For most of the season, I’ve taken the Rays for granted.
I thought they were a good team. A balanced team. A versatile team.
But I’ve been hesitant to call them a great team.
Why?
They don’t do the things great teams typically do. Their run differential, for instance, is on pace to be among the lowest in history for a team with a .600 winning percentage. They’re fourth in the American League in ERA. (Good, but not great). They’re fourth in the AL in runs per game. (Good, but not great).
Yet, with the end of the regular season two weeks away, it might be time to revisit this idea.
Why?
Because the one thing the Rays do better than any other team in the American League is win. Across the board. In almost every situation. They’re great at home, but above .500 on the road. They’re 22-14 in one-run games. They have a .593 winning percentage against right-handed starters and a .634 against left-handed starters.
But if you really want to ponder their consistency, think about this:
On May 1, the Rays had a season winning percentage of .613.
On June 1, it was .632.
On July 1, it was .602.
On August 1, it was 591.
And on September 1, it was .601.
There is nothing fluky about that. The Rays have basically played at a .600 pace — which translates to 97 wins — for six consecutive months. That’s not just consistent, it’s remarkably impressive.
And if that doesn’t rock your boat, consider this:
The Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox, Guardians and Astros would join the Rays as AL playoff teams if the postseason began today. The Rays have a 24-13 record against those five teams.
That’s crazy. That’s a .649 winning percentage against the next-best teams in the league. The Rays have not fattened up their record against the dregs of the AL; they’ve actually played better against the toughest competition. For comparison’s sake, the Yankees are 21-20 against the current playoff-bound teams in the American League.
(The Rays are 7-8 against the six leaders in the clubhouse in the National League, but you don’t need to worry about that unless they reach the World Series.)
So what’s my point?
Dismissing the Rays as this collection of overachievers who fortuitously came together while the rest of the AL was having a down season isn’t just shortchanging them. It’s horribly misjudging them.
Now, it’s true, there are times when the offense looks punchless. And the rotation has had some health issues in the past couple of months.
But that’s been the beauty of the season. Team president Erik Neander recognized the offense was top-heavy with Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero, so he went out at the trade deadline and acquired Liam Hicks. Voila. The offense has gone from 4.4 runs per game to 4.6 since Hicks’ arrival.
Neander also understood that his rotation might be overextended because of the workload and injury history of his starters. So he went out at the trade deadline and acquired Freddy Peralta. Soon after, Griffin Jax and Shane McClanahan went on the injured list, but the Rays have gone 6-2 in Peralta’s starts and he’s posted a 3.86 ERA.
So is this a great team?
Without a deep postseason run, historians will say no.
But the odds are a lot better than I would have ever guessed.
