenges of real-life adoption. The question is whether OpenAI and Anthropic can squeeze their way through the IPO window before it shuts.

—Paul R. La Monica

SpaceX’s initial public offering on June 12 pushed founder and CEO Elon Musk into rarefied trillionaire status, solidifying his place as the wealthiest person in the world—by far. It would take adding the wealth of the next five richest people in the world to surpass Musk, who had $1.2 trillion as of June 30.

• A 13.4% gain in Alphabet shares through the first half of the year contributed to co-founder Larry Page maintaining his second place ranking among the world’s multibillionaires, with a net worth of $301 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index as of June 30.

• Sergey Brin, Page’s fellow co-founder, moved up to third place from second at the end of the first quarter, with a net worth of $280 billion. Each owns about 6% of Alphabet, Bloomberg said. Brin leapfrogged Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, who slipped to fourth with a net worth of $262 billion.

• Bezos derives 8.2% of his net worth from shares of Amazon, which were up 5.2% through June 30. The most striking change among the top 10 was the emergence of Michael Dell in fifth place. The founder and CEO of Dell Technologies reached $217 billion as of June 30.

• Dell’s net worth was $140 billion at the start of the year, when he ranked 11th. Meanwhile, Oracle founder and CEO Larry Ellison’s net worth fell nearly $45 billion, putting him sixth, and Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg shed $32 billion in net worth for seventh place.

What’s Next: Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates continues to slide, falling to 19th with a net worth of $104 billion. Gates slipped from the top 10 richest individuals in the world as of the third quarter of 2024 after he said he would give away $200 billion of his current and future wealth to philanthropy over the next 20 years.

—Abby Schultz

Sticker shock in the grocery aisles is no surprise. Inflation has been creeping up since February, but shoppers’ wallets will feel a lot lighter after buying the hamburger, hot dogs, buns, and even the barbecue sauce these days.

• The American Farm Bureau Federation puts the price tag to feed 10 people at a barbecue at $73.82, or $7.38 a person. That is up 9.4% from a year ago, according to Datasembly. Beef prices are up 17% from a year ago. Barbecue sauce costs 13% more.

• Part of the problem is cattle herds are much smaller, and the U.S. is importing more and more beef. America’s beef import volume has risen 86% since 2021, according to MarketWatch. At the same time, beef prices have climbed 56%. 

• Prices for tomatoes and lettuce have climbed 32% and 24.9% in a year, respectively, according to government data. The Iran war has been a driver of higher food prices, economists tell Barron’s. It has boosted farming and transportation expenses, especially for perishables that need refrigeration.

• There are some exceptions. Chicken prices are down 0.8%, and cheese prices are down 0.9%. Recent prices for chicken breasts averaged about $3.58 a pound, less than half the price of a pound of ground beef, according to the Century Foundation and Groundwork Collaborative report.  

What’s Next: Ariane Curtis, senior North American economist at Capital Economics, tells Barron’s that there are a number of factors that will keep food prices elevated for now. Gasoline and diesel prices are coming down but the lag for food prices to fall is longer.

—Molly Bordoff

The banana-yellow minions chattered their way to the top of the weekend holiday box office, but fell short of delivering triple-digit millions in projected ticket sales.

• Minions & Monsters, produced by Illumination and distributed by Universal Pictures, brought in an estimated $36.4 million over Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, and $61.4 million in the five days since its July 1 opening, according to Rentrak. It sold another $85 million internationally—grossing $159.9 million worldwide in its first weekend.

• Walt Disney and Pixar Animation Studios’ Toy Story 5 came in second with $31 million in domestic ticket sales in its third weekend. Angel Studios’ Young Washington, a PG-13-rated historical drama about George Washington before the Revolutionary War, came in third, selling $20.8 million in its first weekend.

• All releases generated an estimated $121.3 million domestically this weekend, down about 23% from last year’s July Fourth weekend. That number was $156.7 million.

• Industry observers have said audiences are more interested in original storytelling rather than franchise movies. The Minions have now starred in seven movies, including the four Despicable Me titles, in the past 11 years. The five Toy Story movies, in comparison, have been released over 31 years.

What’s Next: Disney’s live-action Moana opens on Friday. Universal Pictures’ The Odyssey, directed by Christopher Nolan and the first film shot entirely with 70mm film cameras, opens July 17. Sony Pictures’ Spider-Man: Brand New Day opens on July 31.

—Janet Cho

—Newsletter edited by Mel Gray, Patrick O’Donnell, Rupert Steiner