|
| | | |  |
| By Robbie Gramer and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |
After news broke that the Biden administration greenlit Ukraine’s ability to use U.S. long-range weapons inside Russia, many pro-Ukraine U.S. lawmakers reacted with exasperated messages that boiled down to “too little, too late” and “okay, so what next?” | Buda Mendes/Getty Images | With help from Nahal Toosi and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric Ukraine’s strongest backers in Washington have a message for President JOE BIDEN: It’s still not enough. After news broke that the Biden administration greenlit Ukraine’s ability to use U.S. long-range weapons inside Russia, many pro-Ukraine U.S. lawmakers reacted with exasperated messages that boiled down to “too little, too late” and “okay, so what next?” These reactions have come from conservative Republicans and both centrist and progressive Democrats — reflecting a rare point of political unity in Congress on Ukraine on the cusp of DONALD TRUMP taking office. “I think this is something President Biden should have done a little bit earlier,” said Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN, a progressive Democrat from Maryland. “This announcement still doesn't go far enough,” said Rep. JAKE AUCHINCLOSS (D-Mass.), a centrist and heavy-hitter on national security issues. And on the right, outgoing Senate Majority Leader MITCH McCONNELL on Tuesday slammed the Biden administration for only approving how Ukraine could use ATACMS in Russian territory after “months of dithering.” Other GOP lawmakers such as Sen. ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.) and Rep. MIKE TURNER (R-Ohio) have voiced similar frustrations. These sentiments also underscore a tone of desperation as Ukraine’s battlefield positions look grimmer by the day. Russia, now with the help of North Korean soldiers, is slowly chipping away at Ukraine’s frontlines as Ukraine faces manpower shortages. Then there’s the fact that Trump is entering office in two months and his approach to Ukraine, outside of vague declarations he can broker an immediate peace deal, is still largely up in the air. So what’s next? Kyiv’s allies hope that Biden will grant more leeway on how Ukrainian forces can use ATACMS. Already, some of these lawmakers are pushing the Biden administration to lift all restrictions on how Ukraine could use long-range U.S. weapons in Russian territory.
Auchincloss, for example, wants the administration to approve of Ukraine using U.S. weapons to strike at key Russian oil refineries near Moscow in a bid to kneecap one of the Kremlin’s most important sources of revenue for its war machines. What is “more meaningful than battlefield tactical successes, is disabling your enemy’s means of production and distribution,” Auchincloss said. “They are within range for oil refineries around Moscow that account for a third to 40 percent of its refined petroleum.”
Ukraine’s allies in Washington also hope a potential U.S. decision can push fellow NATO allies France and Britain to lift their own restrictions on how Ukraine uses their long-range weapons systems in Russia. But unlike past iterations of this now very repetitive debate on what the U.S. sends to Ukraine and when — from High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, to sending U.S. battle tanks or F-16 fighter jets — ATACMS may be the last major offensive weapons system left that the U.S. has to take off its shelf and hand to Ukraine. In short, the United States may have hit a ceiling on what types of systems it can send Ukraine — though not the quantity of aid it’s giving. The Biden administration is working to shovel the last of around $6 billion in remaining allocated aid to Ukraine by the time Trump takes office.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Muti-Domain, Layered Defense From Surface to Space.
Lockheed Martin is delivering multi-domain, layered defense from surface to space so the U.S. and allies can stay ahead of accelerating threats. Our proven, integrated air and missile defense systems connect 360-degree sensors, command and control networks, interceptors, and directed energy systems to defend with speed and precision when seconds count. Learn more. | | | | | MORE INSPECTORS GENERAL LEAVING: Two inspectors general of key intelligence agencies are heading for the exit before Trump takes office. CIA Inspector General ROBIN ASHTON is retiring from public service at the end of the year, our own NAHAL TOOSI confirms. Ashton’s departure was first reported on by the Project on Government Oversight. Nahal also confirms that the inspector general for the intelligence community is leaving as well. The departure of THOMAS MONHEIM, who leaves Jan. 3, 2025, was also reported first by the Project on Government Oversight. Loyal NatSec Daily readers will remember that worries within the community of government watchdogs have mounted since Trump’s election win that he will fire them or gut their offices once he takes office. G20 UKRAINE GRUMBLING: The final communiqué from this year’s G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro saw world leaders significantly water down rhetoric around Ukraine, and Western countries and Kyiv are fuming. As Voice of America’s PATSY WIDAKUSWARA reports, U.S. officials pushed for the sharpest possible language on Ukraine, but the final document only highlights human suffering and the negative impacts of the war in Ukraine to the global economy while sidestepping any condemnation of Russia. The language in this year’s document is also much less forceful than the language used in previous G20 summits. Russia is a member of the G20, limiting the ways the gathering could rebuke the Kremlin, but Western diplomats had held out hope for a more muscular rhetorical response.
Predictably, Kyiv isn’t thrilled. Zelenskyy, who wasn’t invited to the gathering by host Brazil, blasted the G20 for its “inaction” on the war (Brazil maintains warm ties with Moscow). TAKING MATTERS INTO THEIR OWN HANDS: Gangs in Haiti’s capital city launched a daring early morning attack in the Pétion-Ville neighborhood. But as the Associated Press’ EVENS SANON reports, they weren’t thwarted by Haitian police or members of a Kenyan-led multinational security force — instead, citizens took matters into their own hands. Civilians banded together with local police to repel the attack, which gang leader JIMMY “BARBECUE” CHÉRIZIER had announced on social media ahead of time. At least 28 suspected gang members were killed, per Haiti’s national police. IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team:@dave_brown24,@HeidiVogt, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi,@PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary,@reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, and @JGedeon1
| | | |   | | | | | HEGSETH’S POTENTIAL DEPUTIES: Former Veterans Affairs Secretary ROBERT WILKIE and former Deputy Defense Secretary DAVID NORQUIST are in the mix to be the no. 2 official at the Pentagon, our own PAUL MCLEARY, JACK DETSCH, CONNOR O’BRIEN and JOE GOULD report. GABBARD’S UPHILL BATTLE: Add The Wall Street Journal editorial board to the list of skeptics about Trump’s potential spy chief. In a Tuesday editorial, published Monday evening, the RUPERT MURDOCH-owned paper called for more scrutiny of former member of Congress TULSI GABBARD’s nomination for director of national intelligence. The conservative-leaning editorial board wrote that Trump “will need honest assessments of the threats, and not an intelligence chief animated above all by fear that any U.S. action other than appeasement will result in World War III.” “Ms. Gabbard has given no indication across her long political career that she is the right person for that vital duty,” the Journal editorial board continued.
|
| | | The lame duck session could reshape major policies before year's end. Get Inside Congress delivered daily to follow the final sprint of dealmaking on defense funding, AI regulation and disaster aid. Subscribe now. | | | | | | |
|
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — BIPARTISAN FOREIGN INFLUENCE BILL: A pair of senators is teaming up to protect U.S. research programs from foreign malign influence efforts. Sens. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) and ALEX PADILLA (D-Calif.) introduced legislation, shared first with NatSec Daily, that updates language in the CHIPS and Science Act to prohibit foreign adversaries like China, Russia and Iran from exploiting a loophole from supported programs under the semiconductor legislation. As it stands, the law prevents programs that try to get American researchers to act on their behalf from receiving benefits. But the law’s definition of these “malign foreign talent programs” doesn’t extend to ones that offer “indirect benefits.”
The bill has a strong chance of becoming law, owing to its bipartisan backing. (It’s worth noting that there is no evidence yet that foreign adversaries are exploiting this loophole.) “By clarifying language in existing law, our legislation would ensure no American scientific research ends up in the wrong hands,” Cornyn said in a statement. FROM THE TECH PODCAST: Biden held the final meeting of his term with Chinese leader Xi Jinping over the weekend, and the pair walked away with an agreement not to allow artificial intelligence to control nuclear weapons. But their joint statement amounts to a handshake deal — just as Trump is poised to return to the White House. On POLITICO Tech, GREGORY ALLEN from the Center for Strategic and International Studies joins host STEVEN OVERLY to explain why the deal matters and what doubts about AI-powered weapons remain.
| | OSPREY ORDEALS: A year after a crash killed eight service members in Japan, Osprey helicopters are back in service. But there are still questions about whether they should be used, as the Associated Press’ TARA COPP, KEVIN VINEYS and AARON KESSLER report. Ospreys, aircraft that operate like planes but land like helicopters, have been involved in a litany of crashes that have left 64 personnel killed and 93 injured since they came into service three decades ago. An AP review of investigative reports found that most of the problems are structural and not tied to pilot performance — there’s a mismatch between the weight of the craft, the size of propellers and other specifications on the craft due to the myriad purposes Ospreys are designed to serve.
Despite their challenges, however, they remain mainstays of the military’s efforts to transport — and in some cases rescue — servicemembers all around the world. “There’s no other platform out there that can do what the V-22 can do,” said former Osprey pilot BRIAN LUCE, “When everything is going well, it is amazing. But when it’s not, it’s unforgiving.” Luce survived two different crashes.
| | | | Policy change is coming—be the pro who saw it first. Access POLITICO Pro’s Issue Analysis series on what the transition means for agriculture, defense, health care, tech, and more. Strengthen your strategy. | | | | | | |
|
VAN HOLLEN VENTS: In an interview with NatSec Daily, the senator sharply rebuked Biden over his handling of U.S. ties with Israel and the crisis in the Middle East. “The president's Middle East policy has failed. And I think that the carnage and destruction of Gaza will forever be a stain on this record,” Van Hollen said. Van Hollen and several other progressive lawmakers are advancing a joint resolution of disapproval in a bid to block some U.S. arms sales to Israel. This move comes after the Biden administration walked back what was seen as an ultimatum to Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s government to improve the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza or face arms restrictions. When asked about this, Van Hollen said: “I think [Biden] has tunnel vision on this issue. He does some on the phone finger-wagging at Netanyahu. But then he never holds the prime minister responsible.”
| |
|
SWIPING AT SCHOLZ: Biden can take comfort in one thing when it comes to Ukraine — he’s not the only leader Ukraine is mad at. As our own CSONGOR KÖRÖMI reports, Zelenskyy issued a thinly veiled attack at German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ during his speech to the European Parliament today. “While some European leaders think about, you know, some elections or something like this at Ukraine’s expense, Putin is focused on winning this war,” he warned. “If anyone in Europe thinks they can sell Moscow Ukraine or any other country like the Baltic states or the Balkans, Georgia, Moldova, and gain something in return, let them remember this simple truth: No one can enjoy calm water amid a storm.
The remarks were interpreted immediately as a rebuke of Scholz, who spoke to Putin on the phone earlier this week ahead of expected elections in Germany.
| | — NATO Secretary General MARK RUTTE will name former North Macedonian Deputy Prime Minister RADMILA SEKERINSKA as NATO deputy secretary general, the alliance announced. — ERIK WOODHOUSE is now a partner in Crowell & Moring’s international trade and financial services groups. He previously was deputy assistant secretary for State for Counter Threat Finance and Sanctions. — The Trump-Vance transition has tapped former senior Pentagon IT official JACK WILMER to help craft its AI and cyber policy plan for the Defense Department, two people familiar told our friends at Morning Tech (for Pros!). — JANE LEE is now CEO of Invoke, a business consultancy and government affairs firm focused on American emerging tech innovators. She previously was chief government affairs officer for Rebellion Defense and is a McConnell, Senate Appropriations, House Budget and OMB alumni.
| | — RISHI IYENGAR, Foreign Policy: What an even more hawkish China policy could look like — BENEDICT VIGERS, Gallup: Half of Ukrainians want quick, negotiated end to war — DANIEL FRIED, Just Security: Biden’s final efforts on Ukraine — and Trump’s first moves
| |
— Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.: Debriefing the U.S. elections and their implications for Europe — Center for Strategic and International Studies' Project on Nuclear Issues, 9:30 a.m.: A discussion on a new report, "Project Atom 2024," focusing on "challenges associated with intrawar deterrence" — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 9:30 a.m.: Global Korea forum — McCain Institute; Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs; and the Foley Foundation, 9:30 a.m.: What's next for the U.S. hostage recovery and deterrence enterprise after the election — Wilson Center, 10 a.m.: Venezuela: Policy recommendations for a new administration — Atlantic Council, 10:45: An event to celebrate the bipartisan foreign policy accomplishments of retiring Senator BEN CARDIN Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who is amassing long-range strike capabilities against us. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is scaling up his defense industrial base to aid us.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: The Best Defense Has Layers.
Lockheed Martin Integrated Air and Missile Defense: The best defense has layers. Our systems provide multi-tier defenses that work in concert to defeat incoming threats. Learn more. | | | | |
| | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us
| | | | |
