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The Morning Risk Report: Trump Says Ceasefire With Iran Is Over After Revoking Waiver for Tehran to Sell Oil
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By David Smagalla | Dow Jones Risk Journal
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Good morning. President Trump said Wednesday he believed his ceasefire deal with Iran is over, following another round of attacks by Tehran on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices jumped after Trump’s comments. On Tuesday, the Trump administration pounded sites along Iran’s coast and blocked its ability to sell oil legally.
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Stalled diplomacy: The president’s remarks were the starkest sign yet that diplomacy with Iran has stalled under the preliminary peace agreement he signed in mid-June. Trump stopped short of saying the U.S. would restart the war, however, and said he would let talks continue if the parties were willing. “To me, I think it’s over, I don’t want to deal with them anymore,” Trump told reporters at a NATO summit in Ankara.
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The strikes: The U.S. military said it hit more than 80 targets primarily along Iran’s coast, and Iran responded with strikes of its own. Explosions were reported in Sirik, Qeshm and Bandar Abbas, sites in or near the strait, according to Iranian media. The strikes targeted air defense, coastal surveillance, surface-to-air and antiship cruise-missile sites, as well as drone-launch sites and port facilities, a senior U.S. official said.
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License pulled: The strikes came shortly after the Trump administration revoked a license allowing Iran to sell oil on the open market, eliminating the primary economic benefit for Tehran as part of an interim peace deal with the U.S. and threatening to unravel the agreement after days of skirmishes in the Strait of Hormuz.
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Why the license was revoked: The Treasury Department said the June 21 temporary license granted to Iran after several months of war would no longer apply, a reprimand coming hours after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired missiles and drones at ships near the strategic waterway Tuesday. The Treasury allowed for a grace period until July 17 for transactions already authorized under the license.
Also: Iran’s Attacks on Ships Betray Its Concern Over Losing Its Grip on Hormuz
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Content from our sponsor: Deloitte
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The Connected Retail Store: Embed Signals Into Streamlined Operations
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To take advantage of the next evolution in AI, retailers should integrate data and operations to create a more connected and adaptive operating model. Read More
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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Ankara, Turkey, on Tuesday ahead of a NATO leaders' summit. Photo: Umit Bektas/Reuters
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Lawmakers to press Bessent on Russia sanctions bill on sidelines of NATO summit.
A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers is planning to lobby for passage of long-stalled legislation to impose new sanctions on Russia during a meeting with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on the sidelines of the annual NATO summit.
What they planned to do: The lawmakers said they are set to meet with Bessent on Tuesday night at a dinner hosted by Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey. The legislation, originally co-sponsored by Sens. Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.) and Richard Blumenthal (D., Conn.), allows the president to impose sanctions and tariffs on countries that do business with Russia, including any nation that buys Russian oil and uranium.
Bill stalled: While the bill has wide bipartisan support, it has languished in Congress amid resistance from the White House, which has sought to weaken some of the legislation’s language to give the president more latitude to negotiate with Moscow over Ukraine peace talks.
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European Union outlines action plan for AI and cybersecurity.
The European Union has set out what it calls an “action plan” for artificial intelligence and cybersecurity, reports Risk Journal’s Yusuf Khan, amid growing concerns new technologies will lead to increased attacks on European infrastructure and security (free link).
The EU’s legislative arm on Tuesday said it was establishing an EU capacity to assess AI models before they are released, in a bid to both strengthen its development of AI and defend against attacks on the bloc. The move is part of a wider EU effort to ensure AI’s growth doesn’t negatively affect the wider society.
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A new law in Illinois requires tech companies to disclose a range of artificial intelligence incidents and possible issues with their models, including potential misuse in cyberattacks, or even the technology being used for weapons-building, Risk Journal reports (free link).
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The U.K.’s financial watchdog is warning that artificial intelligence could lead to more instances of financial crime if regulatory frameworks don’t evolve to counter the threats (free link).
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A group of Democratic lawmakers is seeking information from Cantor Fitzgerald about how the firm may have benefited on a deal from its ties with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
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China said Wednesday that it has found “security backdoor vulnerabilities” in Anthropic’s popular Claude Code, stepping up tensions in the race with the U.S. for artificial-intelligence supremacy.
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Getty Images has officially called off its merger with Shutterstock, about a week after the deal was dealt a blow by a U.K. regulator.
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Apple lost an appeal at Europe’s general court challenging a EU decision to classify its iOS operating system and App Store as services that need to be brought to heel under the bloc’s landmark tech antitrust rulebook.
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The U.K. has given a New Zealand marine insurer that was sanctioned for allegedly providing cover to shadow-fleet tankers shipping Russian and Iranian oil three months to terminate or settle all its pre-existing insurance and reinsurance contracts (free link).
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Prince Harry lost his lawsuit against the publisher of the Daily Mail over allegations of unlawful behavior and press intrusion, the latest twist in his yearslong battle with the British tabloids.
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Ukrainian soldiers recently operated a drone targeting Russian positions along the front line. Photo: Evgeniy Maloletka/Associated Press
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There’s a new way of war, but is it evolution or revolution?
New technologies, including drones and AI-guided autonomous systems, are rapidly transforming warfare and challenging traditional military doctrines.
What this means: The war in Ukraine shows weapons become obsolete quickly, leading to innovative procurement systems like its ‘e-points’ for drones. Military leaders debate if changes are revolutionary, but agree on accelerating warfare transformation, with autonomy seen as a major game-changer.
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U.S. trade deficit widened in May as imports of AI components rose.
The U.S. trade deficit ballooned in May to its widest since March 2025 as the country imported more products like pharmaceuticals, vehicles and semiconductors for the artificial-intelligence boom, while American-made exports declined.
The trade gap in goods and services widened by 42.2% in May from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted $77.6 billion, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. That marked the highest level since the deficit neared $133 billion in March last year, when companies were racing to import goods ahead of President Trump’s new tariff rollouts.
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China’s military said on Monday that it test-launched a long-range ballistic missile from a nuclear submarine, a rare display of advanced capabilities that set off concerns from the U.S. and its allies across Asia and the Pacific.
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Industrial production in Germany unexpectedly rose for a second consecutive month in May despite higher energy costs and operational uncertainty due to the conflict in the Middle East.
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Canada’s trade surplus ballooned to its widest in four years as exports hit a record high on the back of a strong lift in shipments of metals and minerals and the continued benefit of higher crude-oil prices.
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A pair of improvised bombs exploded Tuesday in central Damascus during a landmark visit by French President Emmanuel Macron, injuring at least 18 people and highlighting the threats to a fledgling Syrian government that has become a security partner for Western and regional powers.
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51%
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Percentage of chief executives who said their company couldn’t maintain undisrupted operations for more than three weeks if a major supply chain shock occurred tomorrow, according to a study by Bain & Co. unit Proxima. CEOs surveyed worked at companies with $500 million or more in annual revenue.
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Influential progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders urged Graham Platner to exit the race for Senate in Maine, a day after a woman he was romantically involved with publicly alleged that he sexually assaulted her.
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Just days before July 4, an Agriculture Department official called some of the country’s top grocers to raise a pressing topic: Lower beef prices.
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Allies of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) said Tuesday they have had in-depth conversations with the hospitalized lawmaker in recent days, looking to bat down rumors that his health had sharply deteriorated.
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A Manhattan high-rise office building being converted into apartments was at risk of partial collapse on Tuesday, setting off a mad scramble to stabilize the structure that shut down several blocks in the heart of the city.
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Nigel Farage, the British populist whose anti-immigration party has led polls for the past year, said he was stepping down as a lawmaker amid a scandal over his finances, but plans to run again for the same seat.
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