Welcome to The Data Dive, your subscriber-exclusive newsletter about the most consequential elections of the midterms. Every Tuesday morning, I’ll focus on the numbers, trends and data shaping the biggest stories heading into Election Day. I’ll also dig into the 2026 battlegrounds that will determine control of Congress — one district, one county, one city and maybe even one precinct at a time. Today, I examine Republicans’ prospects in Florida. Let’s dive in.

I’ll be answering questions at 3 p.m. today in an exclusive Q&A livestreamed for NBC News subscribers. Submit your question here and subscribe to watch the full Q&A stream.

Florida, which holds its primaries today, is crucial to any hope Republicans have of retaining House control next year. And while a mid-decade redistricting push in the state led by Gov. Ron DeSantis gives the GOP four clear chances to flip Democratic-held seats, realizing these gerrymandered gains isn’t automatic.

As it stands, Democrats need a net gain of just three seats nationally to secure a House majority. The task shouldn’t be too hard given how favorable the political climate has become for them. But Republicans can alter that math if their gerrymander in Florida bears fruit and if similar mid-decade redraws in other states do, as well. Simply put, they need every additional seat they can get — badly.

On paper, the four Democratic-held districts the GOP is targeting through redrawn lines look like fairly straightforward pickups. Here’s how, under their new configurations, they would have voted in the 2024 presidential election.

Subscribe to keep reading The Data Dive, including Steve Kornacki’s analysis of whether Republicans’ new Florida map can deliver the House seats they may need to keep their majority.