Washington, DC

1. US strikes Iran again
2. Patriot rights for Ukraine
3. Rubio notifies Congress on Syria
4. Iran war and inflation uncertainty
5. Trump threatens Spain
6. Platner’s ultimatum

Crude oil futures ▲ another 5%, to $75 a barrel, after President Trump said the ceasefire with Iran is over.

US launches new strikes on Iran

US Central Command has launched new strikes on Iran this evening at the direction of President Donald Trump, as the ceasefire between the two countries goes up in smoke. Trump, speaking at the NATO summit in Türkiye today, told reporters that the US may reimpose a military blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and warned that an attack was imminent. “We’ll probably hit them hard again tonight. I’ll give them a little warning: We’re going to hit them hard tonight,” he said. And while Trump also said he isn’t sure he wants to make a deal with Iran anymore, he said he doesn’t think the war with Iran will restart, predicting that “it’s going to go very quickly.” The shattered ceasefire is going to be a challenge for Republicans, as most voters oppose the conflict.

— Shelby Talcott

US to help Ukraine build Patriot interceptors

Trump agreed to supply licenses for Ukraine to build Patriot missile interceptors during a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy today at the NATO summit in Türkiye. The move stops short of the immediate transfer of Patriots to Ukraine that Kyiv would have preferred, but nevertheless is welcome news to European officials hoping for more US help against Russia. “We want weapons. Nobody produces enough. Whatever helps,” one European diplomat said. The details have yet to be worked out and Trump acknowledged that the companies that produce Patriots — Lockheed Martin and RTX Corp. — hadn’t been notified of his decision. There’s also the question of where the systems would physically be produced. Building them in Ukraine would present Russia with a new target, the diplomat said, adding that ideally production would take place in another European country, like Germany, France, or Poland.

— Morgan Chalfant

Rubio notifies Congress of plan to move toward Syria normalization

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has formally notified Congress that the Trump administration plans to lift Syria’s designation as a state sponsor of terrorism, Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller scoops. Trump told reporters earlier Wednesday that he planned to drop the label following a meeting with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara. Advocates for normalized US-Syria relations had previously told Semafor they were expecting the change, which will clear the way for private-sector investment in Syria. “This is yet another historic step by President Trump to give the Syrian people a chance at greatness,” Rubio said in a statement shared with Semafor. He cited an executive order from June 2025 that directed a review of the designation as well as “positive changes,” “counterterrorism actions” and “formal assurances” by al-Sharaa.

Iran war complicates global economic outlook

The global economy is weathering the shock from the Iran war, but higher energy prices and inflation risks are complicating the outlook, according to new reports from the International Monetary Fund and the Federal Reserve. The IMF lowered its 2026 global forecast to 3%, down from 3.1% in April and below the 3.5% average growth in 2024 and 2025, citing high energy prices and trade risks. The fund said the economy avoided a sharper downturn, partially due to demand for AI, and projected growth will rebound to 3.4% in 2027. The Fed’s minutes from its June meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, showed officials were divided over the direction of interest rates, reflecting uncertainty over how long energy prices from the Iran conflict will keep inflation elevated. Despite differing views, the committee unanimously voted to keep its benchmark rate at 3.5-3.75%.

Trump threatens to cut off trade with Spain

Trump threatened to halt all US trade with Spain today, escalating a dispute over Madrid’s refusal to increase defense spending. “Spain is a terrible partner in NATO. … They don’t pay,” Trump said, directing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to “cut off all trade with Spain.” Trump’s threat revived a longstanding fight: At last year’s NATO summit, Spain was the only member to reject the alliance’s 5% defense spending target, pledging 2.1% instead. Spanish domestic politics constrain Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez: He leads a fragile minority coalition of left-wing and regional nationalist parties that are skeptical of military spending. Experts say a US trade embargo would be difficult to implement because Spain’s trade policy is controlled by the EU, not Madrid alone. Spain also has a trade deficit with the US, so US exporters could pay a price, too.

— Lauren Morganbesser

Platner campaign and Maine Democrats continue to feud

Maine Democrats clashed again with Graham Platner today, after their Senate nominee’s campaign accused the state party of plotting with Washington insiders to control the replacement process if he quits. In a text to Platner’s supporters, campaign manager Ben Chin accused Democrats of allowing DSCC operatives “to plan a potential nominating process behind closed doors” and “cut our team, our volunteers, and our vast networks of supporters out of the conversation.” Maine Democrats called that “false” and promised an “open process” for replacing Platner by the July 27 deadline if he quits; a spokesman for the DSCC said the same and that Platner “needs to drop out immediately so that Maine Democrats can begin the process of fielding a new candidate.” Platner talked with campaign staff before the texts went out, with links to a survey that asked supporters what they’d “say to Graham” and say to the state Democrats.

— David Weigel

On Wednesday, July 22, Katy George, Corporate Vice President of Workforce Transformation at Microsoft, will join Semafor’s The World of Work in Washington, DC to unpack how institutions are adapting and thriving in an increasingly fragmented economy.

As companies face rapid technological change, economic uncertainty, and shifting workforce expectations, leaders are rethinking performance, trust, and long-term success. To explore how AI adoption, workforce transformation, and evolving leadership demands are reshaping the future of work, Semafor editors will sit down with policymakers, business executives, and workplace innovators including Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP); Claire MacIntyre, Chief People Officer, Sam’s Club; Mary Moreland, Executive Vice President, Human Resources, Abbott; Allison Peek Bebo, Chief Human Resources Officer, Pearson; and more.

July 22 | Washington, DC | Request Invite

White House

• President Trump surprised NATO leaders when he said in private that the US wishes “to stay with you,” a softer, more positive message than what he offered in public this week. — Politico
• Trump said he was leaving Türkiye on an older Air Force One aircraft, not the recently renovated Qatari-donated jet, after saying he would stop in the UK on his way home to show off the new Air Force One.
• Trump has increased his warnings about the dangers of “communism” since left-wing Democratic candidates won primaries in New York on June 23, using the term 81 times in the past two weeks. — Reuters

Congress

• Democratic Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear wrote a letter to Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., asking for an update on his health.

Courts

• A former Wisconsin judge avoided prison but was fined $5,000 after she helped a Mexican defendant evade ICE agents at the Milwaukee County courthouse.
• A three-judge panel denied a request from the Kennedy Center’s board to restore President Trump’s name to the building during the appeal process.
• A federal judge rejected Trump’s request to withhold the $5 million plus interest he owes E. Jean Carroll after he was found liable for sexually abusing her. — NYT

Campaigns

• California Gov. Gavin Newsom is launching a midterm campaign tour, beginning in Nevada, to support Democratic candidates and bolster his expected 2028 presidential run. — Politico
• Actor Patrick Dempsey published an op-ed in the Portland Press Herald saying he isn’t running for Senate in Maine.

Healthcare

• Some of the biggest Obamacare insurers are preparing to make hefty increases to premiums in 2027. — WSJ
• Health insurance giants, like UnitedHealth, Cigna and CVS, are suing states that are attempting to break them up. — NYT

Technology

• OpenAI will publicly launch GPT-5.6, its most advanced AI model, tomorrow after a government-requested delay last month. — Axios
• Elon Musk’s SpaceXAI is also releasing its latest model. — Axios

World

• Russia introduced a ban on diesel exports after Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries triggered shortages.

Immigration

• The son of a Mexican man killed yesterday by an immigration enforcement agent during a traffic stop in Houston called for independent investigation into his death.

— President Trump at the NATO summit, referencing Russian revolutionary Vladimir Lenin.