This week’s world-famous-news-haiku-competition™ is all about how gambling companies have had to make record payouts because World Cup players have been scoring so many pesky goals. Send me your entry — to haiku at cheddar dot com — by noon ET Thursday (today!), for consideration by your Cheddar peers. (Don’t worry if you get a bounceback email. The mailbox is working, it’s just been inundated with haikus lately, thank Goodness!)

Matt Davis — Need2Know Chedditor

Table of Contents

What’s the Stock Market Up To, Eh?

$SPX ( ▼ 0.28% )   $DJI ( ▼ 1.09% )   $NDX ( ▲ 1.59% )  

Companies Mentioned in Today’s Newsletter

  $AAPL ( ▲ 0.88% )   $AVGO ( ▲ 4.83% )   $WMT ( ▲ 1.4% )   $KR ( ▲ 1.33% )   $ACI ( ▼ 1.13% )  

What the July 4th Travel ‘Record’ Really Means

Happy birthday, America! To celebrate our nation's independence, millions of us decided that the best thing we could do was flee our homes. While headlines focused on "record-breaking" holiday crowds, Skift editor-in-chief Sarah Kopit politely burst our patriotic balloon.

According to Kopit, this historic weekend was a record "just by the tiniest bit," with airline and road traffic actually being "essentially flat." So what propped up our collective bragging rights? "Cruises of all things, and cruises around Alaska," she said. Apparently, the ultimate indicator of a booming domestic market is the sudden, urgent need to float past melting glaciers.

But don't worry, the travel industry is thriving, if you’re loaded, that is. Kopit points out that we are living in a "K-shaped economy." On the upper leg, "luxury travel or the very expensive trips are actually doing very well" because those travelers are "quite immune from any of this price sensitivity." Meanwhile, the rest of us on the downward leg of the "K" are "struggling a little bit." We are getting "creative" by booking accommodations on Tuesday for a Thursday check-in. Oof.

Thinking of flying? Enjoy the "sticker shock." Even though oil prices fell, airlines aren't passing on the savings. Why? Because they know we're desperate. As Kopit explains, "They raised prices, people paid them, and so they're going to keep them high."

America!

Still, we refuse to stay home. Having survived the COVID-19 lockdowns, Americans have decided travel is something we are simply "not going to give it up."

Quote of the Day

Inside the Swift-Kelce Wedding

Speaking of the K-shaped economy, Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce had their wedding at Madison Square Garden over the weekend. According to Esther Lee, editorial director at The Knot Worldwide, early estimates for the "wedding of the century" sit at "at least $25 million." To put that in perspective, renting MSG alone costs "about a million dollars a day." But don't worry, the couple kept things intimate with a cozy guest list of "1,100 or so guests." Thankfully, security was so airtight that "not one... photo has leaked." It is comforting to know that some things remain sacred, protected by a small army of lawyers handing out NDAs like wedding favors.

But let’s talk about the real magic: The logistics. Lee notes the immense challenge of turning a sports arena into a fairy tale: "How do you take a place that is oftentimes just perceived as an arena and turn it into an actual wedding venue?" Simple! You just flood the zone with trucks full of "draping," "carpeting," and suchlike.

The Knot team estimates a conservative "$2 billion lift globally" surrounding the marriage. Move over, central banks; there is a new driver of global inflation.

As for the fashion? Lee confirms the bride wore a custom "Jonathan Anderson for Dior Haute Couture" gown. We are still waiting for the official photos while they vacation in (checks notes) Rhode Island. What the…

Markets React As Trump Says Iran Ceasefire 'Over'

If you woke up yesterday hoping for a calm, predictable morning in the global financial markets, Donald Trump has some excellent news for your blood pressure. Speaking at the NATO summit in Ankara, the U.S. president casually dropped that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is, "as far as I’m concerned, it’s over." He then helpfully added that Iran's leaders are "scum" and "sick people" and promised we would "probably hit them hard again tonight.”

Wall Street reacted with a combination of trying not to take him too seriously and also a degree of concern. The Dow Jones Industrial Average $DJI ( ▼ 3.35% )  slid 1% at the open, while Brent crude oil futures immediately surged over 5% to around $78 a barrel. Bond yields also leaped, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield touching its highest level since May. As Neil Mehta, a portfolio manager at RBC BlueBay Asset Management, dryly told the Financial Times, "It’s a reminder that nothing has changed in terms of the bond market’s vulnerability to oil prices." 

Buckle up!

Meanwhile, Trump kept the diplomatic vibes immaculate by threatening to cut off all trade with Spain because they wouldn’t let him use their military bases to strike Iran. "Spain is a wasted cause," Trump declared, ordering Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to "cut off all trade... including visits," to which Bessent obediently replied, "Yes, sir." Don't worry, though; Spain's government reportedly listened to these threats "calmly and without concern." Presumably because their team is about to play Belgium in the Quarter Final of the World Cup, and America lost to the world’s chocolate-making moules-frîtes specialists by four goals to one earlier this week. Burn.

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys had hoped this NATO summit would "be as boring as it could be.” Sorry, Kęstutis. When the leader of the free world is handing out Patriot missile blueprints to Ukraine like backyard grill recipes and telling them to "make them yourself" and also back to demanding control of Greenland, "boring" is off the menu.

Song of the Day: Nectar Woode ft. Elton John, ‘Wine into Water’

Rising London soul artist Nectar Woode wrote this song about her late father and their historically difficult relationship, framing the song around a personal "miracle of forgiveness.” She also managed to convince Elton John to play piano on it, which is nice.

Apple to Buy $30bn of U.S.-Made Chips

Apple $AAPL ( ▲ 0.88% ) has committed a cool $30B to buy U.S.-made wireless connectivity chips from Broadcom $AVGO ( ▲ 4.83% ) over the next five years. It’s also a handy down payment on Apple’s massive $600 billion pledge designed to politely avoid getting hit by heavy tariffs on its p