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OCTOBER 12, 2026 |
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Commerce media has spent years riding a wave of new advertising dollars. But soon, the industry will need to prepare for a future in which growth comes at someone else's expense. |
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According to
EMARKETER's forecast, annual incremental commerce media ad spending will peak at approximately $17 billion in 2027 before declining through 2030. |
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The money isn't drying up. But the pool of new spending that has helped fuel commerce media's expansion is approaching its peak, while more new players are lining up for a piece of it. |
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“The opportunity to simply compete for new spend is getting smaller, and meanwhile, the pressure to generate and create new demands is increasing,” said our analyst Sarah Marzano during a "The Next Era of Commerce Media" presentation held during Advertising Week New York. |
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For commerce media networks, the next opportunity lies in budgets that already have a home. Social media, paid search, and connected TV (CTV) command substantial portions of advertisers' media plans, and winning a share of that spending will require more than offering another way to buy ads on those channels.
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Walmart partnered with Warner Bros. Discovery—now part of Skydance—to bring shopper targeting and measurement data to linear television, the company told Business Insider. |
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The deal extends Walmart Connect’s retail media capabilities, which already span connected TV (CTV), into traditional broadcast inventory. Advertisers can use Walmart’s demand-side platform (DSP) to access placements on networks including TBS, TLC, and TruTV, and live sports events when available. |
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Walmart is pushing into linear as the format is shrinking. Warner Bros. Discovery’s global linear ad revenues fell 12% YoY last quarter, and we expect pay TV viewership will decline 4.7% YoY to 161.6 million this year. |
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However, linear’s shrinking audience still includes shoppers whom CTV hasn’t fully captured, particularly older and lower-income households slower to cut cable. And the retailer has space to be experimental—we forecast that Walmart’s US retail media ad revenues will grow 31.2% YoY, ahead of eBay, Target, and Amazon. |
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