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 | | By Robbie Gramer and
Eric Bazail-Eimil | |
Privately, U.S. officials as well as East Asian diplomats and congressional aides say there’s little Washington can do practically to stymy the blossoming alliance between Moscow and Pyongyang in conversations with NatSec Daily. | Gavriil Grigorov/Kremlin Photo via AP | With help from Paul McLeary and Daniel Lippman
Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric Russia and North Korea are alarming Western nations with their blossoming defense alliance. And Washington has few if any options to completely stop it, officials privately concede. White House Spokesperson
JOHN KIRBY called the reports of 1,500 North Korean troops being deployed to Russia “dangerous and highly concerning” but said it also underscored how Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN was “increasingly desperate” to turn the tide of his costly war in Ukraine.
Privately, U.S. officials as well as East Asian diplomats and congressional aides say there’s little Washington can do practically to stymy the blossoming alliance between Moscow and Pyongyang in conversations with NatSec Daily, short of direct military action which isn’t on the table. These three officials and two aides were granted anonymity to discuss the matter candidly.
They concede that Washington has made little to no progress in slowing North Korea’s rogue nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, and if it can’t do that, it can only do so much to halt North Korean troop deployments to Russia, too.
For starters, the go-to U.S. retaliation against its adversaries — adding countries to sanctions and export controls lists — doesn’t work on North Korea the way it does other countries. “It is already sanctioned to the hilt, more sanctions can’t really do much,” said one U.S. official. Second, North Korea has effectively been ghosting President JOE BIDEN
ever since he first came into office nearly four years ago, leaving no starting point for any dialogue on this issue in the first place. The White House has repeatedly extended public offers to talk to North Korea, also known as the DPRK, any time with “no preconditions” but has only received radio silence from North Korean leader KIM JONG UN in return.
Third, officials said, Moscow’s recently renewed embrace of Pyongyang gives the isolated North Korean regime a new diplomatic lifeline to the outside world that is impervious to Western or international pressure. Putin has shown no willingness to halt or alter r enewed defense and security cooperation with North Korea despite waves of international condemnation, going so far as to veto a U.N. sanctions monitoring program
on North Korea it had previously supported earlier this year. Still, the United States is trying. It has worked to strengthen its alliance structures in East Asia and strengthen its defense cooperation with South Korea and Japan in a show of force to North Korea and its backers in Beijing and Moscow. And the U.S. has boosted cooperation among its allies in Asia and those in Europe — a development all sides are welcoming. NATO has requested that South Korea send a delegation to Brussels to brief the alliance on the reports of North Korean troops in Russia,
as our own STUART LAU reports. “We are looking into the reports that the DPRK is preparing to send soldiers to fight alongside Russia. We are consulting with our allies and partners on the implications of such a dramatic move," said Lt. Cmdr JAVAN RASNAKE
, a Department of Defense spokesperson. The National Security Council told NatSec Daily it is reviewing policy options if the reports prove correct, but did not elaborate.
One major unknown that has unnerved some U.S. officials is what exactly the North Korean troops will be doing in Russia. Ukrainian officials have said that the North Korean troops could begin directly fighting against their forces in Ukraine. Some U.S. officials and congressional aides speculate that these North Korean forces could gain warfighting training and technical know-how on Western defense systems from the battle-hardened Russian forces to take back to their own country.
“There are a lot of unknowns about what they’ll do, but all the options are bad,” said a congressional aide who works on Asian security issues.
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Learn more. | | | | | ABOUT THAT LEAK:
The U.S. isn’t denying the authenticity of leaked documents purporting to show U.S. assessments of a planned Israeli strike against Iran. But they’re not betraying much about how the leak happened.
Kirby told reporters that while there is no expectation that further leaks will occur, the U.S. government is “not exactly sure how these documents found their way into the public domain.” Kirby added that the U.S. has spoken to Israel over the disclosure of the documents, which made the rounds on pro-Iranian social media accounts and channels over the weekend. The leak is an embarrassing blow for the administration and follows another high-profile breach last year
when classified documents around the war in Ukraine were released on popular gaming platform Discord by an Air National Guard member. It also seems poised to further wrinkle the U.S.-Israel relationship as Israel proceeds on with its pledged response against Iran for the attack earlier this month. BLINKEN BLASTS OFF AGAIN: Secretary of State
ANTONY BLINKEN is making a trip to the Middle East following the death of Hamas leader YAHYA SINWAR. State Department spokesperson MATT MILLER
said in a statement this morning that Blinken will be in the region through Oct. 25, making visits to Israel and “other countries in the Middle East.” The visit, said Miller, will focus on “the importance of bringing the war in Gaza to an end, securing the release of all hostages, and alleviating the suffering of the Palestinian people” and “the need to reach a diplomatic resolution to the conflict between Israel and Hizballah.” Biden had said Blinken would visit the region last week during his trip to Berlin.
He’s not the only official in the region — Kirby confirmed that special envoy AMOS HOCHSTEIN is in Beirut today, meeting with regional stakeholders “to see what could be in the realm of the possible, in terms of trying to find meaningful cease-fire between those two sides.” Both trips come as Israel continues its offensive in the Gaza Strip, and follow its pledge over the weekend to strike hard against Hezbollah’s leaders and network in Lebanon.
MOLDOVA’S MOMENT: Brussels and Washington are letting out sighs of relief this morning after po-European Moldovan President MAIA SANDU survived to a runoff against a Russian-backed candidate and a referendum to advance the country’s integration with the European Union eked out a narrow victory
in Sunday’s elections. The results are closer than Sandu’s allies in the West likely would have wanted. But as we wrote on Friday, Moldova was facing intense election meddling from the Kremlin, as Moscow sought to back pro-Russian proxy parties and pro-Putin oligarchs even tried to bribe voters to oppose the referendum. And the U.S. was taking several steps to combat Kremlin election interference, as our own
MAGGIE MILLER reported Saturday. Reacting to the results, Kirby said today that “we will continue to stand with them as they endeavor to continue to protect their democracy and, quite frankly, to reach the aspirations of the Moldovan people.” The result will also be a morale boost for opposition parties in Georgia
, where parliamentary elections are coming up on Saturday. Those parties are looking to unseat the Georgian Dream party and restore the country’s glidepath to integration with the European Union. The Kremlin has also been putting its thumb on the scales in Georgia’s ballot. IT’S MONDAY.
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MEASURING UNCOMMITTED’S MOMENTUM: The Uncommitted movement may not be the force it was earlier this year, but its members could still deny Democrats a win in Michigan as the war in the Gaza Strip rages. As our own ZACK STANTON reports, Vice President KAMALA HARRIS
is recouping support among college-aged voters in Michigan, but a sizable number of holdouts within that critical voting bloc remain frustrated with how Harris has remained in lock-step with the White House on support for Israel. The holdouts exacerbate Harris’ existing issues on the war in the swing state. Green Party candidate JILL STEIN is enjoying strong support in Dearborn and Dearborn Heights, hubs for the state’s Arab American communities. And in a state
DONALD TRUMP won in 2016 by just over 10,000 votes, every holdout matters for the Harris campaign. ICYMI — Robbie and our own NAHAL TOOSI, JOE GOULD, CONNOR O’BRIEN and PAUL McLEARY
contributed to these helpful guides to Trump and Harris’ possible cabinet picks: Who might make up Harris’ cabinet by POLITICO Staff Who might make up Trump’s cabinet by POLITICO Staff
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A RARE REDEMPTION STORY: The Commerce Department blacklisted 26 entities today for supporting Russia, China and Iran’s weapons programs and helping them circumvent Western sanctions and export restrictions. But as Robbie and Maggie report,
there’s a success story buried in today’s filing. The Commerce Department did something unusual and removed an entity — Canadian tech company Sandvine — from its trade restrictions list. “It’s relatively uncommon, and certainly in this particular space of cybersurveillance, this is the first one of these we’ve done,” said a senior Commerce Department official, who was granted anonymity to discuss the matter candidly.
Sandvine had scrambled to get its act together after it was added to the entity list in February amid allegations its products were being used to target dissidents in countries like Egypt. Following those reports, the company exited dozens of non-democratic countries, conducted a corporate restructure and brought in human rights experts permanently to its leadership team. And last month, Sandvine pledged it was undertaking a new chapter as a “technology solution leader for democracies.”
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AUSTIN IN KYIV: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN made a surprise trip to Ukraine today, unveiling a major tranche of new military aid to Kyiv as Ukraine continues to rally support for its victory plan.
As Paul reports, the U.S. will give Kyiv $400 million in new military aid out of the $5 billion left in the U.S. military aid account for Ukraine. But Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY faces enormous pressure as his country continues to lose territory at the front and his victory plan received lukewarm reception in Europe and the United States.
And Ukrainians and their allies are still disappointed in the degree of support Washington and European capitals are providing Kyiv. At a press roundtable, Ukrainian Nobel Prize Laureate OLEKSANDRA MATVIICHUK and former Supreme Allied Commander Gen. PHILIP BREEDLOVE urged the West to step up its aid to Kyiv, framing a Ukrainian victory as a key test for global democracy.
“Ukraine is a tool for Russia to break this international order,” said Matviichuk. “Putin will stop only when he will be stopped, and if authoritarian countries support each other, democracies must demonstrate unity in supporting freedom and democratic values.” | |
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — SECURING UNDERSEA CABLES: A bipartisan group of senators is urging the White House to better protect undersea cables from potential Russian and Chinese sabotage. In a letter shared first with NatSec Daily, the Democrats and Republicans, led by Sens. TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.) and CHRIS MURPHY
(D-Conn.), warn that undersea communications and energy cables have long been a target during warfare and that private ownership of many of these cables may hinder their maintenance and protection in a future conflict with Russia or China.
“It is imperative that the United States undertake a review of existing vulnerabilities to global undersea cable infrastructure, including the threat of sabotage by Russia as well as the growing role of the People’s Republic of China in cable laying and repair,” the lawmakers wrote. “If we are truly to deepen vital commercial and security relationships with willing partners and allies, this must be a national priority.”
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HUNGRY TO DITCH HUNGARY: European Union officials are counting the days until Hungary is forced to relinquish the European presidency and they can resume debate on tougher sanctions against Russia. As our own GABRIEL GAVIN,
ZIA WEISE and KOEN VERHELST report, Budapest’s six month stint at the helm of the continent’s agenda has seen discussions about targeting Russia’s critical economic lifelines – namely the oil sector – dry up. But Poland follows Hungary in the European presidency and Warsaw is chomping at the bits to punish Russia. “The imports of Russian energy [are] growing,” said Polish Climate Minister
KRZYSZTOF BOLESTA this week at a meeting of ministers in Luxembourg. “This is a bad sign. We need to address that.” It’s a sentiment other Europeans agree with, as already-thin patience with Hungarian leader VIKTOR ORBÁN’s obstructionism wears out further.
“A harsh winter is coming in Ukraine, but so too is the end of a disastrous Hungarian presidency,” said one senior EU diplomat, who was granted anonymity to speak freely on the sensitive talks. “We hope all questions that became hostages of Hungary’s unconstructive blocking will be solved with a necessary sense of urgency … A fresh blow of air is definitely much awaited.”
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— CHARLES KERR is starting today as special assistant for the assistant Secretary of Defense for space policy, NatSec Daily has learned. He most recently served as a program analyst at Headquarters Air Force A5/7. — Democracy Forward has added MICHAEL WIDOMSKI
as director of policy and public affairs. Widomski previously was chief of workforce engagement at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. — NICOLE CHERE' (SYPHAX YOUNG) WOOD is now acting director of the Department of Homeland Security’s Center for Faith-based and Neighborhood Partnerships, our own DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. She most recently was deputy director of the center.
— Washington Office is adding HALIMAH NAJIEB-LOCKE, CASEY PLEW and CHARLIE BURGOYNE as new team members and advisers. Najieb-Locke previously was deputy assistant secretary of Defense for industrial base resilience policy. Plew previously was director of NavalX in the U.S. Navy. Burgoyne is founder and CEO of Valkyrie. — CARA CHANG
is now special assistant for health and veterans and immigration at the Domestic Policy Council at the White House. She is a former intern at the White House and is a recent graduate of Harvard University.
| | — TIM LIPTROT, War on the Rocks:
How to sanction Sudan without creating a failed state — STEPHEN WERTHEIM, The New York Times: How Kamala Harris should put America first — for real — SHANNON O’NEIL, Foreign Affairs:
A U.S. reset with Mexico is still possible
| | — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.:
Implications of the Blinken/Austin letter and Sinwar's passing — Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: Book discussion on "Duty To Deter: American Nuclear Deterrence and the Just War Doctrine" — Wilson Center's Polar Institute, 10 a.m.:
Cooperation in the Arctic: 20 years of partnership between Greenland and the United States — Henry L. Stimson Center, 10 a.m.: Navigating a shifting nuclear landscape from energy to defense — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.:
The spiral of tensions: North Korea, Russia, and Ukraine — Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 12 p.m.: Jordan-Israel peace at 30: A partnership worth preserving —
Tech, Law & Security (TLS) program at American University’s Washington College of Law, 1 p.m.: Operationalizing public-private partnerships: Disrupting cyber threats at scale — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2:30 p.m.: Turkey, the EU, and transatlantic relations in a new global setting
— American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 3 p.m.: Georgians go to the polls: Is this the country's last shot at a democratic future? Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is desperately looking for allies in her efforts to defeat us.
Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, the greatest ally a pair of newsletter writers could ask for.
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The F-35’s Block 4 upgrades provide enhanced capabilities ensuring those we serve employ the most survivable, interoperable and connected aircraft needed to win in highly contested environments.
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