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 | | By Kimberly Leonard |
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 "I Voted Early" stickers sit in a bucket by the ballot box. | Adam Bettcher/AP |
Good morning and welcome to Monday. Today marks the first day of in-person early voting for most of Florida. Among the high-profile pols set to cast their ballots today are Sen. Rick Scott, former House Speaker Newt Gingich and Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried.
The early voting numbers that’ll soon be posted on the Division of Elections website will help give some indication about voter enthusiasm, including which party is quicker to turn out. Here’s where things stand as many in-person polling locations open: — More than 1.6 million people have already voted.
So far, Florida has sent 3.3 million mail-in ballots out for the general election, and nearly half have already been returned, the most recent data from the state’s Division of Elections show. This is lower than in recent history after vote-by-mail regulations were changed under a 2021 election law signed by Gov. Ron DeSantis. The law purged all standing vote-by-mail requests after 2023, obligating voters to request them anew. Before this, a voter could request ballots for two consecutive election cycles at once.
As POLITICO’s Gary Fineout previously reported, the law resulted in fewer mail-in ballots going out this cycle compared to 2022, when 4.3 million were provided. In Florida, more Democrats than Republicans tend to vote by mail, whereas more Republicans than Democrats tend to vote early. Floridians can keep requesting mail-in ballots until Oct. 24.
— Some election changes are set post-hurricanes. DeSantis gave voters in 20 counties affected by Hurricanes Helene and Milton extra time and flexibility to cast their ballots given the “widespread destruction and damage to homes and businesses” from the storms.
People in Taylor and Pinellas counties will be able to vote early through Election Day, and some polling sites have been moved. Voters in storm-affected counties can ask for vote-by-mail ballots to be mailed to a location that’s different from the residence where they typically live. — The governor’s indirectly on the ballot. This election is key to DeSantis’ legacy on several issues. The first is education, given that he endorsed in school-board races and
already faced some setbacks during the primary. DeSantis also wants voters to reject a ballot measure that would enshrine abortion rights into the state Constitution. Should voters go the other way, then it would be a rejection of the law that DeSantis signed that makes most abortions illegal after six weeks. Likewise, DeSantis opposes a ballot measure that would legalize cannabis for recreational use, and, according to a new story by
NBC News’ Matt Dixon and Allan Smith, it’s a fight that has become personal. Pushing for the amendment’s passage is Jeff Roe’s Axiom Strategies, the same operation that led the super PAC Never Back Down that backed DeSantis’ campaign during the presidential primary. Complicating the governor’s chances is that he has been tied up for weeks in hurricane preparation and response, taking time away from fundraising or messaging on the issues to prioritize the natural disasters.
— Both presidential campaigns are around this week. Former President Donald Trump is hosting a Latino roundtable on Tuesday at his Trump National Doral golf course just outside Miami. The event was initially set to happen about two weeks ago, to coincide with his Univision town hall, but both had to be postponed because of Hurricane Milton.
Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison will be at the Orange County stop of a bus tour for the Florida Democratic Party that kicks off today and is focused on early voting. On Wednesday, Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign is sending second gentleman Doug Emhoff to Broward County for a get out the vote rally and to a fundraising reception in Miami, both aimed at encouraging early voting. WHERE’S RON?
Gov. DeSantis is holding a press conference at 10:15 a.m. in Coral Gables with Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez. Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget in the campaign reporting that Playbook should look at? Get in touch at: kleonard@politico.com.
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| A message from Uber: Thank You, Florida Uber Drivers For stepping up during Hurricanes Milton and Helene by helping thousands of Floridians get to shelters and support centers. Your efforts helped keep our communities safe.
Learn how Uber drivers stepped up. | | | |
 | ... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ... | |
TODAY AND TOMORROW — The Future of Florida Forum and Florida Chamber annual meeting in Orlando. UNCHANGED — “Jobless rate in Florida for September holds steady for 6th consecutive month,”
reports Jim Turner of News Service of Florida. “Florida’s unemployment rate held for a sixth consecutive month, but a key state economist said Friday ‘it’s still too soon to tell’ how a trio of hurricanes could affect the state’s jobless figures. The state Department of Commerce on Friday estimated 368,000 Floridians were qualified as out-of-work in September, a figure unchanged from August. The state’s work force of 11.04 million shrank by 6,000 workers in the same period as retirements continue to outpace efforts to grow the labor force.”
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PENINSULA AND BEYOND | |
IN THE DARK — “Cubans struggle as power not fully restored days after blackout,” by The Associated Press
. “Many Cubans waited in anguish Sunday as electricity on much of the island had yet to be restored days after an island-wide blackout. Their concerns were also raised as Hurricane Oscar made landfall in the southeastern Bahamas and was heading toward their country. Energy Minister Vicente de la O Levy said in a press conference he hopes the country’s electricity grid will be restored on Monday or Tuesday morning.”
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...HURRICANE HOLE... | | | |
President Joe Biden, Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), right, and FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik Hooks, left, view damage from Hurricane Helene in Keaton Beach, Fla. on Oct. 3, 2024. | Susan Walsh/AP |
SUBTLE DIGS — “Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis’ quiet feud over Florida’s hurricanes,” by Gary Fineout and Kimberly Leonard
. “Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis are in a fairly small fraternity of Florida governors who have led their state through major hurricanes. They have some critiques about each other’s performance. Both have been ubiquitous in the run-up to and aftermath of Hurricanes Helene and Milton slamming into Florida, issuing extensive pre-landfall warnings and touring damage afterwards — but never together. And while neither has directly criticized the other by name, Tallahassee insiders, including those with ties to the two Republicans, have noticed the subtle jabs each has taken as the state rebuilds.”
WARMING CLIMATE — “Hurricane Milton brought a shocking deluge. The reason why doesn’t bode well for Florida,” reports the Miami Herald’s Ashley Miznazi and Ana Claudia Chacin. “Milton was a massive rainmaker — overflowing canals, rivers and lakes and flooding homes and neighborhoods from North Tampa to Orlando. Climate change almost certainly made Milton’s deluge worse, scientists found in a new post-hurricane analysis — by perhaps 20 to 30 percent.”
TAMPA BAY TIMES BUILDING — “A crane collapsed in Hurricane Milton. Authorities aren’t investigating,” reports the Tampa Bay Times’ Zachary T. Sampson, Bethany Barnes and Colleen Wright
. “Florida has no laws on crane safety during high winds, not even for hurricanes. In fact, lawmakers have banned cities and counties from passing rules themselves — at the urging of construction lobbyists. The use of cranes is governed primarily by federal standards, which treat such equipment as a workplace hazard — not a threat to the general public.” SCAMS EMERGE — “Florida official warns Hurricane Milton victims about scammers posing as FEMA workers,”
reports The Associated Press. “Sarasota County Emergency Management Chief Sandra Tapfumaneyi told residents on Thursday that some scammers with fake FEMA badges were asking residents for their bank account information, which they should never provide. Instead, hurricane victims seeking help should only share that on FEMA's online system, she said.” — “They fled Cuba in search of the American Dream. Hurricanes upended everything,”
by The Washington Post’s Arelis R. Hernández.
| | | | A message from Uber:
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| CAMPAIGN MODE | |
TODAY — Sen. Rick Scott has a get-out-the=vote rally in Boca Raton with Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) ... … Scott has a
new radio ad out
in Creole featuring Rod Joseph, a former Democratic candidate for Senate this cycle who switched his registration to Republican then endorsed Scott for reelection. Joseph, who is Haitian, finished last in the primary and was never considered a competitive candidate, but his roughly 5 percent of support translated to about 57,000 votes in August. “The values we share about America have left our Democratic Party,” Joseph says in the ad. The spot comes as former President Donald Trump continues to face backlash over false claims he made that Haitians in Springfield, Ohio, were eating pets. Florida is home to more than half a million people of Haitian heritage.
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Volunteers for Florida Democrats and Swifties for Kamala make bracelets for voters at a campaign office in Miami Gardens. | Kimberly Leonard/POLITICO | ‘SWIFTIES FOR KAMALA’ —
Volunteers for the Harris-Walz campaign made bracelets in Miami Gardens on Saturday to give to Taylor Swift concert-goers as they canvassed the stadium area. They featured messages like, “You need to Kamala down” and “Childless cat lady.” Some bracelets had QR codes attached to help voters find their polling locations.
The volunteers spent Saturday afternoon text banking as Swift songs played over the loudspeaker and they talked excitedly about the possibility of electing the first woman U.S. president. A few were even headed to the concert that evening, hopeful that Swift might say something about the forthcoming election. “I’d love to see the history of this country go from women cannot vote to women decide this vote,” said Abby Hillis of Orlando.
Hillis and fellow Swifties for Kamala volunteer Kate Cantrell, of Tampa, reflected on what they called the craziness of when former President Donald Trump was in office. “Kamala Harris is a relaxing thought,” Cantrell said. Asked about where Florida was politically, she said she’d been heartened by the way Floridians came together to help each other with debris and home repairs after back-to-back hurricanes, regardless of their politics. “I hope we can get to a place where we all feel more unity,” she said.
THE COUNTER MESSAGE — Republicans focused their on how expensive tickets to Swift concerts had become, blaming inflation under President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. They, too, used an image of a Swifties-themed bracelet that spelled out “inflation” and had a lit-up mobile billboard try to drive home the point.
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Swiftie bracelets supporting Vice President Kamala Harris. | Kimberly Leonard/POLITICO | COURT FACTOR — “As Floridians vote on abortion rights, opponents plan court battle to void results,”
reports the South Florida Sun Sentinel’s Skyler Swisher and Jeffrey Schweers
. “An 11th-hour lawsuit filed Wednesday by anti-abortion opponents threatens to derail their efforts. The lawsuit, heavily based on a report from Gov. Ron DeSantis’ administration and pushed by his allies, alleges ‘widespread fraud’ in the abortion petition drive and seeks to strike Amendment 4 from the ballot — or nullify any election results. After so much effort and time, could Amendment 4 really go by the wayside, regardless of what the voters want? It seems at least possible, according to experts interviewed by the Orlando Sentinel — a suggestion that deepens the extraordinary political and legal morass into which the abortion rights measure has
been cast.” PALM BEACH PUSH — “Ron DeSantis and Big Sugar join forces in key south Florida campaign,” reports Jason Garcia of Seeking Rents
. “Federal accounts linked to Florida’s Republican governor recently funneled $40,000 to one of the candidates in a pivotal Palm Beach County election — an election that will likely decide which party controls the biggest government in a county of more than 1.5 million people. The bundled cash was dropped into a political committee supporting Michael Barnett, a county commissioner in Palm Beach who was installed last year by DeSantis. It was part of an appointment two-step by the governor that gave Republicans a 3-2 board majority. But that majority is now hanging in the balance as Barnett runs for re-election against Democratic challenger Joel Flores, a former mayor
of Greenacres.”
| | | | A message from Uber: Thank You, Florida Uber Drivers
In the face of Hurricanes Milton and Helene, Uber drivers gave Floridians rides to shelters and support centers. We thank the thousands of Uber drivers who went above and beyond, ensuring that during a time of crisis, no one was left behind. Your dedication made a difference when it mattered most. Learn how Uber drivers stepped up. | | | |
| ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN | |
IN JAIL — “'Lieutenant Dan,' who gained fame riding out hurricanes on boat, is arrested in Florida,” by NBC News’ Antonio Planas
. “Joseph Malinowski, who gained internet fame because of his risky decisions to ride out Hurricane Helene and Milton on his 20-foot sailboat, was arrested Friday on multiple charges including failing to appear in court, Tampa police said. Malinowski, 54, known as ‘Lieutenant Dan,’ was arrested on two outstanding warrants for failure to appear in court and a misdemeanor charge of trespassing in a city park after warning, police said in a statement. Officers warned Malinowski on Thursday that he was creating a health hazard because he did not have an ‘accessible marine sanitation device aboard his unregistered vessel and did not have record of proper disposal of
waste,’ police said.” — “MAGA music: Inside the world of a Trump-touting subculture that calls Florida home,” by the South Florida Sun Sentinel’s Shira Moolten and Angie DiMichele. BIRTHDAYS: Florida Supreme Court Justice
Jorge Labarga … Matthew Pinzur, senior vice president and chief marketing officer at Jackson Health System. | | |
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