Game 1 begins in a matter of hours.
If you’ve been reading the Tampa Bay Times, you know we’ve covered a lot of the angles already.
For instance, we revisited the trade that brought Junior Caminero from Cleveland to Tampa Bay. We looked at how Drew Rasmussen has evolved into the most unheralded ace in the postseason. We contemplated what Liam Hicks brought to the Rays in the midseason deal from the Marlins. We explained how the Rays hit a surprisingly high number of homers in the season’s second half.
If you’re caught up on all of those stories, here’s a few other thoughts to occupy your time before Carl Crawford throws the opening pitch tonight.
• Roster construction: The Rays went with 14 position players and 12 pitchers during the Division Series against the Yankees. It was a fairly easy decision because it was potentially a five-game series with three off-days. There wasn’t much need for 13 pitchers like the Rays carried during the regular season.
That could change in this series. President of baseball operations Erik Neander hinted that the Rays would go back to 13 pitchers and 13 position players. The roster will be announced sometime today. Best guess is Jorge Mateo (or possibly Cedric Mullins) will be dropped and Casey Legumina (or possibly Brody Hopkins) will be added.
• Setting the rotation: We know Rasmussen will pitch Game 1. Presumably, he would also pitch Game 5, if necessary. Kevin Cash said Sunday that the Rays had not yet decided on the rest of the rotation, but it would make sense for Freddy Peralta to pitch in Game 2, as he did in the ALDS. Peralta pitched better at Tropicana Field than he did on the road, and using him in Game 2 would line him up for two starts at home since a possible Game 6 would also be back at the Trop.
That leaves decisions on Games 3, 4 and 7. My guess would be Nick Martinez in Game 3, Griffin Jax in Game 4 and an all-hands-on-deck situation in Game 7. Ian Seymour would be a swing man out of the bullpen.
• The payroll saga: For the love of all that is holy, do not be suckered into the argument that baseball does not need a salary cap because three of the four remaining teams are low-revenue, low-payroll franchises. I’m not saying a salary cap is necessary – depending on the salary floor and changes to arbitration and free agency it could potentially harm teams like the Rays – but the idea that the Rays, Brewers and Guardians reaching the final four somehow eliminates the competitive balance question is just foolish.
There are decades of evidence that teams in the top half of baseball’s payroll win the World Series more than 90% of the time. If Tampa Bay, Cleveland or Milwaukee manages to pull off a Series victory in October, it would not be proof that all is well. It would, instead, be an aberration.
• Matchup question: No pitching staff in the American League had more whiffs than the Guardians. Cleveland pitchers averaged 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Why is this significant? Because no team in the majors was less prone to strikeouts than the Rays. Something has got to give.
• DNA similarities: Much will be made about how the Guardians and Rays approach roster construction in the same way. Both franchises are built around pitching and run prevention with offenses that tend to be more contact-oriented than launch angle-dependent. But those are not the only similarities. Because their baseball ops departments have similar mindsets, these teams tend to pursue the same type of players and are not shy about making trades with each other. The Rays got Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero from Cleveland in trades, and Richie Palacios also began his career with the Guardians before coming to Tampa Bay via St. Louis. Kevin Kelly began his career in Cleveland before coming to the Rays via trade with Colorado after being a Rule 5 pick.
Former Rays Nathaniel Lowe, Kyle Manzardo and Shawn Armstrong are all on Cleveland’s 40-man roster.
• Bye blessings: While Rays pitchers are completely rested because of their first-round bye and a sweep in the ALDS, the Guardians are running on fumes. Their top three starters – Parker Messick, Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams – all pitched in the last two games against the White Sox. That’s why Foster Griffin, who started nine games and had a 5.19 ERA this season, is their Game 1 starter.
